CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[Blackstone]

China is, and will at that time still be a great world power.

But number one?

I do not believe they will have surpassed the US Navy in numbers or technology in that time frame.

In fact, I do not believe China has plans to build 11 carriers and 11 large flat deck LHA/Ds that can act as carriers too.

Or, that they plan to build upwards of 100 Type 052Ds and Type 055s combined, or a force of 55 nuclear attack submarines.

Oo it is arguable that they will, with their current plans, not surpass the US Navy at all.

Time will tell.

Agreed. I don't believe there's a realistic chance PLAN could match USN power, technology, and training globally in my lifetime, let alone exceed it. Frankly, I doubt PLAN could do it in my grandchildren's lifetime.

 

[Jeff Head]

Agreed. I don't believe there's a realistic chance PLAN could match USN power, technology, and training globally in my lifetime, let alone exceed it. Frankly, I doubt PLAN could do it in my grandchildren's lifetime.

Well...too much can happen to extend it out indefinitely, one way or the other.

But short of some cataclysm (which if it knocked the US so far down would undoubtedly knock all the industrialized nations down), I do not see it happening, or even being planned for 2060.

That was my point.

 

[Equation]

That's what those British doubters and naysayers said about the US Navy could never catch up to the Royal Navy. Well well, time has change and so will the world.

 

[Equation]

Agreed. I don't believe there's a realistic chance PLAN could match USN power, technology, and training globally in my lifetime, let alone exceed it. Frankly, I doubt PLAN could do it in my grandchildren's lifetime.

But definitely more than enough to handle those Taiwan regime from misbehaving and trying to be independent from the Mainland. That's for sure.

 

[Lethe]

Undoubtedly China could, in the long-term, surpass American naval power if she so desired. The foundation of military power is economic power. This equation drove the United States to its present position of global dominance, and will also drive its decline relative to China.

The long-term question, therefore, is whether or not China will in fact desire to match or surpass the United States Navy. I believe that China will seek strategic parity with the United States, but that this does not necessarily imply a certain number of aircraft carriers, large amphibious vessels, or nuclear submarines. Rather, Chinese strategic geography will continue to dictate, as it does today, that a greater proportion of Chinese strength will reside in small and medium-sized vessels, in conventional as well as nuclear submarines.

Of course there are any number of other trends that will shape future dynamics of power. Within the military domain alone we will witness the continued, albeit slow, decline in the importance and pre-eminence of naval power itself, as air- and space-based power continues to develop, coupled with emergent forms of power such as cyber-power and new possibilities for the exercise of power opened up by nascent nano-technology, and genetic engineering.

 

[Yvrch]

In the late 90's, wih the Taiwan straight crisis, Asian financial crisis, Hong Kong handover, who would have thought China would be building her first overseas base in less than 20 years, and yet here we are.

Large enough to park a carrier?

My grandchildren, LoL.
Someone must be rubbing a large shiny ball really hard.
Most sensible people would be agnostic when it comes to this long range future.
It looks like a dose of reason and ridicule should fix this small hands mentality.
I can loan my pairs if any extra clarity is in dire need. LoL.

 

[Blackstone]

Undoubtedly China could, in the long-term, surpass American naval power if she so desired. The foundation of military power is economic power. This equation drove the United States to its present position of global dominance, and will also drive its decline relative to China.

Is it possible Chinese naval power could pass American naval power globally in the next 50 years? Yes, it's possible, because China's economy would be much larger in market exchange rates. But, is it probable (>50%)? I strongly doubt it. I fact, I don't believe it'll happen this Century, and for a variety of reasons, maybe not ever.

 

[Intrepid]

I do not believe they will have surpassed the US Navy in numbers or technology in that time frame.

In fact, I do not believe China has plans to build 11 carriers and 11 large flat deck LHA/Ds that can act as carriers too.

Or, that they plan to build upwards of 100 Type 052Ds and Type 055s combined, or a force of 55 nuclear attack submarines.

I think, the United States will not have the economical power to keep this fleet at a level of 11 carriers and same number of large flat deck LHA/Ds over the next 50 years.

 

[delft]

USN has been used to help interfere, together with US economic and financial power, since 1945 in many countries all over the World. US interference is now mostly limited to the military realm and if China's power, economic as well as military, grows over the next decades to the level where such interference doesn't work any more US will have no reason to maintain their huge navy even if at that time that navy is still larger than that of China.

 

[latenlazy]

Well...too much can happen to extend it out indefinitely, one way or the other.

But short of some cataclysm (which if it knocked the US so far down would undoubtedly knock all the industrialized nations down), I do not see it happening, or even being planned for 2060.

That was my point.

Right before the start of the 20th century the British said the same about the Germans.