CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
I think everyone accepts that the first CVN will be many years away from construction -- however having a big shrimp directly confirm that a CVN is on the cards for the future is an important step forwards in the rumour cycle.
Agreed...but for me it is just another confirmation of something I determined was most likely in any case.
001A - STOBAR launch 2017
002 - 1st CATOBAR conventional launch 2020 or later
002A - 2nd CATOBAR conventional launch 2023 or later
003 - 1st Nuclear launch 2027 or there abouts.
If they did that schedule, it would be pretty phenomenal. I believe they are capable of it.
Compare the US:
Ford launch - 2013
JFK launch - 2018
Enterprise launch - 2023
So, in ten years, the US launches three...or one every five years. If China can launch four in ten years, the last three all being large CATOBAR carriers of two different classes...like I said, that would be impressive. And, if per chance they started building them in two yards like the US used to do, they might even improve that schedule.
We shall see.
I think it is easily possible CV-19 will be nuclear rather than conventional.
Could be...they are certainly capable if they are ready. Just depends on how fast they want to get there...and how ready they are.
But experience shows, with new naval classes that are reaching into new tech for them, oft times they build two of them first...or maybe at least...before either standardizing on them or moving on.
I think they will build two conventional CATOBARs for the same reasons they are building two STOBARs.
There is no rush. It will give them the benefit of some logistical and training benefit, and it allows them to step by step take their time to reach their goals while minimizing risk, and maximizing the capability that next step offers.
But to name a few:
Type 071 LPD
Type 054 FFG
Tyep 052 DDG
Type 052B DDG
Type 051C DDG
Type 052C DDG
...and of course CV-16 and CV-17
Time will tell.
I see two differences between the carriers and the other examples you mentioned. The first is that CV-16 and CV-17 are not exactly the same, with the latter incorporating evolutionary improvements in the former's design, while the other ships are essentially identical copies of each other.
The second is somewhat related to the first, and that is cost. The PLAN may not be able to afford building 2 carriers at a time since these ships are significantly more expensive than the other ships, especially if the lessons learned from operational experience can already be applied to the next carrier to be constructed. CV-18 may or may not be a more significant improvement over CV-17 (which is why we have been debating between "001B" and "002"), and same thing for CV-19. We will not be able to see confirmation or rejection of this paired ship hypothesis until CV-19 in any case.
The second is somewhat related to the first, and that is cost. The PLAN may not be able to afford building 2 carriers at a time since these ships are significantly more expensive than the other ships, especially if the lessons learned from operational experience can already be applied to the next carrier to be constructed. CV-18 may or may not be a more significant improvement over CV-17 (which is why we have been debating between "001B" and "002"), and same thing for CV-19. We will not be able to see confirmation or rejection of this paired ship hypothesis until CV-19 in any case.
That is correct...though the further we go along, the chatter and the tlk from some of the big shrimps may give us a good read on what is coming.
But not yet...not yet.
Yes at this stage not even the big shrimps are fully certain what's going to happen after the first 002, however it has been mentioned by some of them once or twice that they personally expect a second 002 class carrier to be built (possibly at DL), before moving to a nuclear carrier.
I would assume those personal rough predictions from them may be due to their own assessments of where the nuclear reactor technology is at in the R&D cycle, and also based on their assessment of the Navy's desire for an additional carrier after 002.
In other words, the important thing to look at would be when the relevant subsystems for a nuclear carrier would be ready, as well as what the Navy's own carrier requirements between the entry of service of 002 and the expected projected entry of service of the first nuclear carrier is.
I personally think all the relevant subsystems and technology for the nuclear carrier will probably be ready around 2025, and given some safe leeway of construction of the hull vs subsystem delivery I agree with your previously stated 2027 launch date for a nuclear carrier as reasonable, with probably a full commissioning into service near the very late 2020s or 2030, assuming no major issues come up in fitting out and trials.
So assuming 002 is launched at about 2020 and commissioned in about 2023 (at the latest), then the Navy will essentially have three carriers to work with (CV-16 Liaoning, CV-17 001A and CV-18 002) until the nuclear carrier enters service which would likely be seven years later. But if the Navy's demands for carrier numbers is greater than that, then it would make good sense to start building a second 002 at or before the first 002 is launched, to enter service around 2026, which would give them four carriers to work with until the first nuclear carrier arrives into service.
But like I said, that depends on the Navy's own projected requirements for just how many carriers they'll want in the mid 2020s to 2030 time frame, as well as how quickly the nuclear carrier's subsystems can be matured. If the nuclear carrier's subsystems can mature faster than expected, then I suppose it is very possible they might choose to go directly to a nuclear carrier after only building a single 002. Or similarly, if the Navy judges three carriers as a sufficient force for their needs between the mid 2020s to 2030, then they might not opt for a second 002 either, and feel comfortable waiting for the nuclear carrier later on.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
Yes it's always good to hear fairly reliable confirmation however I think there are two things we can speculate with 99% certainty regardless of big shrimps.
CVNs for PLAN and LRSB for PLAAF.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
Your timeline makes sense but I disagree with your numbers. I think by early 2030s PLAN will have 5-6 carriers. 4/5 conventional and 1 CVN. I think unless something catastrophic happens to the Chinese economy, 2020s naval expansion will be EVEN more aggressive than the 2010s.