My post is a reply to someone who advocated China should keep her defense spendings low. Given the constant threat from the Hegemon, I don’t know how someone supposedly with China’s interest at heart can suggest that
Actually, that issue is more nuanced than you thinks. Soviet Union overspent itself into oblivion. Military spending is transitory -- it does not last, so you should only spend as much as you need, and spend the rest on development. US is spending above global average (in percentage of GDP), so unless it can get benefit in excess of the cost, it's not a good strategy in long term. China is pending close to global average, so the effect is close to neutral pertaining to the global economic growth rate. Since no country see fit to invade China currently, it is more than likely enough. Whether it's excessive is another question, and Chinese government are more than competent in being the judge of that. Since military spending impose less burden comparatively to US, in the long run China would have advantage.
well said. I'd add that China's 2% GDP in most cases translate to more fighting power $ for $ than the west. so Beijing could see the 2% is equivalent to 3-4% in the west. Also a portion of PAP budget is on SF. From how heavily they are equipped, I wonder if they exist for certain contingency given they seem to be the best for urban warfare.
The US won the Cold War by outspending the soviets. From the American POV the money spend on military was worth every penny because it gave them the hegemony status. No country see fit to invade China? Don’t forget Taiwan, Diaoyudao, SCS, border with India are all Chinese territories. Not to mention the involvement of America and its allies. There are a lot of uncertain variable but it would be irresponsible to not assume the worst. If the other side drastically increases military spending then China would have to follow suit.
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Really? The Cold War was hardly binary. One thing that happened is the rise of the rest -- Germany, Japan, and yes, China. Within the victory of the Cold War lies the seed of the ultimate downfall. And you have a funny idea about security -- freedom from being invaded or threatened, not everyone else fork over whatever you wanted for free. Yes, US and its sidekicks are doing a lot of thing that annoys China, but ALL SHORT OF WAR.
And you haven't noticed that US is not in a good place right now. It's inflation is now around 5%. Why does that matter? Because interest rate must follow inflation eventually. And with US national debt of over 100% GDP, every increase of 1% interest rate means at least one percent of GDP of interest payment. If US government's take is about 25% GDP, 5% means 20% of the budget into the interest payment. And there isn't a lot of discretionary budget to begin with, so something is going to give. And you cannot print more money (i.e. QE) either, due to debt limit and that will increase the inflation further. The reason there are inflation is because there is not enough goods for the money that is floating around -- US simply is not producing enough comparing to consumption. And China is actively helping it along by exporting inflation (increase the price in USD) by letting RMB appreciate and canceling export tax rebate. And you are telling me that anyone has the means to drastically increase military spending? Yeah, right.
This is what keeps the anglos awake. Imagine a China with GDP of 30 trillion dollars spending 3 % on military. That's 900 billion dollars and much more than 2 trillion dollars in PPP terms. Add Chinese industrial capacity to churn equipment quickly from design to finished product and you have the most capable military force on earth.
Stuff of nightmares for them.
You think Japan India and the US would be comfortable with a China that spends 1 trillion dollars on the military? Remember this is just 3 percent of the economy and Beijing is not bankrupting itself.
America on the other hand will have to bankrupt itself trying to keep up with China's spending
That's why the US is working hard to prevent or slow down China's growth.
How does that solve any problems?
I found it puzzling that someone joins this forum back in 2009, and only now starting to contribute, and have so much opinons and so much to say. With up to now having 36 messages in the last couple of days.
That is some lurking or could be another members accounts? He does sound like our man from the A-Team though. Lol
I am merely saying that China's current %mil spending look good to me. what do I know? But Xi makes this budgetary decision. So what exactly are you questioning? If he keeps the % steady for the next few years, he might not have China's interest at heart?