Day One - The War with Iran

Utelore, it will also depend how Iran and Syria use their S-300 systems. When NATO aircraft went into Serbia, NATO knew Soviet SAM systems inside out. Problem was that the Serbians played around with their SAMs smartly and prevented NATO aircraft from inflicting heavy damage on their armed forces. Also remember that even though the Arab nations haven't had a good record with their air force, they fared MUCH better against the Israelis with SAMs. During '73, the Israelis thought lowly of Arab air defense units. That was until the Israelis took brutal losses.

I do realize the Israelis managed to knock out Syria's dense SAM network during the 80's, but that was because the Syrians were stupid for not changing the positions of their SAMs on a regular basis. My point is that if the Syrians and the Iranians play smart, they may be able to give the Israelis or the Americans a very bloody nose.

Now, if the US attacks Iran, question will be whether or not the US will be able to fare off against both Syria and Iran. And if Israel gets involved (meaning that they start to not only bomb Syria but decide to push deeper in Syria with troops), then that would escalate into a very BAD situation indeed. Hell, Pakistan has stated countless number of times that they are against military strikes. What that translates to is if there is a major war in the Middle East, other nations will definetely get involved.

I don't know where it got started that Syria is the second strongest military force in the Middle East. Syria is far weaker than Israel, Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and even weaker than Iraq when Iraq is not under foreign occupation.

As for Syrian deterrence, there is none.

Janes defence has reported years ago that Israel obtained S-300's from Greece. Truth is, they obtained it from Serbia in an ams deal that violated the international embargo punishing Serbia for practicing genocide against Bosnian muslims. The western press tries hard to cover this fact by substituting middlemen (Greece, Croatia) to hide what Israel has done. But they are grateful for Israel for sharing the S-300's specs with Britain and America (for a price).

It is also the reason for Russia upgrading the missiles for the S-300 shortly afterwards. Syria does not have any of these upgraded missiles, and Syria has no reason to rely on their S-300's to do anything.

Syria's best defence is to not defend itself at all and invite invading troops all the way to Damascus. They can much better fight a guerrila campaign than a conventional war.

The system was obtained by Croatia from Yugoslavia in 1995 and then secretly transferred to Israel during the final days of the regime of Croatian President Franjo Tudjman. The sources said the deal was arranged by Croatian Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Zagorec, responsible for the military relationship between Jerusalem and Zagreb.

Click to expand...

Sorry Ute, but thats completely BS, Yugoslavia never had S-300. They evalueted Buk M1, but didnt even bougth that one. I consider myself as some sort of 'semi expert' of Yugoslavian military I havent heard anything that Yugoslavia to have that system. One Venik Aviations article mentioned that SFRY was to purchase that system (its Sa-12 version) from Soviet Union, prior the dissolution, but nothing came from that deal....but cannot discuss more, Sauna is waiting....

Fairthought, if you include Syria's massive WMD stockpile, then Syria would be ranked as one of the most powerful states in the Middle East. And I did mention that Syria has a good hand in guerilla warfare (the Lebanon experience). Also, as for the Israelis having the S-300, I wouldn't doubt it, but do they have the exact system Syria purchased? Syria purchased one of the latest systems while the Israeli one could be an earlier one.

Guys, please realize that a US or Israeli strike on Iran would undoubtedly kill many Iranian civillians. And i need to remind you one thing: These civillians have family members. If US strikes kill Iranian civillians, then no doubt the blood of their slain family members will result in one thing on their mind: VENGEANCE!

If i am an Iranian, and a US air strike kills my mother, then I will swear revenge on the Americans. Revenge is a very powerful motivation. So, all of you have to think of all aspects of a US strike on Iran. In fact, US strikes on Iran will not weaken Iran, but strengthen Iran. The only way for America to win is to kill all 67 million Iranian citizens, but that would be genocide.

Just a quick thought for you.

Untill very recently, Iran had been moving quite steadily away from Radicalism and towards a form of tolerant secularism. The crisis that exists today, does not reflect any particular change in Iranian capabilites but rather the Iranian World perception.

In short, why has the Iranian public apparently radicalised to much so quickly (they voted this new Prime Minister in).?

Could it be that they have seen a country to their east Occupied by a Powerful, Hostile and Aggresive Nucleur Armed Country? Could it be be that they have seen the Country to their West occupied by the same, Powerful, Hostile and Aggresive Nucleur Armed Country.

Could it be that many other countries in the region have had for a while or recently acquired Nucleur weapons?

Looking at the region through Iranian eyes, I am not surprised that the General Public is crying for Nucleur deterrance. I know that if I was an Iranian I would be!

SampanViking, I couldn't have said it better myself. The average Iranian has seen their neighboring country invaded and torn apart. They see a Jewish state that has nuclear weapons. They are getting more and more nervous every day about the possibility of a war. Iranians are not violent people. They are just like the average American: they want what is best for their family and their country. They listen to American music and watch American movies. They want to normalize relations with America as well. Yet they go ahead and elect a very unpredictable president in office. Why? Because they are afraid of war and violence and they want to see their country protected from any threat. But just because they are afraid of war doesn't mean they are afraid to defend themselves: just ask the Iraqis how tough the Persians were during the 80's.

Everyones forget to talk about how close is Iran from Russia. They share the Caspian sea together. Compared to other countries bombed by the US they had no natural border link with Russia like Iraq, serbia. Iran could easily get weapons from Russia and america cannot effectively stop it especially due to no forces in the Caspians sea area. Systems such anti ship missles, manpads or SAMs can easily be transported in legally or illegally (esp the if Rus gov says so).

I thought i comment further on the implications on Iraq. theres over 200,000 shia security personal plus unknown shia milita. The worst scenerio is that they revolt. U all said that could happen.

How americans are deployed in iraq makes it easy for them to suffer heavy causalities. Alot of US troops are imbedded with iraqi army units to train them, thus surrouded by iraqis. the US military know this thus they would have to prepare troops for any air attacks on iran for example put them in formation to resist any counter attack. the problem is the iranians will spot this tactically change thus the element of suprise is lost, unless the us is willing to lose troops to achieve suprise.

Also on a minor and less important note Iran has over 500 al qeada suspects or members in prision including one of Bin ladan sons they rpob be released into iraq.

Let me provide inputs to this "Tom Clancy novel". Iran is not Iraq. Iran's population is 2.5 times larger than Iraq, and almost all of one type of Muslim religion, Shia. It's land area is 3 times larger than Iraq, much of western part is mountainous. It's regular army numbers 540,000 men. But its militia numbers 9,000,000 men. It has 3 Kilo class subs currently retrofitted by the Russians to fire the Club-S missiles. It manufactures its own Exocet-type missiles with Chinese help. It can be launched from shore, to effect a missile blockade of the Strait of Hormuz(mouth of Persian Gulf, where 40% of the world's oil flows) It manufactures its own ballistic missiles(Shahab series) with North Korean help. They also make their own TOW type ATGMs. Supposely they have built tunnels in the mountain ranges(with N.Korean help) to hide their military infrastructure. If they cannot make their own weapons, then they buy them. Like the Austrian Steyr .50 cal sniper rifle. They bought 800 of them. It probably can punched thru armoured vests like the kind worn by U.S. troops. :coffee:

The biggest danger from Syria is probably her ballistic missile force. It has about 70 Chinese DF-15s(transferred from Libya) and about 200 to 300 Scud-Ds(guidance system upgraded with Chinese/N.Korean help). They are a direct threat to Israel, because 70% of Israel's population is concentrated around Tel Aviv, making it an ideal missile target. These missiles will be hard to defend against because of the high terminal velocity(4,000 - 6,000 mph) and detachable warheads. On the side they have Russian Kornet ATGMs. These missiles may or may not able to punched thru the frontal armour of M1 tanks, but they should have no problem punching thru the sides.:coffee:

Syria doesn't have advanced missile versions of the S-300. They tried to purchase some, but Russia wouldn't sell under heavy pressure from the US and Israel. All Syria was able to buy was vehicle mounted Sa-7 strela air defense weapons. In spite of the fact that these weapons are ordinarily shoulder launched, they are rigged by the Russians to fail if they are ever removed from from their vehicles. This allows Israel to monitor their position at all times.

This of course only pushes Syria to seek other arms dealers besides Russia. North Korea has been particularly helpful in helping Syria acquire Scud-D technology. The Scud -C and Scud-D missiles, when fired in salvo, are considered capable of penetrating Israel's Arrow-2 ballistic misssile defense system.

Another particularly effective option in Syria's arsenal is their special forces. Their special forces have shown the ability to infiltrate and practice reconnaisance in Israel Proper (not just the Golan heights). Combined with contacts with palestinians fighters and Hezbollah, they can actually plant a WMD in Israel regardless of any missile defense capabilities Israel develops.