A CGI? so beautiful.
CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
island is on
Check the last page.
Word of advice; if there's a picture of a new development within the last 24 hours, it's always useful to check the last five pages to see if it's already been posted.
With the way things shaping up, 003 will be launched Q4 this year. Fitting and trails taking 1 to 1.5 years and commission in 2023.
Meanwhile they might start construction on sister ship (second 003) next year. It might have some slight variations from 003 but it will certainly be CV.
The pace of PLAN buildup is astonishing.
Meanwhile they might start construction on sister ship (second 003) next year. It might have some slight variations from 003 but it will certainly be CV.
The pace of PLAN buildup is astonishing.
I wouldn't assume that.
The relatively fast pace of work on 003 so far is likely a reflection of the fact that they constructed the ship in super modules at a different part of the shipyard before moving them to the current drydock for final assembly, which was relatively quick only because most of the shop was already fabricated elsewhere before moving to the drydock.
However the fitting out and sea trials part of the ships progress will likely be more conventional and of a "normal" speed.
Even if 003 is launched Q4 this year (which I'm not sure will happen), it will likely need at least a year of fitting out, and at least a year of sea trials -- likely more, given it's a larger ship and a more complex ship than CV-16/17.
So I will be pleasantly surprised if it's commissioned before 2025, personally.
The lead ship of Nimitz Class spend 3 years through launched to commissioned, and her sister ships average spent 2 years.
That monster ship have 100,000 long tons with Neuclear power.But Type-003 is smaller than Nimitz, and no nuclear power.
So I think it'll take 2 to 3 years from launch to commission——that the most conservative estimate is before 2025 spring.
And in 2025, the Type-004'll prepare to launch.
No reason to believe that (regardless of whether it's believing 004 is a CVN or just the "next" 003)...
Can everyone avoid making overenthusiastic big calls lol
The speed of American carrier construction is dictated by the fact that there is only one yard capable of nuclear powered aircraft carrier construction, and that yard’s staff must be continuously employed between the times when new carriers are funded and ordered. So the speed of construction is dictated by the funded rate of construction, not vice versa. So the rate at which the US has actually built aircraft carriers in the last 50 years is not a good indication of how fast one carriers can theoretically be built in the US, much less in China.
There is a difference between when a ship is technically commissioned, and when it is fully worked up and operational in the sense of being a fully efficient unit
I think it is not unlikely the 003 will be physically complete by the end of 2022, and there would follow some period of preliminary trials to ensure what is a new type of ship for the PLAN exhibit no fault attributable to the quality of work at the ship yard. Once that trial period, maybe 6 month, is complete, I suspect the ship will be commissioned, around middle of 2023. After that, there will be lengthy period, maybe 2-3 years, when the ship is put through her paces to enable all the bugs in the preliminary CATOBAR operating doctrine developed before first practical experience can be gained is ironed out. So it might be 2025-2026 before the ship might be considered to be fully efficient and sent on operational deployment on something more than trial basis.
My previous post that you quoted already detailed how long I believe the fitting out and sea trials periods will take.
What I wrote was -- it will likely need at least a year of fitting out, and at least a year of sea trials -- likely more, given it's a larger ship and a more complex ship than CV-16/17.
Assuming 003 is launched in late 2021 or Q1 2022, I'll say that 1-1.5 years of fitting out followed by 1.5-2 years of sea trials seem logical, when looking at the period of time that CV-17 required for those things -- keeping in mind that 003 is a larger ship as well as a much more complex ship.
So yes, when I say commissioned by 2025, I am talking about it being technically commissioned.
In terms of achieving something like initial operating capability, that will likely take 2 years after that.