CV-17 Shandong (002 carrier) Thread I ...News, Views and operations
- Thread starter Jeff Head
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I have been saying end of 1st quarter or early 2nd quarter for some time...back when other forums were saying it would be launched before the end of 2016.
But the progress on the carrier was what told me about when she would be launched.
HAving worked in the defense industry doing engineering and design work on weapons systems, particularly naval systems, it was clear to me about what time we could expect her.
Glad to see it. soon the Chinese will become one of only a handful of nations with more than one large aircraft carrier.
Within 3 years, sh will probably be the second nation with three true carriers...though INdia will be not too far behind.
Now, Japan has four of these types of carriers:
But they are currently for helos and Ospreys. Although it is possible that they could one day buy F-35Bs and embark them on a couple of them. Nothing like that has occurred yet. If you ever hear of a Jpanese budget that includes F-35Bs, then you will know that they intend to make those vessels into true carriers.
Nope, it is clear that China has set its goals, and they are based on protecting their interests and developing SLOCs, to probably build five or six carriers and the only other country that has that many (and more) is the US.
India, Russia, Great Britan, France, etc., etc. have no intention of building that many. Only China and the US.
I'd like to add that Japan would have to extensively refit their helicopter carriers if they want to operate F-35B's. As STOVL aircraft, they would require a ski-jump ramp to launch, which Japanese DDH's don't have. Neither were their decks built to sustain the incredible amount of heat generated by the F-35B's engine in vertical landing.
If you ever hear about Japan expanding its budget to acquire F-35B's, you can expect them to have to refit their helicopter carriers with a ski-jump and a reinforced landing deck as well. The Spanish Juan Carlos I has the same shortcoming despite being designed specifically for the F-35B, as it was designed before the excess heat issue was discovered.
This sort of costly refitting means that Japan is unlikely to ever use their DDH's for operating F-35B's from. The Harrier, on the other hand, is a viable choice due to the low heat it generates on takeoff and landing, and the fact that it can take off vertically which the F-35 can't do. Japan would honestly be better off constructing a new class of carrier vessel if they want to operate fixed-wing aircraft.
MwRYum
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F-35B and the like are offensive assets by nature, as fully decked-out aircraft carriers are nowhere as "defensive assets" by any degree, with the exception of anti-submarine helicopter carriers. When Japan is going to procure its first squadron of F-35B, it'd be after they toss away the peace constitution and re-establish its national military (ie. ditched the "Self-Defense Force" guise, "get real" so to speak) - the reason I said "when" not "if" is because I firmly believe it's just a matter of time.
That said, China is building up for the coming war in the future, within a decade if I so dare to make an educated guess (most of the major new assets should be in place at any viable number by 2020, giving the PLA an qualitative facelift, give the Chinese leadership the confidence to utilise the military as part of the diplomacy kit).
Still, CV-17 (stay on-topic) is just part of the beginner kit (Liaoning is a "starter kit") in Chinese pursuit for carrier aviation and naval upgrade, proving that their shipbuilding industry can build a carrier, from CAD drawing to smelting the right steel alloy to building it and finishing it; with that under the belt, then maybe time to talk about stuff like CATOBAR and UAV (even UCAV if you may) go carrier-borne.
It would be much harder to justify a fixed-wing carrier under their current allegedly "pacifist" constitution. They would probably have to amend that as well.
Wow, you just barely beat me to it.
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Correct. Which is why that is likely never going to happen under the current version of the constitution unless they want to get flamed by basically every one of their neighbors.
MwRYum
Major
Which is why they're making progress in ditching the peace constitution, give or take a few years more the Japanese Government will make that final push.
But the biggest blockade for the Japanese to realise their ambition to resurrect their carrier dream is money - for one, Japan isn't as rich as they were back in the early 1990s, and that's unlikely to change in the next decade or so.
Given the rumours we've had of 001A over the last few years, I think portraying 001A as a ship built to "prove" that the industry can build a carrier from start to end, and 001A should more be seen as the low risk approach for adding more carrier capability in the short term future before 002 is ready.
Putting it another way, building 001A I think should not be seen as a "stepping stone" for the industry to build, before they can start towards the true capability the Navy is angling for (a CATOBAR carrier like 002), especially because the entire design/development process of 002 likely would have begun well before 001A entered assembly as we saw it begin in 2015, and even possibly early stages of fabrication for 002 may have begun in 2015 as well, meaning there is little to no "time" to absorb the "lessons" from the actual production of 001A given 001As actual production would be ending after fabrication of 002 (and the design/development process behind 002) has begun.
Yes, these forst two are what they are cutting their teeth on, and they are at the same time potent vessels.
They will then have two conventional CATOBAR carriers which will be even more capable. And then, after that development cycle, I believe they will start in with CATOBAR, uclear powered super carriers of their own...and that's what they will build going forward.
As to JApan, I agree. probably just a matter of when.
But even then, once China has six carrier groups, only the US will be in a position to counter that...of course, if the alliances with Australia, Japan, and Korea hold, the balance of power will still favor that alliance heavily...particularly as those nations continue to bolster their relationships with INida.
Just the same, China with six very capable carriers and the strike group escorts to go with them will be nothing to trifle with.
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