So how do you guys think the Biden email scandal will affect the election?
Is this the one raised by Giuliani?
I don't think it will swing votes, Giuliani is untrusted compared to Comey.
Mr T
Senior Member
I think that certainly a Biden administration would dial back the random trade disputes. But that doesn't mean everything would be sunshine and lollypops. Democrats have historically been more protectionist than the Republicans, so they might pressure the White House to not let up too much.
The issue for China is that Biden would seek to work together in a more coordinated fashion with other countries to counter China's foreign and military policy. That's not necessarily better for China than Trump randomly lashing out.
Assuming the missile actually has the range, if North Korea did start flying ICBMs over Hawaii or near the continental US that would damage China's interests by requiring the White House to take a more aggressive stance in East Asia. The public outcry would not allow Biden to have a passive foreign policy.
Trump was never guaranteed to win. At the start of the year he had a big deficit in his approval ratings and he was behind Biden nationally. Covid-19 has hurt Trump further but that's only because he's dealt with the situation appallingly.
The issue for China is that Biden would seek to work together in a more coordinated fashion with other countries to counter China's foreign and military policy. That's not necessarily better for China than Trump randomly lashing out.
Assuming the missile actually has the range, if North Korea did start flying ICBMs over Hawaii or near the continental US that would damage China's interests by requiring the White House to take a more aggressive stance in East Asia. The public outcry would not allow Biden to have a passive foreign policy.
Trump was never guaranteed to win. At the start of the year he had a big deficit in his approval ratings and he was behind Biden nationally. Covid-19 has hurt Trump further but that's only because he's dealt with the situation appallingly.
The last time in the US where the incumbent didn't win was with a guy who had been vice-president before being president.
I think Trump will be re-elected.
George Bush Senior lost his re-election didn't he? Unless thats who you were mentioning
bajingan
Senior Member
That was way back when there was no covid and economic meltdown at the same time, if more than 200k americans dead and more than 25 million unemployed is not enough to unseat trump then there is no hope for the land of the free and brave lol
Well, he did get elected to begin with, and the opposing candidate was Hillary, so I think we can take that as granted.
I think both political parties in the US are utterly broken.
Gerald Ford lost after succeeding Nixon.
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Mr T
Senior Member
Why do you think the US polls are so wrong, then? They've consistently shown Biden ahead, not just nationally but also in the states he needs to win. In fact he's ahead in more states than he needs for the 270 electoral college votes. He's also probably less likely to suffer from poor turnout as postal voting is hugely up in many swing states.
The only glimmer of hope for Trump is that the pollster (Trafalgar) that correctly called Michigan for Trump in 2016 is showing him narrowly ahead or in a tie in some places he needs to win. But Trafalgar were wrong in other states in 2016 and aren't regarded as a gold-standard when it comes to polling.