CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[Mirabo]

It's either someone post some real sensitive stuff in reply or the "friendly discussion" went off rail, again. Just another normal thursday on cjdby.

Or we could ignore the possibility that the source material itself was the sensitive stuff, which you keep trying to dismiss.

Let's not pretend here. We both know full well that the thread was locked because OP made a dangerous claim with sensitive visual material. Not because the thread derailed, not because someone else posted the "real sensitive stuff" in reply. You would know this too if you used CJDBY enough to wave it off as "another normal thursday".

 

[SinoSoldier]

One last bit of news regarding the catapult, this time from a big shrimp.

It took the guys in the source thread a while to decipher this cryptic drawing. Most notably, we can clearly see a J-15 attached to a catapult.

There is also a horse in the foreground. The Chinese character for horse is 马 (Ma), and the horse in the drawing likely alludes to Rear Admiral Ma Weiming, the man behind China's electromagnetic catapult. The leek, 葱 (Cong), is speculated to represent Sun Cong, architect of the J-15.

The message conveyed by this picture is likely to be that both Ma and Sun were on site to witness the J-15 being test-launched by EM catapult.

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That's odd, because as far as I recall, the J-15A prototype didn't have the calibration mark (the "crash test dummy insignia") on the right of its canopy. Perhaps this is another J-15A prototype?

 

[kriss]

Or we could ignore the possibility that the source material itself was the sensitive stuff, which you keep trying to dismiss.

Let's not pretend here. We both know full well that the thread was locked because OP made a dangerous claim with sensitive visual material. Not because the thread derailed, not because someone else posted the "real sensitive stuff" in reply. You would know this too if you used CJDBY enough to wave it off as "another normal thursday".

Have spent almost 10 years on cjdby I can tell you that "here's some fun stuff I heard from a presentation" is far from the sensitive level that will lead to lock up. There's people claim all kinds of things everyday with similar "back up" on cjdby (sometimes more than daily activity of SDF). Rumors like this with neither details nor concrete evidence will not get your post locked up even if the rumor is in line with the truth. Posts will locked up if someone bring up technical specification or schedule and plans, or someone post pictures that are not supposed to be released on internet (fighter production line, underwater part of a vessel, etc).

TL;DR.
I've seen about a dozen thread claim EMAL is choosen (with another dozen claim the opposite) since the new year. And guess what, a handful among these thread said they get that information from a presentation or a lecture from a military personal or military industry practitioner. They claim the exactly same thing with almost exactly evidence (or lack of) and they DID NOT get locked.

 

[Orthan]

I dont know if it has already been posted. This is a global times article about china´s aircraft carrier program.

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[Blitzo]

That's odd, because as far as I recall, the J-15A prototype didn't have the calibration mark (the "crash test dummy insignia") on the right of its canopy. Perhaps this is another J-15A prototype?

Sure. or maybe they attached a calibration sticker onto the prototype after it first flew (it's not like we've had recent pictures of it)

 

[Blitzo]

Have spent almost 10 years on cjdby I can tell you that "here's some fun stuff I heard from a presentation" is far from the sensitive level that will lead to lock up. There's people claim all kinds of things everyday with similar "back up" on cjdby (sometimes more than daily activity of SDF). Rumors like this with neither details nor concrete evidence will not get your post locked up even if the rumor is in line with the truth. Posts will locked up if someone bring up technical specification or schedule and plans, or someone post pictures that are not supposed to be released on internet (fighter production line, underwater part of a vessel, etc).

TL;DR.
I've seen about a dozen thread claim EMAL is choosen (with another dozen claim the opposite) since the new year. And guess what, a handful among these thread said they get that information from a presentation or a lecture from a military personal or military industry practitioner. They claim the exactly same thing with almost exactly evidence (or lack of) and they DID NOT get locked.

So then, why did this particular thread get locked? Perhaps something about it alerted the authorities different to all the other dozen threads about EM catapult, maybe something about the thread made the authorities realize "this is more than just a thread with rumour, this one actually has a piece of physical evidence that could convince people".

Have many of the other dozen or so threads about EM catapult had a Chinese Navy officer make such a claim at a supposed wuhan marine engineering school, with a picture of said officer to back the claim up?


Again, I personally am not saying the original post and picture is definitely true or even highly likely to be true, but I do think the reasons for trying to discredit this particular post are based on doubtful premises. If there is any reason to doubt this particular post it should be because of general PLA watching vigilance to all forms of rumour.

 

[Godric]

I dont know if it has already been posted. This is a global times article about china´s aircraft carrier program.

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if that article is correct and China wants to build 6 super carriers then that is going to throw the cat amongst the pigeons it will upset US strategy of having a bigger Navy than it's next X amount navies combined ... this is what happened with the British empire at the end of the 19th century when the German Empire was almost matching the British empire for building dreadnaughts and it lead to the rapid decline of the British empire ... the same thing is about to happen with the USA and it's near $20 trillion debt

 

[Jeff Head]

... this is what happened with the British empire at the end of the 19th century when the German Empire was almost matching the British empire for building dreadnaughts and it lead to the rapid decline of the British empire ... the same thing is about to happen with the USA and it's near $20 trillion debt

Let's be careful about making such statements and trying to get any discussion going about the total decline and default f the US. It just leads to arguments and will get people moderated or worse.

As it is, I believe that the Chinese will gravitate to a "super" carrier design after building two of the 002 design.

That design, which we can call 003 for lack of a better term, will be what the Chinese ultimately build in numbers. But, having said that, it will take them a long time to get six of those carriers.

I believe what you will see is

2 x Type 001/A CV-16 and CV-17 (2003-2020)
2 x Type 002 (2020-2025)
2 x Type 003 (2025-2030)

At that point, after about 245 year of work, the PLAN will have six carriers. Then, the next carrier after those six, when the Liaoning is retired around 2040, will be a fourth "super" carrier, and then it will take another 25 years to retire those first four carriers and get to six "super" carriers.

25 years may look like a long time...but for the Chinese to go from no carriers at all, with n experience, to having six super carriers of their own in what will end up being about a 50 year period, will be a very amazing thing.

It has taken the US 100 years to get where it is today...maintaining 11 or 12 super carriers.

 

[Iron Man]

Let's be careful about making such statements and trying to get any discussion going about the total decline and default f the US. It just leads to arguments and will get people moderated or worse.

As it is, I believe that the Chinese will gravitate to a "super" carrier design after building two of the 002 design.

That design, which we can call 003 for lack of a better term, will be what the Chinese ultimately build in numbers. But, having said that, it will take them a long time to get six of those carriers.

I believe what you will see is

2 x Type 001/A CV-16 and CV-17 (2003-2020)
2 x Type 002 (2020-2025)
2 x Type 003 (2025-2030)

At that point, after about 245 year of work, the PLAN will have six carriers. Then, the next carrier after those six, when the Liaoning is retired around 2040, will be a fourth "super" carrier, and then it will take another 25 years to retire those first four carriers and get to six "super" carriers.

25 years may look like a long time...but for the Chinese to go from no carriers at all, with n experience, to having six super carriers of their own in what will end up being about a 50 year period, will be a very amazing thing.

It has taken the US 100 years to get where it is today...maintaining 11 or 12 super carriers.

I think they may actually go to 7, with one carrier constantly out for midlife overhaul, and 2 more groups of 3 rotating between on station, maintenance/refueling, and training. That would allow for a constant 2 CSGs on station at all times with 2 more available to surge on short notice.

 

[Intrepid]

25 years may look like a long time...but for the Chinese to go from no carriers at all, with n experience, to having six super carriers of their own in what will end up being about a 50 year period, will be a very amazing thing.

It has taken the US 100 years to get where it is today...maintaining 11 or 12 super carriers.

The US-Navy has one carrier less as planned. CVN 65 is out of service since a few years and the successor CVN 78 isn't ready yet.

China is building aircraft carriers in two shipyards with a rate of one carrier every three years. The United States are building carriers in one shipyard with one ship every five to six years.

The economic viability and willingness of the people to spend money on aircraft carrier groups decide whether to keep this armament contest. Who knows how it will look economical and social in 20 years?