Henri K take on launch date 23 April . He doesn't believe it is likely . Based on the premise they need to get the wiring for fuel pump, compressor for tooling and gen set for light. He doesn't see the photo of CV17 at night which clearly show light emanating from the inside of superstructure. So there is electrical connection But it could be brought from the shore. Painting is clearly began. So he might be off, Mobile crane is on the deck indicating that the radar installation is imminent
Since cutting the first sheet of the second Chinese aircraft carrier in August 2013, observers and analysts have all tried to set a timetable for its construction, notably to know when the launch will take place on one side , Then admission to active service on the other.
Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian (Photo: 网)
Brigadier-General WU Qian, spokesman and deputy director of the Ministry of Defense's Department of Public Information and Public Relations, recently said in
that " the first native carrier is making progress and is progressing very well. As for the good news you've raised, I think we're not going to wait for long. "
WU made this statement by answering a question from a reporter as to whether the second Chinese aircraft carrier will be launched this year on the Chinese Navy commerative day, ie on April 23rd.
The spokesman of the Chinese army did not answer the question clearly, which is not surprising, but many people already believe on this date very symbolic in China.
So is it technically feasible to float this Chinese aircraft carrier about 60,000 tons, given the state of progress of its construction in progress?
The second Chinese aircraft carrier in dry dock (Photo: 牛 小队 小队)
The 14 ° elevation of the second Chinese aircraft carrier (Photo: 牛 小队 小队)
The superstructure seen in profile (Photo: 牛 小队 小队)
To try to answer this question, we will rely on two benchmarks.
The first was
who said that the ship could be launched when the electrical wiring of fuel pumps, compressors and diesel generators would be Finished, and that the engine room will use the internal source for its lighting.
The other landmark is of course the history of
Liaoning aircraft carrier transformation work . The enthusiasm of the Chinese amateurs at the time allowed us to have, on a regular basis, quite detailed photos to follow the construction of this first Chinese aircraft carrier practically in real time.
The presence of a mobile crane and electric coils on the flight deck (Photo: hanhua_nuaa)
We do not yet have night photos to see if part of the Chinese aircraft carrier is lit by its own sources, but the new photos taken on 4 April by various spotters in Dalian, where the ship is under construction, show us That the electrical wiring installation would still be in progress, if one believes in the presence of the non-empty yellow coils on the flight deck.
It can also be seen that the four flat-surface radar locations are always covered by metal sheets, a sign that the installation of these imposing and fragile equipment has not yet taken place. But the fact that a mobile crane is now on the bridge suggests that the start of this work could begin soon because the same type of crane was also used in late April 2011 for the handling and installation of face radars Planes on the
Liaoning aircraft carrier .
These facilities on
Liaoning lasted three weeks at the time, from April 28 to May 16, 2011. This means that even when the facilities on the new Chinese aircraft carrier start in the days to come, they probably will not finish before the end of the month.
Installation of faceplate radars on the Liaoning aircraft carrier in 2011 (Photo: 下乡 下乡)
The other indication that we can have is the painting of the dead works of superstructures that seems not yet to take place. But this is not very significant since the same painting of the superstructure of the aircraft carrier
Liaoning lasted only two weeks.
All of these elements tell us that it will be difficult, even very difficult, for the second Chinese aircraft carrier to be launched on 23 April 2017, that is to say in two weeks and Half, when the Chinese navy will celebrate its 68th anniversary.
Of course, in a country like China, miracles are always possible, but it is on condition that this still respects the laws of physics.
Meanwhile, we maintain our forecast made a year ago about a possible launching of the ship before the end of June 2017, and admission to active duty by September 2019. Time will tell if we have been too Pessimistic, or not sufficiently optimistic, in our analysis.
Main Milestones STOBAR Type 001
(16 Liaoning), Dalian STOBAR Type 001A
Dalian CATOBAR Type 002
Shanghai
General Design Completed in 2007 Started in early 2012
Initial technical design Completed in March 2015 (?)
Review made in July 2015
Detailed technical design Completed in June 2008
Signature of the contract with the shipyard March 2009
Industrial Process Design Completed in 2nd semester 2009
Cutting sheet metal 28 August 2013
Construction of sections Started in January 2014
Laid down March 10, 2015
Arming of enclosed compartments Completed at the end of 2009
Offshore Prev: Q2 2017
Pond tests Started in 2nd half of 2010
Testing at sea Started on August 10, 2011
Admission to active service 25 September 2012 Prev: September 2019
To be continued.
Henri K.
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