How hasn't Xi cleaned them out after all the things Trump did? Imagine having an active 5th column in the country... or maybe he is giving them enough rope so that year after year they will get discredited by themselves
By forcing them overseas, they somehow became the most right-wing element in Anglo countries, even if it meant having to collaborate with white supremacists. Keep in mind that these folks were the Chinese elites during the 80s and 90s. It was only after Xi came to power that their ideas were considered obsolete, or in Chinese 被社会淘汰。After being marginalized, they become more radical in fighting the CCP (their former comrades).
If there's one thing I've learned over the years, lots of people pick money over country. Which, I mean, I get it. Being rich looks like it's a lot of fun. But it doesn't surprise me that the rich elite from the 80's and 90's have major qualms about the CCP now that they've got theirs.
I'm surprised he only said 2020. There are predictions from very large organizations saying China will surpass the US by 2018 in market exchange rates.
I dont know what some small number of people have said before.
But the most prelevant opinion among the vast majority of "experts/analysts" in the West, were saying that China could surprass the US by 2050
Probably, but I see a lot of complacency too. Lots of people justifying every failure. I don't like how overly hopeless gadgetcool is but I agree that most actions the government takes are just somehow 100% always justified as perfect unless there is an OBVIOUS mistake that can't be brushed under the rug. This won't help now that it's clear Biden is taking an adversarial approach to China much like Trump, and China can no longer skate on by using trade as a tool to support its growth.
China dropping from 10% growth rates down to 8% was seen as completely normal and some even justified it as intentional! Many thought it would continue at 8% for 20 years so as to catch up to Western levels of development before finally slowing down, but no, literally the year after it broke below and kept going down.
Government then sets 6% growth rate and everyone eats that up as completely acceptable. Justifying it in every which way. Complacency.
Just 5 years before that 6% growth rate was set, people were talking about 8-10% being an obvious reality since Chinese will do what Japan and Korea and Taiwan and Singapore did. And I think they should be still, but everyone else thinks it's just not possible. I assume we will hear about how its much harder with a larger population or how the other countries were actively aided by the West, etc etc etc just BS excuses.
So then even by 2050 China will not catch up to 2050 Western European standards let alone US standards. I assume if Chinese growth rate drops to 4% and government insists it's ok for any myriad of ridiculous justifications the people will swallow it up. Hilarious complacency.
I didn't see Japans growth rate drop till it reached American standards of living. Yet people here will complain with more excuses, that Japan went 'too far' due to the asset pricing bubble that followed or again that it was aided by the West. As if the alternative is having 3rd world standard of living for decades (rather than extremely fast growth that causes some troughs but makes everyone richer, more advanced, more developed faster).
East Asian cultures never prided themselves on risk-taking or standing out, being creative, etc. The CCP stamps it out even more-so than the natural inclination, making the country even less progressive in terms of risk-taking than Japan and Korea (both of which have lower productivity per man-hour than Italy!!!). The EASY work has been done, now China has to catch up in high technology and overall productivity. And people assume the same catch-up will happen as has happened for the last 40 years with only hard work alone.
Don't confuse a large mass of population (1.4b people) + hard work ethic (natural East Asian trait) with what is actually required for future growth to be unlocked. China would naturally have reached the paltry Latin American levels of development it has reached now with whatever government it would have had (and probably even higher).
If China had America's population it would have a GDP the size of Germany right now, even adjusting for PPP it would barely be above Japan. The work that needs to be done now requires not just work ethic, or good state planning, or economies of scale. It requires constructive open criticism and risk-taking.
To conclude, I saw an article here posted about a Chinese private space venture and some people shat on it because the rocket exploded, just to save face because people from East Asia and especially China are embarrassed by any failures! While in the West people like Elon Musk are actively encouraged despite every rocket exploding back when he first started, and even now with the new Starship. And I see that even with Elon Musk with the multitude of failures the Starship test articles have suffered, people here still can't get out of the groove of laughing and making funny comments about how much of a failure these tests are, coming up with all kinds of reasons why it isn't working. If this is similar to the attitude the nation ahs then China will never ever catch-up till the West is a steaming pile of ruin due to absolute decline (from its own demographic immigrant problems) and not from China surpassing it due to relative growth.
escobar
Brigadier
Same complacent attitude on foreign policy or QUAD...
I disagree there, I actually think Chinese foreign policy should be even more aggressive and is acting too weak currently. The Anglo nations are threatened by a non-White country displacing them. Very happy with how aggressive China is during the Alaska meeting.
escobar
Brigadier
@AndrewS
You like too much to mention a future that is not yet real
For now it US showing it can impose economic sanction.
Until CN can develop alternatives, US controls key chokepoints and can speak to China from a position of strength.
And CN was scared to use the RE card in the trade war with Trump
You like too much to mention a future that is not yet real