CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[Gustaf Adolf]

Ulyanovsk

Thank you. I had forgotten the Russian ship.

6 + 2 would definitely be overachieving but then again it could potentially fit into my speculation that CV 16 and CV 17? will not serve out their entire full useful lives. I've had disagreements before even with couple folks here about China or PLAN saving or hoarding every equipment they can no matter how old however I believe that mentality is slowly changing. The China of 2020s and certainly 2030s CAN and likely WILL decomm, sell or scrap equipment or assets they deemed not up to par. No point keeping CV16 say in 2040 if you have SIX newly built and designed CV or CVNs allready!

Why would they decommission ships that works and be used in Chinese waters leaving the other carriers free to do other work further out.

with all that being said my thoughts are similar to Fzgfzy. I do not believe next one is a CVN but CV. It will be roughly the size of Forrestal class but obviously with more modern design and capabilities!

I agree with you but I found this:

I cant read Chinese but from the source it said that the next carrier is rumoured to be nuclear powered. I have no idea how trustworthy the source is though.

 

[kwaigonegin]

Thank you. I had forgotten the Russian ship.



Why would they decommission ships that works and be used in Chinese waters leaving the other carriers free to do other work further out.



I agree with you but I found this:

I cant read Chinese but from the source it said that the next carrier is rumoured to be nuclear powered. I have no idea how trustworthy the source is though.

'Next' could mean cv19 not cv18 since design work is completed and good chance the first steel has even been cut.

 

[latenlazy]

6 + 2 would definitely be overachieving but then again it could potentially fit into my speculation that CV 16 and CV 17? will not serve out their entire full useful lives. I've had disagreements before even with couple folks here about China or PLAN saving or hoarding every equipment they can no matter how old however I believe that mentality is slowly changing. The China of 2020s and certainly 2030s CAN and likely WILL decomm, sell or scrap equipment or assets they deemed not up to par. No point keeping CV16 say in 2040 if you have SIX newly built and designed CV or CVNs allready!

with all that being said my thoughts are similar to Fzgfzy. I do not believe next one is a CVN but CV. It will be roughly the size of Forrestal class but obviously with more modern design and capabilities!

I think the basic intuition behind your speculation is right, but I think the argument you extend from it misses a key considerations. If China intends on an aggressive expansion of their carrier fleet, I don’t think the natural conclusion is that the STOBAR carriers will be decommissioned, but that they will be downshifted into training vessels. With an aggressive expansion will also come a pressing need for more personnel that know how to operate aircraft carriers. Even as CV-16 and CV-17 become obsolete to the PLAN’s evolving operational doctrine their hulls will continue to have value throughout their lifetimes. Until the size of China’s carrier fleet stabilizes this will also be true for any other carriers that may be decommissioned early due to rapid obsolescence (I think this logic also broadly applies to other roles and classes of vessels in the PLAN).

 

[watdahek]

6 CATOBARS by 2030 will be the best that China can do, and even then that is pushing things to the extreme. Assuming if both the JNCX and Dalian works full time non stop starting with the 003 (and Dalian gets working possibly at the end of this year). Both yards can potentially launch a carrier every 4 years (breakneck speed) which assuming if everything goes without a hitch means that by 2029 there will be 6 CATOBAR carriers launched and at various stages of fitting out/sea trials.

Check out the Forrestal class construction. First ship of the class took 2 years, and last of the class, USS Independence, took exactly 1 year to launch. With 2 ship yards, I have no doubt China can launch 8 catobar carriers by 2030, though it may not want to do it until it has a mature nuclear powered design.

 

[watdahek]

6 + 2 would definitely be overachieving but then again it could potentially fit into my speculation that CV 16 and CV 17? will not serve out their entire full useful lives. I've had disagreements before even with couple folks here about China or PLAN saving or hoarding every equipment they can no matter how old however I believe that mentality is slowly changing. The China of 2020s and certainly 2030s CAN and likely WILL decomm, sell or scrap equipment or assets they deemed not up to par. No point keeping CV16 say in 2040 if you have SIX newly built and designed CV or CVNs allready!

with all that being said my thoughts are similar to Fzgfzy. I do not believe next one is a CVN but CV. It will be roughly the size of Forrestal class but obviously with more modern design and capabilities!

I find it questionable to say 6 catobars are over achieving, considering the ultimate end goal of "rejuvenation of chinese nation". I believe the naval expansion of China first and foremost depends on its economy. If for example China can someday support a navy that can decimate the USN at any time at any place using 2% of its GDP, i have no doubt China will do it. After all there is no rejuvenation if one can still be bullied by violence.

So if China maintains its economic growth, only God knows the number of ships China will build. If economic growth halts, even 4 catobar might be over achieving

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Check out the Forrestal class construction. First ship of the class took 2 years, and last of the class, USS Independence, took exactly 1 year to launch. With 2 ship yards, I have no doubt China can launch 8 catobar carriers by 2030, though it may not want to do it until it has a mature nuclear powered design.

Uh , the first of the Forrestal Class was laid down in July1952 launched in December 1954. So we are talking about a period of almost 2 and a half years here. And where did you get 1 year for the USS independence, 1 year for a 60,000 tons carrier ? That's ridiculous, the USS Independence was first laid down in July 1955 and launched in 6 June 1958, that is still 2 years. Are you sure that you are not mistaking it for the LCS Independence ?
And if the specifications of the 003 are correct. We are looking at a 80,000 ton class carrier on par with the Kitty Hawk class. Construction of those things also took an average of 3 years to complete and that is still with 2 shipyards as well. So we can expect a similar period of time of construction for China's carrier which is happening in conjunction with it's naval buildup, . With a period of 4 years once China starts work on a 100,000 tons carrier. This period can expand since this will be the first time China has worked on a CATOBAR carrier before.
There is no reason to believe why China will settle on a smaller less capable design like the Forrestal when they have made every indication that they are after the Nimitz class of ships.

 

[watdahek]

Uh , the first of the Forrestal Class was laid down in July1952 launched in December 1954. So we are talking about a period of almost 2 and a half years here. And where did you get 1 year for the USS independence, 1 year for a 60,000 tons carrier ? That's ridiculous, the USS Independence was first laid down in July 1955 and launched in 6 June 1958, that is still 2 years. Are you sure that you are not mistaking it for the LCS Independence ?
And if the specifications of the 003 are correct. We are looking at a 80,000 ton class carrier on par with the Kitty Hawk class. Construction of those things also took an average of 3 years to complete and that is still with 2 shipyards as well. So we can expect a similar period of time of construction for China's carrier which is happening in conjunction with it's naval buildup, . With a period of 4 years once China starts work on a 100,000 tons carrier. This period can expand since this will be the first time China has worked on a CATOBAR carrier before.
There is no reason to believe why China will settle on a smaller less capable design like the Forrestal when they have made every indication that they are after the Nimitz class of ships.

ye my fault that was misinformation, some how i confused ordered and laid down with laid down and launched. I stand corrected.

 

[Mirabo]

As far as I know, 指挥长 is not a big shrimp. He's an enthusiast who lives in Dalian and used to take photos of the shipyard from his apartment, until he was told by authorities to stop doing that.

Yes, thanks for the clarification, although I use the term 'big shrimp' quite loosely to include anyone who is a reliable source of information and updates on upcoming projects. So far, 指挥长 has been quick to share exclusive information on the 002 and 003, so I consider him one of our prime sources. This news, of course, we should probably take with a pinch of salt, but I think it was worth sharing.

 

[vesicles]

Thank you. I had forgotten the Russian ship.



Why would they decommission ships that works and be used in Chinese waters leaving the other carriers free to do other work further out.



I agree with you but I found this:

I cant read Chinese but from the source it said that the next carrier is rumoured to be nuclear powered. I have no idea how trustworthy the source is though.

He sounds like he knows his stuff, instead of just a guy who takes photos from his apartment...

 

[dawn_strike]

Is there really such a problem with the CV-17 and CV-18's deck arrangement ? Because from visual cues alone it is no different from the Nimitz and Ford class's. Design wise it pretty much maxed out the usable deck space available on a carrier. With a straight deck followed up by an angled one at the back.
The CV-18 may include incremental improvements such as a even broader and wider flight deck with even less sweep. But fundamentally there is no problem for it to emulate the CV-16 and CV-17.

1)Looks like the CV18 in this CG only has 3 catapults and 2 lifters. 2 lifters! It will definitely limit the efficiency of launching. To make things worse, J15s is larger in scale than F18s. One lifter can carry 2 F18s together but for J15 it can hold only 1.
2)One of the launch spot on the front deck encroaches the runway for landing. This also happened on Forrestal class, and then it was fixed on Kitty Hawk class.

You may find these flaws on Ulyanovsk but never on Kitty Hawk or Nimitz.