Nah, they think Webby just wears that "purty" gun for looks?????, prolly ought to listen to the man with the "kill switch"???? just my two cents.
Crisis in the Ukraine
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
- Status
Nah, they think Webby just wears that "purty" gun for looks?????, prolly ought to listen to the man with the "kill switch"???? just my two cents.
I somehow doubt that very much or that there is anything in any truck other than genuine humanitarian aid. The whole point of the convey only works if it is an aid convoy. Moscow has taken the R2P route a la Bosnia and feels it has a duty and does need any "permission" to send it in. The challenge is to Kiev to try and stop it.
Destroying an Aid convoy would be press so bad even the MSM would struggle to spin it and of course the RF would have all the Casus Belli it needs for some form of direct intervention.
Even such an event though is unlikely to send the Russian Ground Forces rolling. The best bet would an air campaign along the lines of the current NATO activity in Iraq (and previously in Libya) plus the chance of official Russian recognition of the state of Novorossiya.
Moving on to the General SITREP. There is a new map today dated to 20th and I have the BBC version
Clearly the maps are quite different and one of them has to be incorrect.
I am sure different members will have different preferences and prejudices, but I do feel that the Novorossiyan version is closer to the reality by a very long country mile.
According to the BBC, the Ukrainians have retaken the whole of the road from Debaltsevo, through Krasni Luch and down to the border, plus of course the Souther Cauldron never happened and all of South Lugansk is in pro Kiev hands. On top of that Kiev now holds Torez is still battling in Shaktarsk, occupies the MH17 crash site and has separated Donetsk from Lugansk. In addition the enclave of Pro Kiev fighters at Lughansk Airport have open access to the rest of Government controlled territory.
I think anyone that has read the accounts and seen the footage from the warzone will recognise the BBC version for the fantasy that it is and that it should be produced and broadcast at public expense and absolute scandal and disgrace. I guess this (and previous BBC maps) came from Kiev in advance and were supposed to reflect what they had expected to happen at the start of the mission.
Looking however at the militia map, one thing immediately strikes and that is the expansion of territory to the North West of Lugansk, with the previous retaking of Pervomaisk and the advance North to occupy a long stretch of the Highway to Lugansk, now being held from Gorskoe. This means that Kiev forces around the North of Lugansk are themselves cut off from resupply and that a new cauldron is closing above them, hastened by the recapture of the suburb of Stanitsa Luganskaya, the capture of which was much broadcast by Kiev last week. The New cauldron when it closes will trap forces around Veselaya Taraskova and Metallist. It will depend which Northern towns are recaptured as the cauldron closes.
This would be the second cauldron around Lugansk with the long established other to the South around the City's airport.
In Donetsk, the second Southern cauldron is all but closed with a remnant of the long suffering 24th stuck in a small enclave by the Russian border. The other main action is centred on Ilovasik, from where all sides report very heavy fighting. North of Donetsk heavy fighting around Yasinovataya, where Kiev still hopes to cut a swathe and isolate Gorlovka.
I hope the proper sitrep is published soon.
My bet would be that neither of them is correct.
Last edited:
Delft, this is an unsubstantiated comment.
The country is in a civil war. They will seek to deprive the OPFOR of resource...but not specifically targeting their own citizens.
Clearly in a civil war, those actively fighting the existing government cannot expect that government to supply them with power.
There you go again, Delft.delft said:
No, it most certainly is not the only possibility.
You need to stop making such affirmative statements that only inflame the thread, and are based on you own premise.
You are free to you opinion, but not to declare them here as fact. There has been no official investigation or determination. There is no "proof" either way.
At this point, with two large entities (rebels and Russia on one side...Ukraine and western governments on the other), it is not likely that an accepted version for both sides will ever be forthcoming.
It is so now. One side soundly rejects evidence of fairly clear evidence and statements taken from electronic intercept, while the other rejects radar images of a Ukrainian military aircraft in the vicinity and potential combat damage.
There is evidence on both sides which the other side...and their supporters...discount.
Let's leave it at that without saying either side is the "only" possibility...because it is definitely not.
Is it reasonable to destroy the electricity supply and water supply of tens of thousands of civilians and thus enable the health of your own innocent civilians, including children. I would think it is even contrary to the laws of war.
It is a fact that it was Kiev that delayed the travel of the Dutch expedition to the crash site by a week until the Kiev forces were fighting in the area and then the Dutch limited themselve to the recovery of most but not all of the human remains. That's why we have now three theories about how MH17 was brought down, by Buk missile, by a Su-25 or a MiG-29. If Kiev was not guilty it would have been greatly to its advantage to have this matter cleared up and enable a search for the guilty party, either the federalists or Russia. So when Kiev practices obstruction the conclusion must be clear.
Zool
Junior Member
It's very much an Urban conflict in the sense that battles are taking place in and around population centers. The Eastern forces do not operate or deploy from traditional military bases and their supply lines are tied to the cities and villages under siege by the Western forces. As deplorable as it is, civilians will die and essential infrastructure will be destroyed in these scenario's. It's the nature of this type of warfare. I expect civilian casualties are vastly unintentional (reconciliation of some form with the East being required as a national exit strategy), while Infrastructure is a deliberate strategic target.
Concerning MH17, I agree with Jeff that it does not help the discussion for folks to make any declarative statements about who brought the aircraft down. That's part of why I took exception to Broccoli making that very same statement in the previous page of this thread. We don't have enough information to know for sure.
We can make deductions and try to form reasoned theories from the best information at hand, concerning MH17 or other events on the ground. That's about it. After that, the back and forth / snide comments just become propaganda to support a particular view point or disparage the other. There are many great discussions take have taken place in this forum which I enjoy reading (example China Geopolitics thread - the first one - or the Aerodynamics thread), but they tend to get hijacked by emotional posts and eventually shut down by a mod. Let's try to look at events and subjects from all sides and not get overly defensive if facts or reasonable information tend to go against our view point
Cheers
lmao what you said made absolutely no sense there. one, if the tanks were hidden you would not have known; two, russia has been delivering tanks day in day out, no need to hide them at all; 3, those trucks arent big enough to hold tanks; 4, there is no point in risking getting caught with the world watching.
i suggest you use a little bit of critical thinking to filter out the BS from whoever it is that's feeding you. and if ukrainians were to believe any of that stuff, well then they deserve to lose the war because stupid people generally don't win wars.
Half of the Russian aid convoy has entered Ukraine and reached Luhansk. This is from the BBC website:
Note Yatsenyuk's remark I made bolt.
The Statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry about this matter is at
published today.
Original at
This might be another interpretation of R2P. The ICRC was not present apparently because Kiev refused to give the needed guarantee.
Note Yatsenyuk's remark I made bolt.
The Statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry about this matter is at
published today.
Original at
Last edited:
- Status