CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[Blitzo]

I wasn't quite happy with some solutions on Fujian from the start, but IMHO, China should start working on second ship as soon as Fujian left the dock. China needs as many carriers as soon as possible, even with some flaws. So, if they need 2 years in dock and 2 years outside, that should be the tempo, at least for 2 or 3 CATOBARs, and during that time they should develop final version of nuclear carrier.

I also think that just one CATOBAR carrier is insufficient. And if China wants to increase the rate of pilot training and development of doctrines they should have built at least two of the Fujian type if not more. Nuclear supercarriers are supremely expensive, not just in acquisition costs but also maintenance. USS John F. Kennedy (CV-67) was a conventional supercarrier that the US operated for like 39 years. Which is perfectly respectable.

Everyone would agree that the PLAN will require additional CATOBAR carriers, but both of you are thinking on a scale that is a bit too short.

The question for the PLA, is whether it makes sense to pursue another CATOBAR carrier (whether 003 pattern or otherwise) without a pause, or with very little pause, after CV-18 Fujian.


Technological maturity is one reason why immediately going for a followup CATOBAR carrier after CV-18 may not be wise, after all it uses EM catapults and is a much larger and more capable ship than anything the Chinese naval shipbuilding industry has built before.


But it's also a matter of opportunity cost. CV-18 Fujian is not likely to enter service before 2025, and even then will take a couple of years to get fully ready for service. If they bought another carrier right after CV-18, it likely wouldn't enter service until 2027 and would also need additional time to get ready for service.
However, an additional carrier is also going to consume funds, crewing, and escorts, and time. Everyone seems to view the latter half of this decade as being a dangerous period in which the likelihood of conflict is heightened, which in turn means that having mature platforms with high readiness and best bang for buck is important. All of which is to say, buying a second CATOBAR carrier may result in a ship during that time which is unable to be properly combat ready and would only be drawing up valuable military, shipyard and monetary resources.


Or putting it simply -- perhaps the reason they haven't bought an additional CATOBAR carrier immediately after Fujian, is because they don't want to have another CATOBAR carrier that would only enter combat readiness in the end of the decade where it would be a suboptimal use of limited resources for a highly tense geostrategic environment, and that it only makes sense to do further CATOBAR procurement after that period if they project the geostrategic balance to be one that can become less risky and more in their favour.


Good procurement isn't just a matter of "more, as soon as possible" but rather buying the right things at the right time.

 

[Intrepid]

It is a question of leapfrogging and dealing with ressources.

 

[Atomicfrog]

Good procurement isn't just a matter of "more, as soon as possible" but rather buying the right things at the right time.

They certainly need to test all subsystems on cv-18 before jumping into more production. It doesnt make sense to build multiple untested catobar carriers with the risk of large adjustement and modifications down the road. Whencv-18 will be approved into service and quality proven, China will be certainly able to build multiple at the same time if quantity is really needed.

 

[abc123]

Everyone would agree that the PLAN will require additional CATOBAR carriers, but both of you are thinking on a scale that is a bit too short.

The question for the PLA, is whether it makes sense to pursue another CATOBAR carrier (whether 003 pattern or otherwise) without a pause, or with very little pause, after CV-18 Fujian.


Technological maturity is one reason why immediately going for a followup CATOBAR carrier after CV-18 may not be wise, after all it uses EM catapults and is a much larger and more capable ship than anything the Chinese naval shipbuilding industry has built before.


But it's also a matter of opportunity cost. CV-18 Fujian is not likely to enter service before 2025, and even then will take a couple of years to get fully ready for service. If they bought another carrier right after CV-18, it likely wouldn't enter service until 2027 and would also need additional time to get ready for service.
However, an additional carrier is also going to consume funds, crewing, and escorts, and time. Everyone seems to view the latter half of this decade as being a dangerous period in which the likelihood of conflict is heightened, which in turn means that having mature platforms with high readiness and best bang for buck is important. All of which is to say, buying a second CATOBAR carrier may result in a ship during that time which is unable to be properly combat ready and would only be drawing up valuable military, shipyard and monetary resources.


Or putting it simply -- perhaps the reason they haven't bought an additional CATOBAR carrier immediately after Fujian, is because they don't want to have another CATOBAR carrier that would only enter combat readiness in the end of the decade where it would be a suboptimal use of limited resources for a highly tense geostrategic environment, and that it only makes sense to do further CATOBAR procurement after that period if they project the geostrategic balance to be one that can become less risky and more in their favour.


Good procurement isn't just a matter of "more, as soon as possible" but rather buying the right things at the right time.

Allright, but you can't say that it's better not to have second CATOBAR carrier than having it, because isn't perfect enough. Also, if they laid second carrier somewhere last year, after 003 left the dock, they might have it in water by 2025 and in service by 2027-28. Good enough IMHO.

 

[abc123]

They certainly need to test all subsystems on cv-18 before jumping into more production. It doesnt make sense to build multiple untested catobar carriers with the risk of large adjustement and modifications down the road. Whencv-18 will be approved into service and quality proven, China will be certainly able to build multiple at the same time if quantity is really needed.

Will they have time? Enemy is also a factor, he has a say too. Chinese Navy still thinks in peace time terms.

 

[SanWenYu]

Chinese Navy still thinks in peace time terms.

PLAN does not decide when the war starts. CMC does. PLAN will not be fighting alone in war time. PLA is certainly pouring a lot of resources into other branches like RF and AF.

And given the number of frigates and destroyers are in construction, and the submarines that we haven't been able to see, it is just wrong to think that PLAN isn't preparing for contingencies.

 

[Atomicfrog]

Will they have time? Enemy is also a factor, he has a say too. Chinese Navy still thinks in peace time terms.

Having more ships that doesn't work is worst than having less ships...You can take the Queen Elizabeth-class for example ...

 

[Blitzo]

Allright, but you can't say that it's better not to have second CATOBAR carrier than having it, because isn't perfect enough. Also, if they laid second carrier somewhere last year, after 003 left the dock, they might have it in water by 2025 and in service by 2027-28. Good enough IMHO.

Actually, I absolutely can say that it may be better to not have a second CATOBAR carrier than having it.

If they laid down a second carrier last year, it might be launched in 2025, and in service in 2027-2028 yes, but would still need an additional 2 years to reach full operation -- 2030.


Having a second carrier that only achieves proper combat capability in 2030, when 2025-2030 is the most risky and dangerous time, and all of the resources that a second carrier would tie up as part of its fitting out, sea trials, workup and training, is clearly something the PLAN considers unwise, especially if one thinks about the other, more deliverable capabilities and platforms that they can procure in that time which can achieve combat capability in the 2025-2030 period with a shorter time span.


The question that needs to be asked isn't "should the PLAN have bought a second CATOBAR carrier as soon as possible after Fujian".
Rather, the question should be "should the PLAN have bought a second CATOBAR carrier after Fujian, given it would likely only achieve combat capability by 2030".

My view, and it seems the PLAN's view, is that they preferred to buy other capabilities for that time period.

 

[TK3600]

Actually, I absolutely can say that it may be better to not have a second CATOBAR carrier than having it.

If they laid down a second carrier last year, it might be launched in 2025, and in service in 2027-2028 yes, but would still need an additional 2 years to reach full operation -- 2030.


Having a second carrier that only achieves proper combat capability in 2030, when 2025-2030 is the most risky and dangerous time, and all of the resources that a second carrier would tie up as part of its fitting out, sea trials, workup and training, is clearly something the PLAN considers unwise, especially if one thinks about the other, more deliverable capabilities and platforms that they can procure in that time which can achieve combat capability in the 2025-2030 period with a shorter time span.


The question that needs to be asked isn't "should the PLAN have bought a second CATOBAR carrier as soon as possible after Fujian".
Rather, the question should be "should the PLAN have bought a second CATOBAR carrier after Fujian, given it would likely only achieve combat capability by 2030".

My view, and it seems the PLAN's view, is that they preferred to buy other capabilities for that time period.

I fully agree with this. Producing more capital ship is actually a peace time procurement strategy. If a war is closing in the best to do is producing more cost effective, high attrition equipment that pay for itself as fast as it can. Things includes frigates for patrolling, conventional subs, and ballistic missiles.

 

[AndrewS]

Allright, but you can't say that it's better not to have second CATOBAR carrier than having it, because isn't perfect enough. Also, if they laid second carrier somewhere last year, after 003 left the dock, they might have it in water by 2025 and in service by 2027-28. Good enough IMHO.

Then by 2028, you're looking at the Chinese Navy having 4 carriers rather than 3 carriers.
That is not going to make much difference in a blue-water scenario when the US has 10 carriers.

So it's better to focus on other systems in the short-term, considering that China doesn't currently have outright military superiority in the First Island Chain.

But by 2030:
1. the Chinese military should have achieve outright superiority in the First Island Chain, based on what we see being produced today
2. a nuclear carrier design should be ready for mass production

Then they could pump out 4 carriers in the 2030-2035 timeframe, like we saw with the Forrestal Class.
And the Chinese Navy having 8 carriers would have a realistic chance of winning a blue-water scenario in the Western Pacific.