CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[Deino]

Those are all reasonable points, and I personally do think that four carriers (including two 003s) by the late 2020s could still very much have a useful role even though it would likely be well below the ideal minimum number of carriers and even if it may suffer from a questionable degree of subsurface escort capability.
But redirection of the available military funding to other measures with less risk of being a potential liability or being more cost effective for the 2025-2030 period is also something to consider -- SSKs, aircraft, land based missiles, or even procuring capabilities so that the PLA can conduct a Taiwan contingency more effectively (like SAR pods, PGMs, medium amphib ships).


If we do indeed take pop3's information seriously and interpret it to mean that the fourth carrier will be the CVN, I think we should consider the variety of scenarios and possible rationales that could underlie the scenarios, and one of those scenarios is that it is a possibility that it is only slated to enter service after 2030 (meaning China will remain at three carriers throughout the mid to late 2020s), and it isn't a miniscule possibility either.

Now, IMO it is too early to make a concrete call, but I think we should definitely keep our minds open.
The biggest question for the fourth carrier (i.e.: first CVN) now for us, is when it is expected. It's basically a ticking clock now. Because if fabrication work on it doesn't begin before 2025, then there is absolutely zero chance of it even being ready to "enter service" before 2030, let alone achieving anything resembling combat effectiveness.

Shouldn't we better move the last pages of discussion in a new thread for the forth carrier?

 

[Blitzo]

Shouldn't we better move the last pages of discussion in a new thread for the forth carrier?

I'm wondering that as well. I feel like it will soon reach a point where we may have too many carrier threads in the Navy category -- literally four threads, one for CV-16, CV-17, 003, and "future nuclear carrier".

I think what I might do, is to lock the CV-16 and CV-17 threads, and to make one new "CV-16/17 STOBAR carrier thread," and then we will use the 003 thread exclusively for 003, and we will have a "00X CVN thread" for future carrier discussion?

 

[Blitzo]

Given the expansion of Chinese carrier discussions in terms of the emerging maturity of CV-16 and CV-17, as well as the 003 CATOBAR carrier, and possible emergence of the nuclear carrier in the medium term future, I have locked the existing CV-16 and CV-17 threads.

All further discussion about CV-16 Liaoning and CV-17 Shandong will be consolidated here in this thread:

CV-16, CV-17 STOBAR carrier thread (001/CV-16/Liaoning, 002/CV-17/Shandong)

Given the expansion of Chinese carrier discussions in terms of the emerging maturity of CV-16 and CV-17, as well as the 003 CATOBAR carrier, and possible emergence of the nuclear carrier in the medium term future, I have locked the existing CV-16 and CV-17 threads. All further discussion about...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

All further discussion about the 00X/004 nuclear CATOBAR carrier will occur here:

00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

according to pop3, the forth carrier will be nuclear

www.sinodefenceforum.com

Meanwhile, this thread will continue to be for the 003 carrier currently under construction at JNCX, as well as if we get any rumours of additional 003 pattern carriers in the future.

 

[VESSEL]

After the 003 launch, JN's 4# dock will be retrofitted to accommodate larger civilian ships. So I think it doesn't make sense to expect another 003.

 

[Blitzo]

After the 003 launch, JN's 4# dock will be retrofitted to accommodate larger civilian ships. So I think it doesn't make sense to expect another 003.

Previous expectations for additional 003 carriers before the arrival of the nuclear carrier, was that additional 003s might be built at either Dalian or Jiangnan.

 

[zavve]

Why was JN chosen to build the 003 instead of Dalian? It seems weird to not consolidate carrier building to one shipyard. Will additional 003s/004 be built at Dalian och JN?

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Why was JN chosen to build the 003 instead of Dalian? It seems weird to not consolidate carrier building to one shipyard. Will additional 003s/004 be built at Dalian och JN?

Preparation/practice for simultaneous construction of two carriers at both shipyards in the future, maybe?

Just my own wild guess, lol.

 

[Intrepid]

Why was JN chosen to build the 003 instead of Dalian?

I suspect JN won a competition from both shipyards for the contract because they submitted the better bid.

 

[Andy1974]

President Xi stated, just around the time of the pop3 update, that China would not enter into any arms races.

This alone could explain why only one 003 will be built. They are not going to get spooked and start rushing it, or deviating from long held plans.

They are confident they can handle things, and will continue their rapid carrier development, iterating new technologies and breakthroughs as they go.

It’s quite a power move to say you only need one 003.

 

[Andy1974]

Not sure if mentioned previously or not, but it’s interesting to note that the Type 003 will be able to visit the waters of New Zealand, while US carriers will not, due to being nuclear.

Are there other national waters or zones that nuclear carriers are not allowed?, but a conventional one is?

Thanks!