@Blitzio ,
@Kwaigonegin ,
@Vesicles ,
@JeffHead
Wow, everyone's jumping my previous post. I am just saying China might be streamlining and slowing down their carrier program, not cancelling it.
Well, if everyone disagrees with you, you might want to rethink your theory...
It is exactly because the carrier program is a long term project that it can afford to be slowed down in the short term without missing any long term target date. In the meantime resources can be prioritized on other projects that are relatively "behind" and/or are more critical or useful nearer term, some of which will be needed to make good use out of carriers anyways.
First of all, they have waited. If you look at the timelines of their weapons development programs, you will see that they patiently waited, studied and planned all their projects based on their financial and technical situations. They started their carrier program way after they started everything else. Heck, they left the CV-16 alone and untouched for almost a decade without doing anything to it (nothing visible to us at least). So they have waited. And based on their assessment of their overall economic, political and military conditions as well as their technical readiness, they feel that it is now a good time to go full throttle on the carrier program. So that's why they are going full steam ahead on the CV-17.
Secondly, China is at a stage of its economic development, where they can afford to do all these things simultaneously. In fact, they have been tackling multiple high-profile weapons development programs without affecting their economic development.
Many aircraft types and aircraft engines are first to come to mind. Then there are aircraft numbers which are lacking not just for any carriers but for the PLAN and PLA at large such as with helicopters. China has to prioritize holistically including scenarios where carriers are of marginal use or irrelevant such as the Koreas and far Western China/Central Asia/South Asia.
For China to be able to concurrently both defend the homeland and protect SLOCs/carry out expeditionary missions of any kind, which realistically has to be a long term goal, they will need at least double their current number of top-of-the-line destroyers, frigates, SSNs, and corresponding support ships. A few 055 destroyers/cruisers and additional overseas friendly ports/bases would also help.
These assets, excepting bases, are plenty useful and more flexible than carriers on their own, and present a better opportunity cost calculation in the shorter term for critical scenarios such as Taiwan, ECS, and SCS. For a Chinese carrier force to make a difference in these scenarios, which may all explode at once, they have to posses at least 6 CSGs. This is best achieved in the long term through building the rest of the CSGs, including aircraft, before the additional carriers and practicing with existing carriers in the meantime.
They are doing all these things as we speak. are we not seeing the commissioning of Type 052Ds almost on a bimonthly basis? What about all those 056's? Just take a close look at the SDF's Navy page. You will see how busy the PLAN is.
You cannot emphasize one and ignore the other. All these systems, including the carriers, destroyers, SSNs, etc, must be integrated together in order to maximize their efficacy. You can't focus solely on destroyers and ignore the carriers, just as you cannot ignore the destroyers and focus exclusively on the carriers.
It may look slow at first because they have to develop all these systems simultaneously: one carrier, plus a few destroyers, plus a few SSNs, etc. It certainly won't be as fast as coming up with dozens of destroyers and SSNs within a year's time if they slow down their carrier development. However, those new highly advanced destroyers, which have been designed to escort carriers as one of their most important missions, would be used to only partial of their optimal capabilities. And without carriers, they can also be vulnerable to attacks. And obviously, without proper escort, carriers will also be vulnerable.
So you need all systems integrated together to maximize their offensive and defensive capabilities. It may look slow, but every system commissioned will be maximized to its full capacity and well-protected. then every new addition would be a solid advancement to their overall capabilities. They are building a solid foundation. Every brick added will be as solid as it can be, instead of just throwing bricks to a loose pile.
