I hope more progress can be made on 003 this year but it does not seem likely considering the covid lockdown is sure to significantly slow the progress.
CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
lcloo
Captain
What made you think COVID-19 slow down 003 progress? Most of the experienced China watchers expect its launch between end of Q1 to middle of next year.
Intrepid
Major
Without the effects of Covid-19. With Covid-19-effects in mind it would be a little later.
lcloo
Captain
What is current situation in China in regard to COVID-19 cases? Yesterday they had ZERO case of local infection on Mainland, 4 cases in Taiwan, 8 cases in Hongkong, and 24 cases from travellers entering China( under 14 - 21 days hotel quarantine). Day before they had 2 local infections and one day before that again they had ZERO local infections.
Most of the "OUT BREAK" loud-mouthed by CNN, BBC and others (they added how it will make Chinese 2021 economy slow down badly) are between tens and 100 to 200 cases in total and there were quickly eliminated to ZERO within weeks. (Check Guangdong outbreak, Fujian Outbreak, Shanghai Airport Outbreak).
lcloo
Captain
Read two sides of the coin, get a neutral view. You believe there is a nano-pin size Chinese spy chip on Apple phone widely reported by Wetern media last year? Or you believe in Trump BS?
The key point is that COVID-19 did not affect progress of 003, not in any significant way. The political BS is by people made statement that 003's progress is slowed down due to pandemic without providing evidence.
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lcloo
Captain
As long as aircraft carrier programe does not hurt China's economies, and does not drain budget allocations from other military branches that undermine their capabilities, there is no good reason not to do it.
Surface ships has two main serious threat, one is from submarine and the other is from aircraft. And PLAN is already deployed in blue water regions from Somalia in Indian Ocean to West Pacific, far away from the air cover from Mainland China. DDGs, even a large one like type 055 still have a limit on the number of SAM in their launchers, they could have depleted all their SAMs in prolong air attacks before returning to the safety of shore based air cover.
Unless China has many overseas military base, aircraft carriers are the only means of providing air cover. If the sea routes from Middle East - Indian Ocean - Melaka Straits - South China Sea are threatened, any warships send out would need air cover that can be immediately deployed.
It is not really about challenging US Navy in blue water unless US Navy is the one that block China's marine life-line.
And also, the best use of your defence capability is to stop others' desire to start a war with you. Aircraft carriers do have these type of effect.
Surface ships has two main serious threat, one is from submarine and the other is from aircraft. And PLAN is already deployed in blue water regions from Somalia in Indian Ocean to West Pacific, far away from the air cover from Mainland China. DDGs, even a large one like type 055 still have a limit on the number of SAM in their launchers, they could have depleted all their SAMs in prolong air attacks before returning to the safety of shore based air cover.
Unless China has many overseas military base, aircraft carriers are the only means of providing air cover. If the sea routes from Middle East - Indian Ocean - Melaka Straits - South China Sea are threatened, any warships send out would need air cover that can be immediately deployed.
It is not really about challenging US Navy in blue water unless US Navy is the one that block China's marine life-line.
And also, the best use of your defence capability is to stop others' desire to start a war with you. Aircraft carriers do have these type of effect.
Carriers will be highly vulnerable to any advanced opponent I think. They are huge and can be tracked from space. I doubt a nation like, say, Russia doesn't know 100% of the time where US carriers are. China likely can do the same. Certainly a nation could spot any carrier which came into range of aircraft weapons deployment to its shores. Carriers aren't that fast anyway. They can't evade that quickly. Imagine you fire a Tsirkon salvo or equivalent at it from underwater position 1000km away at Mach 9 (assuming public specs are accurate). Good luck. The carrier group has no way to either evade or counter this threat unless it is in a body of water which is highly patrolled with ASW assets. Can you even do it against a weapon with 1000km range? Carriers are mostly for use against non advanced opponents.
At best it can be used for deterrent I think. There would be a high threshold where a nation would avoid sinking a carrier to prevent a casus belli even though they are so vulnerable.
If you read Western news it makes one think the US can still fight WWII in the Pacific with carriers against China, or something like that, but it makes no sense in a modern scenario.
The Type 003 will be, I think, used to provide not just air cover but longer distance strike power against other surface targets. Already with the Type 001 we saw the J-15 being tested with anti-ship missiles. So the doctrine will, I think, be a lot different to either Russian doctrine or US doctrine.
At best it can be used for deterrent I think. There would be a high threshold where a nation would avoid sinking a carrier to prevent a casus belli even though they are so vulnerable.
If you read Western news it makes one think the US can still fight WWII in the Pacific with carriers against China, or something like that, but it makes no sense in a modern scenario.
The Type 003 will be, I think, used to provide not just air cover but longer distance strike power against other surface targets. Already with the Type 001 we saw the J-15 being tested with anti-ship missiles. So the doctrine will, I think, be a lot different to either Russian doctrine or US doctrine.