escobar
Brigadier
Yes, that's what I mean. CN foreign policy need more boldness and aggressiveness. For now still too much emotionally based.
This useless Alaska meeting can be a start but still not really impressed. We will see.
This useless Alaska meeting can be a start but still not really impressed. We will see.
Very correct reading of the whole situation but let me add some counterpoints regarding growth rates.
If China could allow all foreign suppliers to take part in their core technology space and then China became a fully vassal US state and allowed from the US then it could grow its GDP much much faster.
The way I see it, this 6 per cent growth rate ("6 and above" actually as stated from the Premier) is for leaving space for policy makers to invest in R&D and have their own core technologies to then later support the ecosystems built upon them.
So it is more of, lets stop building more floors on our skyscraper because our foundations are rather weak. Thus, lets focus more on the foundation, and later on build more floors based on a robust foundation.
However, as you noted, China must not rest and think everything is ok, there are still many major reforms to be done.
Legal System, Mature Institutions for R&D, bring local gov finances under control and stop local gov skirting around the financial debt regulations. Also, more transparency on regulation making, legal cases.And most important close the rural-urban income divide (started with the war on absolute proverty, but there is still work to be done)
IMO Xi is already working on a lot of these areas, however from an outsider's view there are still some entrenched interests which are resisting some reforms (i have to say though, that i laughed my face off when they pulled the Ant IPO and started all these regulations. Late action, but better late than never).
China has made a lot a lot of progress in these past 10 years and it must also keep it up on the future.
I already posted a link to the Global Innovation Index for 2020 where it shows the multitude of how China advanced in innovation from 2010 to 2020. I might actually make a more detailed post later or even a seperate thread to showcase some charts so that you can understand what i mean regarding China's accelerating pace on R&D.
Instead of focusing on the headline growth rate, I think it's better to focus on the implications of a specific growth rate.
At 10% per year, it means the economy doubles in 7 years.
At 7% per year, the economy doubles in 10 years.
At 5% per year, the economy doubles in 15 years.
Your opinion that Japan only slowed down after it became rich is not accurate.
After 1973, Japan's average growth rate dropped to 4.2% per year.
At that point, Japan was at roughly 60% of US GDP per capita.
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Japan was $425 billion in 1973 and $997 billion in 1978, by 1988 it was over $3 trillion and reached $5.45 trillion in 1995 (before dropping a lot and stabilizing at a lower number for years).
As a % of the US it was
1973: 31.0% of the US
1978: 43.8% of the US
1988: 58.1% of the US
1995: 71.1% of the US (peak relative to the US)
Source is UN data which might be better than a blog and an organization which is likely more biased in use of data than the UN.
I would also like to add a point, you just said Japan slowed to 4.2% after it reached 60% of US GDP per capita. So you prove my point. It only markedly slowed down after it reached European levels of income. It was already a fully developed country. China is slowing down to 6% (are we going to be told slower in 2-3 years?!) after 2 revisions down in the last 8 years.
Is China at 60% of US GDP per capita? No, it's not even reached 20% yet. And when you adjust to PPP the #s are still nowhere near 60%, not even 30%. So China is not following the Japanese growth trajectory any more. I'm sure the excuses from many uses will relate to bigger population instead of complacency and rigid state thinking with a never questioning populace. Population needs to keep government honest, not just about simple ass issues that placate the public like some idiot official stealing funds or showing off his Rolex.
Your UN figures show Japan as 31% of US GDP per capita in 1973.
There's no way you can argue that Japan was already a developed country when it slowed down to 4.2% after 1973
Did you conveniently skip those same UN statistics I provided showing Japan moving from $425 billion in 1973 to $997 billion in 1978, 5 years doubling is 4.2% annual growth? Lol even with inflation and currency appreciation that wouldn't be true.
Lol seeing all these people anxious about China's GDP growth. They remind me a lot of Gordon Chang.
China is such a huge country that I wouldnt bother too much about the national GDP growth but instead I would look on individual cities and provinces.
Then I would also see rural and urban population's discretionary income growth(whats left after housing, food,taxes, clothing expenses are accounted for)
The Chinese gov is not stupid and thats why it is cracking down on housing expenses. And thats why (partially) it is cracking down on platform pricing commitions and many other things as well.
The only "danger" for the economy is the local gov debt which has being aknowledged by China as the NPC's next 5 year plan characterised it as a "national security issue"
So i am expecting the central gov to turn its ammunition towards the local gov, and because of being a national security issue, the local gov wont find it easy to avoid reducing their debt
China is such a huge country that I wouldnt bother too much about the national GDP growth but instead I would look on individual cities and provinces.
Then I would also see rural and urban population's discretionary income growth(whats left after housing, food,taxes, clothing expenses are accounted for)
The Chinese gov is not stupid and thats why it is cracking down on housing expenses. And thats why (partially) it is cracking down on platform pricing commitions and many other things as well.
The only "danger" for the economy is the local gov debt which has being aknowledged by China as the NPC's next 5 year plan characterised it as a "national security issue"
So i am expecting the central gov to turn its ammunition towards the local gov, and because of being a national security issue, the local gov wont find it easy to avoid reducing their debt
You seem to misunderstand the stats.
What matters is the real growth rate of 4.2% in local currency, which is what determines improvements in living standards.
You can have breakneck nominal growth of 10% per year.
But if your inflation rate is also 10%, then you actually have economic stagnation.
On exchange rate appreciation, didn't you learn from my previous post directed specifically to you? I've reposted it below.
This is really basic economics.