As long as no hawkish and cultist think tankers muddled up the negotiation.
As a sweetener maybe China can open more factory/manufacturing jobs in US similar to Fuyao.
As a sweetener maybe China can open more factory/manufacturing jobs in US similar to Fuyao.
US and China are competing over 5G, AI, Quantum Computing, etc.. etc.. Biden presidency will not change the course of US - China rivalry. You would be a fool to think US - China relations will reset under Biden or any body else.
Hi Petrolicious88,
Spot on bro, Trump had done all the heavy lifting and Biden had inherited a great bargaining tool, but the question is will China trade its core interest for an injustice/illegal sanction, the answer is no way. What Chinese will do is like the phase 1 deal, purchase what it needs and will simultaneously develop its weakness. There are 2 sectors that needs immediate action, Aircraft engine and Semiconductor, both will be address within the next 5 years.
I think Biden will need to choose between confronting China vs confronting Russia. Russia likely is going to be in a much worse geopolitical shape than China coming out the elections (since China is already at rock bottom with the US and its still chugging). The democrats seem to be of the view that they will cooperate with China on some areas (namely climate change) while competing in other areas (5G, AI, quantum computing) which in all fairness china can live with. I'm not sure what Russia can bring to the table to the US, since they aren't aligned on climate change, and Russia's confrontation with the US seems more direct/military in nature. Perhaps that is why russia is eager right now to cement an actual alliance with China.
In all honesty, China will likely not be allowed to compete in the US market for telecoms and AI, while it might reach an accord to limit exports of electric vehicles robotics to the US, similar to accords reached between US/Japan in the 80's. As long as the US can feel it is not overwhelmed and can maintain independent capabilties in AI/quantum/robotics, chip restrictions may subside. I also dont think the US will go too overboard on aircraft engine sanctions against china, mainly because China isn't threatening dominance like with huawei but rather just looking for parity. Also, aircraft engines are way less important compared to semiconductors, since China does have world leading HSR which is an imperfect substitute for the latest planes. There is unfortunately no substitute for semiconductors.
Hi j17wang,
That's a very good summary, Russia is the democratic party bogie man due to their Ukraine colored revolution activities, but it also happen to China in HK, so its obvious that China and Russia will joint hand in common core policy.
Regarding Semiconductor, I don't have the expertise to answer, but from my personal and business point of view, if you denied me a product or service, I will look for an alternative by buying from others or I do it myself (even its expensive) to survive, and in the future if you try to renew that relationship, I will tell you to FXXK OFF!!!!
....But China is rational, they will still buy needed US product while waiting for domestic equivalent replacement to mature.
That's a very good summary, Russia is the democratic party bogie man due to their Ukraine colored revolution activities, but it also happen to China in HK, so its obvious that China and Russia will joint hand in common core policy.
Regarding Semiconductor, I don't have the expertise to answer, but from my personal and business point of view, if you denied me a product or service, I will look for an alternative by buying from others or I do it myself (even its expensive) to survive, and in the future if you try to renew that relationship, I will tell you to FXXK OFF!!!!
....But China is rational, they will still buy needed US product while waiting for domestic equivalent replacement to mature.
Last edited:
Anyone listening to this Chinese Prof 沈逸 ?
His talk on Bilibili ranks amongst the top rated political analayst videos. His topics touches upon the hegemony of US, Trump Biden and world geopolitics.
Sadly no english subtitle available.
His talk on Bilibili ranks amongst the top rated political analayst videos. His topics touches upon the hegemony of US, Trump Biden and world geopolitics.
Sadly no english subtitle available.
Hi j17wang,
That's a very good summary, Russia is the democratic party bogie man due to their Ukraine colored revolution activities, but it also happen to China in HK, so its obvious that China and Russia will joint hand in common core policy.
Regarding Semiconductor, I don't have the expertise to answer, but from my personal and business point of view, if you denied me a product or service, I will look for an alternative by buying from others or I do it myself (even its expensive) to survive, and in the future if you try to renew that relationship, I will tell you to FXXK OFF!!!!
Ansy,
I agree, although I would also add that china doesnt need to develop the whole IT stack, but rather just the portions that have the longest lead times and expose vulnerabilities. Non-critical components that can be developed quickly, might not require an indigenous solution.
Also hit the nail that china must act rationally, I am strongly against blanket bans of US technology from the chinese market, provided that thier market share can be kept manageable as to not infringe on china's national security. There is alot china can learn from the US, even if tthey are an adversary state.
Also hit the nail that china must act rationally, I am strongly against blanket bans of US technology from the chinese market, provided that thier market share can be kept manageable as to not infringe on china's national security. There is alot china can learn from the US, even if tthey are an adversary state.
Hi j17wang,
Same here bro, China had already passed the Victim card game had grown in stature diplomatically, It had matured. Never had I've heard any insult level against the US, while the American never gaved China the courtesy it deserved. Not only in Gov't but the people itself, It's truly is a Chinese century.
Hi j17wang,
Same here bro, China had already passed the Victim card game had grown in stature diplomatically, It had matured. Never had I've heard any insult level against the US, while the American never gaved China the courtesy it deserved. Not only in Gov't but the people itself, It's truly is a Chinese century.
Last edited:
Whilst it's all very well and good and Confucian to turn the other cheek, i'm of the opinion that costs must be incurred by the american leaders/policymakers who pushed for these tech bans/pogroms against Chinese firms and scientists. We can start with the US turning over Pompeo and Cotton and Navarro to the MSS as a show of good faith.
Hi hashtagpls,
It's natural to get angry, what the American had done is truly despicable and underhanded. They wanted you to act their way to justified their action, why give them the satisfaction. The Confucian way is to see a person develop itself and act for the collective good. From what I've read, the goal is to achieve a Comprehensive National Power, it follow the thinking of SUN TZU, If you had reach a stage were you had achieved an overwhelming advantage, you don't need to fight to secure your objective. The philosophy of CHI , It's like water my friend, either you drown if you resist or survive by going with the flow.