Crisis in the Ukraine

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Dannhill

Junior Member
LOL I do not doubt the rebels are losing territories because they simply do not have enough of everything to fight everywhere. I had very much declared that in my reply to you.


I'm not going to argue here, so you may have the last word: Don't you think the area held by Separatists is shrinking? It appears to be the case even by looking at (the links which were posted in this thread)
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Now I'll go for walk to woods in Prague (yes, we have them here! :) several square miles in several parts of the town). Cheers.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Don't you think the area held by Separatists is shrinking?

Jura asks an interesting question and also draws attention to one of the more bizarre aspects of this conflict, which the two almost diametrically opposed narratives as to what is happening and who is winning.

I am going to repost the NR sit map of Aug 15thand also the BBC map that they have used for the last three weeks now.

2i134ls.gif


2hhk4gm.jpg


I would say that overall, over the course of the last couple of weeks, the militia have gained territory. More critically perhaps is that the Ukrainian military have failed to take any significant territory. More specifically, they they are unable to hold territory, especially strategic territory for long, after they take it.

The Ukraine holds many advantages, specifically in terms of manpower and firepower, but seems unable to make those advantages work for them. Over the last few weeks we know that four Ukrainian brigades have been "annihilated" as functioning military units - the 72nd, 79, and 24th in the Southern Cauldron, plus the 25th near Torez. Two if not three of these brigades were Airborne and presumably regarded as elite, yet had there rear ends presented to them on plates by the militia. This is hardly great news for Kiev.

The Ukraine has some 50,000 troops ion the Donbass, but still cannot bring this matter to a close. Two more brigades are now trapped in a new Southern Cauldron and further troops are being raised in a deeply unpopular general draft. Poorly trained, unmotivated/unwilling conscripts will be bad enough, but in what are they going to fight? On paper Kiev has a very substantial strategic armour reserve situated throughout the country. In reality though much of this reserve is little more than open air scrapyard where substantial cannibalism has been the norm fr decades to keep the active units operational. If 10% of this reserve is ultimately salvageable, they will be lucky!

The word fluid is often used to describe the situation in Eastern Ukraine and this is probably the most accurate description. Yes the basic militia defenders; mostly light infantry, have to pull back when the Ukrainian armour attacks, but the Ukrainian armour itself has proven unable to withstand the counter attacks of the Heavy Militia units. Moreover the bulk of none civilian casualties lie on the Ukrainian side, while success such as the Southern Cauldron are swelling the lists of the militias heavy weapons, making them stronger at the time when Kiev is losing its best units, huge amounts of its best weapons and generally growing weaker.

There is of course the final factor to consider: wider support for the militia throughout the generally Russian/ Pro Russian East of the Country. Kiev's biggest nightmare is that the failure to suppress the uprising in Lughansk and Donetsk and event to suffer tactical reverses and retreats, could reawaken the militancy in areas from Kharkov to Odessa and change the terms of the game completely.
 
I came back from two forests, am surprised by this:

I would say that overall, over the course of the last couple of weeks, the militia have gained territory. ...

but no problem, in a pub, I can argue for hours :) so let's look at your maps at
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("August 6 - 15") clearly shows a smaller Separatists-held territory than the first one ("July 11 - 15") on that web-page:
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and I wonder when the area was minimal in between the two periods (it would have to go through a minimum to be able to grow again)? the answer would be, for example, "August 1 - 10" (that's just what I'm guessing by a cursory look)
And the second question is if you think if it's beneficial for Separatists to extend their territory, I mean at tactical level, instead of going into Urban Combat?
 

delft

Brigadier
Re #572
Besides which if, by a now unlikely occurrence, Kiev would be able to become militarily effective its use of artillery against inhabited blocks of flats has long given Russia an excuse to invoke the NATO doctrine of R2P. I think that Russia takes the development slowly to allow time for people within and outside Ukraine to develop a disgust with the Kiev regime. That why it allows Kiev obstruction to delay the aid convoy. Kiev announced that it was sending a convoy of its own. Where has that gone to?
The economy will help with this inside. Think of the decision to stop selling military goods to Russia ( WaPo, about a page before this post ). Outside more people are wondering were the evidence on shooting down MH17 has gone to and why the Kiev cannot produce a a proposal for more autonomy for the provinces. And the effect of the sanctions against Russia on the economy of Western Europe will also be important.
 

thunderchief

Senior Member
Apparently, Ukrainian army is now using T-72 tanks, one is already destroyed. Ukraine mostly sold their own T-72s received from breakup of Soviet Union (or let them rust), because they could not produce parts for them (T-72 factories were/are in Russia , T-80 was/is produced in Ukraine) . There are speculations on internet that T-72s now appearing on battlefield belonged to Hungary, and that Ukraine was forced to buy them because of heavy losses. Anyway, take everything with grain of salt, as usual ;)

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t_72b(3).jpg


t_72b_2.jpg
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
The Ukraine has had a number of T72's they are just not the prefered type of the Ukraine due to the fact that they had there own Tank production lines for T64 at the The Malyshev Factory in Kharkiv.
 

delft

Brigadier
From the BBC site:
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17 August 2014 Last updated at 11:53 GMT

Ukraine crisis: Russian aid convoy arrives at border



Lorries from a Russian convoy carrying aid to eastern Ukraine have reached a border post controlled by separatists.

But they seem unlikely to cross into Ukraine immediately as the Red Cross said it had still not received security guarantees for the convoy to continue.

Earlier Ukraine's military said that separatists had shot down a government fighter jet near the rebel-held city of Luhansk in the east of the country.

A military spokesman said the pilot had ejected and was safe.

In other developments:

Ukrainian Security Council spokesman Andriy Lysenko says government forces have taken a rebel-controlled police station in Luhansk and raised the Ukrainian flag "after a battle for... a residential district"
Rebel sources say 10 civilians had been killed in the city of Donetsk over the past 24 hours as government forces continue an offensive
Mr Lysenko says a convoy of rocket launchers has been seen crossing from Russia into Ukraine, days after two Western journalists reported seeing military hardware entering from Russia. Russia has denied sending any weapons
The Russian, Ukrainian, German and French foreign ministers are scheduled to hold talks on the eastern Ukraine crisis in Berlin later on Sunday

More than 2,000 civilians and combatants have been killed since mid-April, when Ukraine's government sent troops to put down an uprising by pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

But it faced a new challenge on Sunday as the leader of the ultra-nationalist Right Sector threatened to withdraw volunteers fighting on the government side.

Dmytro Yarosh said Right Sector would launch a "campaign in Kiev" if its demands, including the release of detained members, were not met within 48 hours.

He called on President Petro Poroshenko to "immediately bring order" to the Interior Ministry, which he accused of harbouring "revanchist forces".

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Analysis: David Stern, BBC News, Kiev

Ukraine's government seems to have made a devil's bargain, by allowing the formation of loosely-controlled paramilitary groups to fight in the country's east.

That some of these volunteers are ultranationalists, far-right extremists and sometimes even neo-Nazis seemed to be worth the gamble. Anyone who was willing to risk his life to defend Ukraine at this critical juncture was welcome.

Also figuring into their logic was the fact that the insurgency itself is a more pressing threat than far-right fighters, that these individuals are a minority among the Ukrainian forces and that Nazis and extremists are heavily represented among the pro-Russian militants.

Still, there has been virtually no public debate about whether it was a good idea to give guns to people and groups with extremist views. Now, with Right Sector threatening to march on the capital to enforce their demands, maybe this very overdue discussion will begin.

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Convoy 'legal'

The government plane had been shot down after launching an attack "to eliminate a large group of rebels", Ukrainian military spokesman Leonid Matyukhin said, quoted by AFP news agency.

The pilot ejected from the aircraft safely and rescuers delivered him to a safe location, the spokesman added.

Meanwhile some 16 vehicles from the 280-lorry Russian convoy carrying humanitarian aid for eastern Ukraine were seen arriving at the border.

The Red Cross, quoted by Reuters news agency, said Ukrainian and Russian customs officials had agreed to inspect the lorries.

But the Izvaryne crossing where the vehicles have arrived is controlled by rebels, so it is not clear how Ukrainian officials will reach them.

Kiev has insisted that any aid sent to eastern Ukraine from Russia should cross a government-controlled part of the border.

Also, Ukraine's Security Council tweeted that its border guards had not received any paperwork for the cargo.

The convoy has been parked near the town of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky for several days after setting out from near Moscow on Tuesday, said to be carrying 2,000 tonnes of aid.

Russian officials quoted by Russia's Ria news agency said that lorries were being sent out in small groups to avoid causing traffic jams, but there were no plans for any of them to cross the border on Sunday.

The Ukrainian government said late on Saturday that it had declared the convoy "legal", but Red Cross officials speaking at the time said it had still not been given clearance because of some outstanding security issues.

There had been fears expressed by Ukraine and by Western governments that the convoy could be carrying arms for the rebels or could be used as a pretext by Russia for military action.

Russia has denied any military involvement with the convoy.

Note the importance of Right Sector for the Kiev regime. Freeing imprisoned extremists will have its own price in Kiev and other parts of Ukraine. Btw BBC doesn't say how many are imprisoned and how important they are.
 
17 Ukrainian soldiers crossed border of RF and surrendered .

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But that is not big news . Big news is their apparent claim that 3 brigades of Ukrainian army suffered heavy loses . I cannot verify authenticity of video below, but it looks genuine to me .

[video=youtube;o77lO7KmftI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o77lO7KmftI[/video]

Thud, is this the same bunch which ИТАР-ТАСС says was now sent back to Ukraine?
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(anybody can click on like Union Jack icon to read it in English)
I'm asking because I'm experiencing problems with
Adobe Flash Player 14.0 r0
:-( so I couldn't compare the faces in the video you posted and the picture in the link I provided (the picture is only available in the Russian version of the article though) ... anyway, the number of soldiers is the same: 17
 
The BBC has corrected its earlier story about Zakharchenco's Military reserve.
...

oops, I almost missed that ... my Video Player or what's the name has issues (some videos SOMETIMES can't be played AND listened to for longer like five seconds) so in my post
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/members-club-room/crisis-ukraine-39-6939.html#post300960
I assumed the summary given by that Russian radio
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was correct. It isn't. I shoud've been more careful.
More on this story:
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