Decoupling denied: Japan Inc. lays its bets on China
US-China trade rift creates havoc and opportunity for Asia's economic giants
MITSURU OBE, Nikkei staff writer
FEBRUARY 10, 2021 06:00 JST
TOKYO -- In 1978, when Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping visited a factory belonging to what is now Panasonic Corp. in Osaka, he made Chairman Konosuke Matsushita an offer he couldn't refuse.
That year, China's economy lay in ruins following the Cultural Revolution. But Deng had an idea. Turning to Matsushita, his guide on the tour, he said: "You are called the god of management. Will you help us modernize our economy?"
Matsushita, fatefully, agreed. The following year he traveled to China and told Beijing factory workers, "You are working very hard to learn to make TVs. If you keep up the effort, you'll catch up with Japan in several years and start developing new technologies."
He was right. In 1987, Panasonic established Japan's first Chinese joint venture in Beijing, training 250 assembly line workers in Japan for half a year to finally launch local production in 1989.
Matsushita did not live to see the fruits of this bargain: Today, China accounts for 1.7 trillion yen ($16 billion), or a quarter of Panasonic's business, including sales within China, and exports mainly to Japan.
But while Matsushita's farsighted championing of China created what is today one of Panasonic's biggest markets, it also created its most powerful competitor. Today, China churns out half of the world's refrigerator and washing machine production and 85% of air conditioners, according to Panasonic. Homegrown brands like Midea and Haier now hold a dominant place in the global appliance market, leaving Japanese companies largely in the dust.
Tetsuro Homma has seen the story play out since the beginning. He was one of the first Panasonic employees to learn Chinese in 1986 in preparation for the company's big China push. Today, he is CEO of Panasonic's in-house China & Northeast Asia Company. And he is presiding over a key decision by the 102-year-old company: whether to move its appliance headquarters, or at least some of its global business functions, to China.
"The operations have been led by Japan because it was the biggest market. The situation is different today," Homma says. With about 52,000 employees and some 80 subsidiaries in China, Panasonic's launch of the China & Northeast Asia Company in 2019 shows that the company is looking beyond the U.S.-China trade war and into the next 10 to 20 years.
"I don't think that the Japanese manufacturing industry could survive globally without being present in a market as big as China's," Homma told Nikkei Asia, interviewed by video link. Competition is fierce in China because it attracts players around the world. "Being able to compete in China is a ticket to competing in the global market," he said.
Panasonic's technology still leads its Chinese competitors, but only just. And it struggles to carve out high-end niches in the market it once ruled, in an effort to compete.
One example of such a niche is the EH-XD 30, a $620 Wi-Fi-enabled hair dryer. Released in August, it syncs with your smartphone, achieving optimal moisture levels by adjusting the amount of electrified particles it blows into hair to the UV and humidity in the atmosphere. Then there is a smart toilet that measures body fat and urine content and sends the data to your smartphone.
"Japanese consumers tend to avoid something unusual. By contrast, Chinese consumers like a new product or a new technology," Homma said. "Unless you have one of these, you cannot get their [Chinese consumers'] attention."
Market squeeze, shrinking leads
Panasonic's decision to further Sinify its operations is a decisive vote of confidence in a trading model that it pioneered: bargaining technology to China in exchange for access to the largest market in the world.
It is a game that it managed to stay ahead of for four decades, maintaining a technological lead over its Chinese competitors -- albeit a shrinking one. Most multinational corporations are in the same boat, whether German carmakers or U.S. communications equipment companies. They play by China's rules and give away technology as the price of market access.
The strategy comes with its own risks. Ke Ding, a researcher at the Japan External Trade Organization, said that direct investment in China does make it easier for China to catch up to Japanese companies. To avoid import duties and transport costs, "foreign companies try to procure parts locally by training local suppliers in parts production and creating a supply chain in China," he said.
Foreign companies also serve as a training ground for local managers, who may go on to set up their own companies or, later, become recruited by Chinese rivals. But despite all that, Japanese companies are still protective of their presence in China, he said. "Fast-growing China is a more profitable market than mature economies, and more profit means more money for R&D and keeping ahead of the competition," Ke Ding said.
The other reason Japan Inc. invests in China is the presence of a vast and sophisticated supply chain. Complex products like cars require a huge number of components and a large supplier network, which exist in China but not necessarily in up-and-coming competitors like Southeast Asia. In fact, "companies that have moved to Southeast Asia often have to import parts from China due to a lack of local suppliers," Ke Ding said.
Panasonic's example illustrates the shifting fortunes of the two largest Asian economies: In 2000, Japan's economy was four times as big as China's. In 2010, China overtook Japan, and today it is nearly three times as large. Even pressure from its own government and the U.S. has not been enough to wean Japan Inc. off its dependence on the China market.
In the wake of the Sino-American trade war and the "decoupling" of the two countries' technology sectors, the U.S. government has been pushing its multinational corporations like Apple to move supply chains away from China. Washington expects allied governments, like Japan, to follow suit. Washington has also banned any companies from selling U.S. technology to Huawei Technologies, the Chinese telecommunications infrastructure giant.
But while Tokyo has tried to wean its companies off China, even offering subsidies to Japanese companies to exit the China market, it is clear that leaving China is easier said than done.
Japanese companies operating in China remain bullish: Just 7.2% of them said they were moving or considering moving production out of China in a September survey by JETRO, down from 9.2% in 2019.
Naoto Saito, chief researcher at the Daiwa Institute of Research, said: "Japan Inc. is actually increasing its investment in China, while also seeking to set reasonable limits due to geopolitical risks, and remaining aware of avoiding overdependence." He added: "It's unthinkable for companies not to consider the Chinese market at all."
But trading technology for access has its drawbacks: Many Japanese industries have been sacrificed as Chinese companies turned around and used their technology to compete with them abroad. Japan's motorcycle industry, high-speed trains, and, of course, electrical appliances are some industries where Japanese investment in China created powerful international competitors. Others will undoubtedly follow.
"We are probably three to four years ahead of the Chinese," said Norio Nakajima, president of Murata Manufacturing, the world's largest maker of capacitors. But "their pace of catch-up is getting faster."
Japan Inc. is mostly doubling down on China, and one prime example is Toyota Motor. The carmaker took the opposite approach to Panasonic in the late 1970s: After Deng returned from his 1978 visit to Japan, the Chinese government asked Toyota to come to China to open local production. The Japanese automaker declined, choosing to focus on moving production to the U.S. Toyota now recognizes this as a strategic error of historic proportions.
In 1994, Toyota belatedly announced a plan to enter China, but it took until 2000 to form its first joint venture in Tianjin. Today, its sales numbers tell the tale: At rivals Honda Motor and Nissan Motor, China accounted for about 30% of sales volume in the fiscal year ended March 2020, but at Toyota that share was only 18%.