#19 is missing
Does that mean the fifth aircraft carrier will definitely be nuclear-powered, the magazine is not sure about the fourth? Can they read my mind?
"002" is Shandong... one additional second CV Type 002 as no. 19 ...
My bad, somehow I mistook The Diplomat for Indian publication, not knowing it's Japanese in origin.
For PLAN to really move into CVN, they have to pick up more foreign bases in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.Indeed this would fit my expectations too: one additional second CV Type 002 as no. 19 bevor switching to a true CVN.
#19
"002" is Shandong
The Diplomat is a U.S. publication, with base in Tokyo.My bad, somehow I mistook The Diplomat for Indian publication, not knowing it's Japanese in origin.
CVN is actually more essential if you don’t have foreign bases than if you do, since if you don’t have foreign bases you need carriers that can maintain higher endurance and lower supply line dependence requirements even more than if you do. One of the *primary* reasons we should expect China to pursue CVNs is precisely because they *don’t* have an option but to contest past the 2nd island chain as part of their basic security objectives but also don’t have sufficient forward bases to depend on to help with maintaining that objective.For PLAN to really move into CVN, they have to pick up more foreign bases in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Without foreign basing, and the mission set constrained to 1st - 2nd island chain, Type 003 with J-35 would do just fine.
actually,USN ordered USS Saratoga just a few days after USS Forrestal was laid down.And they ordered the forth Forrestal class before USS Forrestal was launched.At that time,No one knows if the world's very first super carrier got mistake or not.Erm. no?
There is the whole testing of the new launch method (EMALS). Can a second carrier be ordered right now? Sure. But there is a very bad example right across the pond - and it's going to weigh as a risk factor.
And this is clearly not the only new thing - thing that may go wrong - out there. For all intents and purposes, 003 is the first carrier designed from the bottom up in China. As a bonus - the carrier itself comes with a whole bunch of new fixed-wing aircraft. Which, as of now, can't be tested at sea.
Maybe something will go wrong - engineers are humans, they make mistakes sometimes.
This brings us to the point: 003 right now is an unknown quantity. It can't be ordered right now with a reliable schedule of getting an operational ship - only of construction. It, of course, can be ordered "the Churchill way" - but if things go wrong, there is a huge risk at stake here.
Second - indeed, as you've mentioned, there is a new training and procedure establishing. Single-type fixed-wing STOBAR airwing is quite different from a mixed-type CATOBAR airwing.
Well, for example, Ford is expected to go on its first cruise in 2022 (5 years after commissioning).
And from operations points of view - Ford is a completely known quantity, which follows after many, many similar ships. 003 isn't.
We aren't talking "they wrong we right" here. We're talking project management on a national level, with national-level repercussions in case of a miscalculation. Liaoning, from this point of view - is safe.
This is why it can be counted as an indication of lack of rush: PLAN intends to get the vessel it wants, and not vessel it can reliably get asap and in numbers.
(answered in a proper thread)