CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[kwaigonegin]

I wouldn't say that Kuznetsov is what the PLAN doesn't need, rather that STOBAR conventional carriers are less than ideal for the PLAN's eventual ambitions. I think nuclear CATOBAR has always been the PLAN's eventual goal, but 100,000 ton supercarriers may or may not be. While I personally feel that the PLAN will eventually head towards parity with the USN in terms of individual carrier capability, the PLAN itself may have always had more modest goals, perhaps with medium-size nuclear CATOBAR carriers in the 70-80,000 ton range. Nobody knows at this point except for the higher ups within the PLAN and the CMC. We may find out in about 15-20 years.

In the forseeable future PLAN's can't nor will their reach parity with the entire USN. That's not their goal anyway.
They will however reach parity with the USPACFLT in the next 20 years in my observation.

 

[kwaigonegin]

I don't think the PLAN needs any carriers period, but we've gone through that before. For all we know about the political leadership "forcing" a second Liaoning on the PLAN "to play it safe" could indicate that the political leadership wants the carrier program's belt tightened and/or de-prioritized while throwing it a bone. This would also mean no 3rd Liaoning type carrier or even no 3rd carrier of any type at all for some time.

Hmm that would be a negative ghost rider! If there is one thing that is almost a certainty is PLAN's ambition and expansion into organic air power. I can almost guarantee you PLAN will eventually have more than 2 carriers! Those new destroyers and cruisers they are building are not one off assets for fun. They are being build to make up multiple CSGs. Trust me!

Question is how many CSG? Most expert think 5 maybe 6 which should be more than enough for just the pacific. Anything more means they are venturing deep into the Indian Ocean, Med, Persian gulf etc.

 

[weig2000]

Hmm that would be a negative ghost rider! If there is one thing that is almost a certainty is PLAN's ambition and expansion into organic air power. I can almost guarantee you PLAN will eventually have more than 2 carriers! Those new destroyers and cruisers they are building are not one off assets for fun. They are being build to make up multiple CSGs. Trust me!

Question is how many CSG? Most expert think 5 maybe 6 which should be more than enough for just the pacific. Anything more means they are venturing deep into the Indian Ocean, Med, Persian gulf etc.

In the foreseeable future, China's directions of maritime interest are (Western) Pacific and Indian Ocean. It's a bit far-fetched to think other directions. PLAN has been conducting anti-piracy patrols around Gulf of Aden in Indian Ocean for eight years now. They're building a naval supply base at Djibouti right now.

Also see Xi Jinping's "One Belt, One Road" initiative.

 

[PanAsian]

Are you seriously out of your mind? I'm all for "out-of-box" or independent thinking and all that, but this? I don't even know where to start to refute these assertions. Let's start with some big pictures.

China is the world's second largest economy, and will very likely become the largest in the next decade. China is currently the world's largest trading nation. For many years, China has been world's largest or second largest destinations of foreign investment. Since last year, China's outbound investments has surpassed inbound investments and are set to grow rapidly in the future years. Chinese nationals are everywhere globally; since 2014, China has become the largest tourist originating country in the world. In other words, China's interests are global and it needs a blue-water navy to safeguard and support those interests, and the growing economy pays for it. The central pieces of that blue-water navy are carriers. Not just any carriers, but nuclear-powered super-carriers, eventually.

And those are not just PLAN's dreams and wishes. They're also part of the Chinese leadership's announced national maritime objective, with broad support from Chinese society. In November 2012, then president Hu Jintao declared that China’s objective was to become a strong or great maritime power. Xi Jinping further reinforced the objective. Here are a couple of background readings in case you're interested:

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, Rear Admiral Michael McDevitt, USN (retired)

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, Dr. Thomas J. Bickford, China Studies Division of CNA

The circumstance of China's blue-navy ambition and objective are quite different from those of Imperial Germany or Soviet Union. They are the natural results of growing national power, and are justified by the trade, investment, maritime and national security. Furthermore, China's geography is much more favorable than Germany and ex-Soviet Union for developing a global blue-water navy (See

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by Robert D. Kaplan for some discussion). It's therefore a more sustainable national strategy. PLAN pays close attention to the USN and tries to emulate them as much as possible (really the only model PLAN wants to emulate).

Hmm that would be a negative ghost rider! If there is one thing that is almost a certainty is PLAN's ambition and expansion into organic air power. I can almost guarantee you PLAN will eventually have more than 2 carriers! Those new destroyers and cruisers they are building are not one off assets for fun. They are being build to make up multiple CSGs. Trust me!

Question is how many CSG? Most expert think 5 maybe 6 which should be more than enough for just the pacific. Anything more means they are venturing deep into the Indian Ocean, Med, Persian gulf etc.

All of the above is true but that is not mutually exclusive with China's political leadership wanting to de-prioritize or make leaner its carrier program at this time.

- The PLA is going through a major structural re-organization
- Is subject to a major ongoing anti-corruption drive which goes all the way to the top
- The Chinese economy is going through a transformational rough patch
- Even the Chinese defense industry appears to be going through some significant re-alignments
- The international environment have also become more eventful, tense, and risky for China in recent years and is most likely to continue going in that direction

All these things lend weight to a re-evaluation and re-prioritization by the top level leadership of as costly, long term, and limited short term utility a program as the carrier program given that China has plenty other defense programs to pursue that have at least more utility shorter term.

 

[Blitzo]

All of the above is true but that is not mutually exclusive with China's political leadership wanting to de-prioritize or make leaner its carrier program at this time.

- The PLA is going through a major structural re-organization
- Is subject to a major ongoing anti-corruption drive which goes all the way to the top
- The Chinese economy is going through a transformational rough patch
- Even the Chinese defense industry appears to be going through some significant re-alignments
- The international environment have also become more eventful, tense, and risky for China in recent years and is most likely to continue going in that direction

All these things lend weight to a re-evaluation and re-prioritization by the top level leadership of as costly, long term, and limited short term utility a program as the carrier program given that China has plenty other defense programs to pursue that have at least more utility shorter term.

Lol all the points you made in there could also be potential arguments for why the Chinese political leadership may want to prioritize its carrier programme as well..

 

[Jeff Head]

Lol all the points you made in there could also be potential arguments for why the Chinese political leadership may want to prioritize its carrier programme as well..

Agreed.

...and we know the second is going to be launched soon.

...and based on everything I am hearing and have red over the last 9+ months I tend to believe that the 3rd one has already started building in terms of the logistics chain, parts being gathered, smaller assemblies being started. I hope in 2017 to see the actual yard work start like occurred with 001A last February (2015).

We shall see.

But if the thrid is already building, I do not see them stopping it at this point. it is clear to me that with the building of all the Type 052Ds and the starting of the Type 055 that one of the major goals and initiatives for the PLAN for the foreseeable future is going to be the formation of and becoming proficient in Carrier Strike Group creation, operations, and deployment to protect the SLOC portion of the Silk Road.

 

[antiterror13]

In the forseeable future PLAN's can't nor will their reach parity with the entire USN. That's not their goal anyway.
They will however reach parity with the USPACFLT in the next 20 years in my observation.

I don't think PLAN has any objectives/plans to be at parity with USN .. no need to, in my opinion too expensive. I think PLAN would be happy enough to be dominant in Western Pacific and quite strong along Chinese shipping lanes

 

[Iron Man]

I don't think the PLAN has any short to medium term plans to achieve overall parity with the USN. But this does not mean individual PLAN ships cannot do so either.

 

[PanAsian]

Lol all the points you made in there could also be potential arguments for why the Chinese political leadership may want to prioritize its carrier programme as well..

LOL, I guess that's true if someone thinks carriers are particularly useful for China.

 

[Blitzo]

LOL, I guess that's true if someone thinks carriers are particularly useful for China.

And the reverse of course is also true for someone who thinks carriers are not particularly useful for China...
Any premise or evidence can and will be interpreted based on the pre-existing biases that someone holds.


That said, I have to back up what weig2000 wrote in his reply to you -- looking back at your post, the suggestion that China does not need any carriers definitely warrants an "are you out of your mind". I have no idea how you're reading the tea leaves of China's domestic situation and China's geopolitical interests, but I think it must be very different to how the vast majority of others are reading it here.

As for 001A being possible "belt tightening" and potentially suggesting there being no third domestic carrier -- I think at this stage of the rumour cycle, as well as the limited tangible photo evidence and physical evidence we have, the very suggestion that there is no upcoming third carrier sits somewhere between very unlikely and veering on preposterous.