antiterror13
Brigadier
I think the powerplant of a CVN is such a hurdle itself that I consider that singular aspect of moving from 003 to a proper CVN to be a significant difficulty, probably more difficult than the development of EM cats needed for transition from CV-17 to 003.
I don't expect initial work on a PLAN CVN to begin until after the mid 2020s (let's say 2027/8) -- so the question is what they're going to do between now and then. I personally expect them to go for additional 003 pattern carriers, but I don't think we've had anything concrete and decisive from the grapevine saying "yes, expect modules for additional 003 carriers to appear in XYZ timespan"... The most number of additional 003 pattern carriers I can see them putting in the water between now and 2030 is three 003s. The smallest number of additional 003 pattern carriers I can see them putting out in the water is zero.
My personal prediction range is that the PLAN may have anywhere between 3 carriers in service/in the water by 2030 (CV-16, CV-17, 003 no. 1 that we see now), or up to 6 carriers in service/in the water by 2030 (CV-16, CV-17, up to four 003 pattern carriers including no. 1 that we see now). I don't expect the first CVN to be launched until after 2030.
subject to change ofc with new info.
Please educate me why developing CVN is significantly more difficult than EM Cats? China has has SSN for a very longtime, since 1974, almost 50 yrs ago. I thought Nuclear reactor on subs is significantly more difficult than on CVN and also currently China is one of the world leaders in Nuclear power plant technology
Please educate me. Thanks