CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[dawn_strike]

What I find quite interesting about that graphic, is two things:

1: we haven't seen it before. That is to say, I wonder if it is a graphic that they had developed themselves in an in house way, or if it is merely a graphic that we have yet to see.
2: the details of the island are very consistent with the wuhan mock up's latest modifications, namely the integrated mast, the geometry of the island for the radar arrays, and the deckhouse for the island itself.

It makes me wonder if the graphic might possibly be a somewhat accurate in house representation of what they expect 00X to look like, in which case this might possibly be one of the first true depictions of 00X that we can see.

Even so, I still doubt the accuracy of this CG, because of the flight deck...It merely looks like a Kuznetsov class with flat deck and catapults. I don't think PLAN is so satisfied with such kind of deck arrangement, since they should have gained some reasonable understanding about scheduling carrier-based aircrafts on CV-16 Liaoning and should have known the inevitable design limitations of her. It is understandable that CV17 generally follows Kuznetsov class, but they won't have to stick to it on CV18.

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Even so, I still doubt the accuracy of this CG, because of the flight deck...It merely looks like a Kuznetsov class with flat deck and catapults. I don't think PLAN is so satisfied with such kind of deck arrangement, since they should have gained some reasonable understanding about scheduling carrier-based aircrafts on CV-16 Liaoning and should have known the inevitable design limitations of her. It is understandable that CV17 generally follows Kuznetsov class, but they won't have to stick to it on CV18.

Is there really such a problem with the CV-17 and CV-18's deck arrangement ? Because from visual cues alone it is no different from the Nimitz and Ford class's. Design wise it pretty much maxed out the usable deck space available on a carrier. With a straight deck followed up by an angled one at the back.
The CV-18 may include incremental improvements such as a even broader and wider flight deck with even less sweep. But fundamentally there is no problem for it to emulate the CV-16 and CV-17.

 

[Jeff Head]

Obi Wan

I want that model...yes I do

 

[Gustaf Adolf]

I want that model...yes I do

What ship is that? It looks like the child of a type 001A and the type 002.

 

[Mirabo]

At this point, I'd like to suggest we refrain from bouncing to unfounded conclusions, because recent rumous have been incredibly shocking and contradictory. I wasn't going to share them here until things blew over, but since someone posted the infamous picture of the meeting room (the source has now been taken down, and has stirred up much controversy), I'll bite.

Last night, a big shrimp we're familiar with (指挥长) came out with these shocking rumors:

• 003 will likely be nuclear-powered CATOBAR with 3 catapults confirmed.
• 004 is almost certain to be nuclear-powered CATOBAR.
• A total of six aircraft carriers, not including 001 and 002, have been ordered, and contracts already signed.
• It is possible that the order will be increased from six, to eight carriers.

Fzgfzy was quick to shoot down the first point, saying that the PLAN will not make the leap to a nuclear-powered 003, having already spent much time modifying the plans to its current iteration, which is already being constructed in Shanghai's shipyards, and will not have modified it any further to use a nuclear powerplant. Moreover, PLAN steam propulsion systems are still lacking compared to the USN, and will likely spend more time trying to improve them before moving to nuclear, according to his post.

However, the other points still stand, including the order for 6 CATOBAR carriers.

Needless to say, these rumors had everyone up in arms. On one hand, 指挥长 is one of the most trusted and reliable sources we know, but on the other, these claims are outlandish. Right now, two possibilities exist: The big shrimp is wrong, and China remains on track for a 2 STOBAR, 4 CATOBAR navy by 2030. Or, we have completely underestimated the extent of President Xi's push for military expansion, and we will see a 2 STOBAR, 6 to 8 CATOBAR navy by 2030.

Make of this what you will.

 

[Deleted member 13312]

At this point, I'd like to suggest we refrain from bouncing to unfounded conclusions, because recent rumous have been incredibly shocking and contradictory. I wasn't going to share them here until things blew over, but since someone posted the infamous picture of the meeting room (the source has now been taken down, and has stirred up much controversy), I'll bite.

Last night, a big shrimp we're familiar with (指挥长) came out with these shocking rumors:

• 003 will likely be nuclear-powered CATOBAR with 3 catapults confirmed.
• 004 is almost certain to be nuclear-powered CATOBAR.
• A total of six aircraft carriers, not including 001 and 002, have been ordered, and contracts already signed.
• It is possible that the order will be increased from six, to eight carriers.

Fzgfzy was quick to shoot down the first point, saying that the PLAN will not make the leap to a nuclear-powered 003, having already spent much time modifying the plans to its current iteration, which is already being constructed in Shanghai's shipyards, and will not have modified it any further to use a nuclear powerplant. Moreover, PLAN steam propulsion systems are still lacking compared to the USN, and will likely spend more time trying to improve them before moving to nuclear, according to his post.

However, the other points still stand, including the order for 6 CATOBAR carriers.

Needless to say, these rumors had everyone up in arms. On one hand, 指挥长 is one of the most trusted and reliable sources we know, but on the other, these claims are outlandish. Right now, two possibilities exist: The big shrimp is wrong, and China remains on track for a 2 STOBAR, 4 CATOBAR navy by 2030. Or, we have completely underestimated the extent of President Xi's push for military expansion, and we will see a 2 STOBAR, 6 to 8 CATOBAR navy by 2030.

Make of this what you will.

6 CATOBARS by 2030 will be the best that China can do, and even then that is pushing things to the extreme. Assuming if both the JNCX and Dalian works full time non stop starting with the 003 (and Dalian gets working possibly at the end of this year). Both yards can potentially launch a carrier every 4 years (breakneck speed) which assuming if everything goes without a hitch means that by 2029 there will be 6 CATOBAR carriers launched and at various stages of fitting out/sea trials.

 

[by78]

At this point, I'd like to suggest we refrain from bouncing to unfounded conclusions, because recent rumous have been incredibly shocking and contradictory. I wasn't going to share them here until things blew over, but since someone posted the infamous picture of the meeting room (the source has now been taken down, and has stirred up much controversy), I'll bite.

Last night, a big shrimp we're familiar with (指挥长) came out with these shocking rumors:

• 003 will likely be nuclear-powered CATOBAR with 3 catapults confirmed.
• 004 is almost certain to be nuclear-powered CATOBAR.
• A total of six aircraft carriers, not including 001 and 002, have been ordered, and contracts already signed.
• It is possible that the order will be increased from six, to eight carriers.

Fzgfzy was quick to shoot down the first point, saying that the PLAN will not make the leap to a nuclear-powered 003, having already spent much time modifying the plans to its current iteration, which is already being constructed in Shanghai's shipyards, and will not have modified it any further to use a nuclear powerplant. Moreover, PLAN steam propulsion systems are still lacking compared to the USN, and will likely spend more time trying to improve them before moving to nuclear, according to his post.

However, the other points still stand, including the order for 6 CATOBAR carriers.

Needless to say, these rumors had everyone up in arms. On one hand, 指挥长 is one of the most trusted and reliable sources we know, but on the other, these claims are outlandish. Right now, two possibilities exist: The big shrimp is wrong, and China remains on track for a 2 STOBAR, 4 CATOBAR navy by 2030. Or, we have completely underestimated the extent of President Xi's push for military expansion, and we will see a 2 STOBAR, 6 to 8 CATOBAR navy by 2030.

Make of this what you will.

As far as I know, 指挥长 is not a big shrimp. He's an enthusiast who lives in Dalian and used to take photos of the shipyard from his apartment, until he was told by authorities to stop doing that.

 

[Intrepid]

What ship is that? It looks like the child of a type 001A and the type 002.

Ulyanovsk

 

[PanAsian]

At this point, I'd like to suggest we refrain from bouncing to unfounded conclusions, because recent rumous have been incredibly shocking and contradictory. I wasn't going to share them here until things blew over, but since someone posted the infamous picture of the meeting room (the source has now been taken down, and has stirred up much controversy), I'll bite.

Last night, a big shrimp we're familiar with (指挥长) came out with these shocking rumors:

• 003 will likely be nuclear-powered CATOBAR with 3 catapults confirmed.
• 004 is almost certain to be nuclear-powered CATOBAR.
• A total of six aircraft carriers, not including 001 and 002, have been ordered, and contracts already signed.
• It is possible that the order will be increased from six, to eight carriers.

Fzgfzy was quick to shoot down the first point, saying that the PLAN will not make the leap to a nuclear-powered 003, having already spent much time modifying the plans to its current iteration, which is already being constructed in Shanghai's shipyards, and will not have modified it any further to use a nuclear powerplant. Moreover, PLAN steam propulsion systems are still lacking compared to the USN, and will likely spend more time trying to improve them before moving to nuclear, according to his post.

However, the other points still stand, including the order for 6 CATOBAR carriers.

Needless to say, these rumors had everyone up in arms. On one hand, 指挥长 is one of the most trusted and reliable sources we know, but on the other, these claims are outlandish. Right now, two possibilities exist: The big shrimp is wrong, and China remains on track for a 2 STOBAR, 4 CATOBAR navy by 2030. Or, we have completely underestimated the extent of President Xi's push for military expansion, and we will see a 2 STOBAR, 6 to 8 CATOBAR navy by 2030.

Make of this what you will.

This is believable given how China chose to churn out the 055. Sure there are more untested technologies with a CATOBAR carrier but the balance of their technological strengths and weaknesses does lean towards nuclear.

I firmly believe this is driven by what they are perceiving as a perfect storm of strategic threats that may lead to all out war and these carriers would be a critical part of the minimum deterrence to prevent that, or in the worst case scenario still prevail in preserving territorial integrity including securing Taiwan.

This will mean they need to churn out more escorts in the 052 and 055 series though, so let's see if they do and how quickly.

 

[kwaigonegin]

6 + 2 would definitely be overachieving but then again it could potentially fit into my speculation that CV 16 and CV 17? will not serve out their entire full useful lives. I've had disagreements before even with couple folks here about China or PLAN saving or hoarding every equipment they can no matter how old however I believe that mentality is slowly changing. The China of 2020s and certainly 2030s CAN and likely WILL decomm, sell or scrap equipment or assets they deemed not up to par. No point keeping CV16 say in 2040 if you have SIX newly built and designed CV or CVNs allready!

with all that being said my thoughts are similar to Fzgfzy. I do not believe next one is a CVN but CV. It will be roughly the size of Forrestal class but obviously with more modern design and capabilities!