Crisis in the Ukraine

[Lintuperhonen]

that would be quite significant if it is true. the siege of donetsk will be something like moscow. if DPR can fend off the Ukrainian army until winter, the additional strain on logistics as a result of cold weather might preclude any major offensive until early next year.

I do not think this claim is very valid in the Ukrainian conflict. The Ukrainian army is used to the Ukrainian winter (It would be rather strange if they were not.) while the German army of 1941 could not function properly during the Russian winter due to their own much milder winters, whereas for the Finnish army winter fighting was business as usual.

Another factor behind the German defeat at the gates of Moscow was the different rail gauge between Germany and the USSR (1435 mm compared to 1524 mm) which caused a severe shortage of rolling stock for the Germans in the East (Finland had the same gauge as the USSR so our forces had no such problem), which is certainly not the case for the Ukrainian units operating inside their own country.

A third advantage for the Soviets in the Battle of Moscow was their utilisation of fresh units drawn from Siberia which ensured them a numerical superiority, which certainly is not an option for the separatists as they have no meaningful reserve units, and even if they had, they would most probably still be outnumbered. That would of course change if the Russians started an all-out invasion of Ukraine, but it is quite possible they are not ready to risk a complete meltdown of their relationships with the West just to save their proxies.

Aditionally, attacking during winter also gives the advantage of frozen rivers and lakes, which makes tactical manoeuvring easier. Infantry can also move faster during winter than during summer if they ski.

but of course perpetuating the conflict in this manner without any effort at reconciliation will not sit well with the ukrainian public and even the european community. I think the rebels have the best chance if they focus on delaying ukrainian advance as much as possible, that means they should not be looking for any decisive battles.

Perpetuating the war in Eastern Ukraine is not advantageous to the separatists. When the Ukrainians manage to close the borders (that really is just a question of time if the Russians do not invade Ukraine, as the separatists are severely outnumbered), the separatists will be completely cut off from the rest of the world and as they have no ability of producing weapons or ammunition, they will eventually run out of them. If the Ukrainian army is able to confine the rebels to cities after taking the borders, the separatists will also be cut out of their food producing areas, after which they will be quickly starved.

Taking into consideration the current circumstances, it would seem to me that there are two sensible paths for the separatists. If they really are federalists like some claim, then a conditional surrender to the Ukrainian central government after the upcomming parliamentary elections would be sensible (amongst the conditions would be a new federal constitution and an official status of Standard or Southern Russian in Eastern Ukraine). If they intend to make Eastern Ukraine a part of Russia, they should and probably will fabricate a provocation which would lead to a full-blown Russian invasion of Ukraine, which would probably also end the existence of an independent Ukrainian state.

 

[SampanViking]

The BBC has corrected its earlier story about Zakharchenco's Military reserve.
They accept that it was a mistranslation about a column of 150 vehicles coming from Russia.
He did say that the 1200 militia men have been trained in Russia but that the equipment was captured from the Ukrainians

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Addressing a meeting, Alexander Zakharchenko said the fighters had trained "four months on the territory of the Russian Federation".

The rebels, he said, had reserves of 150 combat vehicles, including tanks.

An earlier mistranslation of his words suggested Mr Zakharchenko had said the vehicles were on their way from Russia.

It is clear that he is specifically talking about the armour captured in the collapse of the Southern Cauldron. In fact many of his words in terms of numbers of tanks, artillery, other vehicles and the shortage of skilled operators are exactly the same as those put out by the DPR over the last week following the collapse.

 

[pla101prc]

I do not think this claim is very valid in the Ukrainian conflict. The Ukrainian army is used to the Ukrainian winter (It would be rather strange if they were not.) while the German army of 1941 could not function properly during the Russian winter due to their own much milder winters, whereas for the Finnish army winter fighting was business as usual.

Another factor behind the German defeat at the gates of Moscow was the different rail gauge between Germany and the USSR (1435 mm compared to 1524 mm) which caused a severe shortage of rolling stock for the Germans in the East (Finland had the same gauge as the USSR so our forces had no such problem), which is certainly not the case for the Ukrainian units operating inside their own country.

A third advantage for the Soviets in the Battle of Moscow was their utilisation of fresh units drawn from Siberia which ensured them a numerical superiority, which certainly is not an option for the separatists as they have no meaningful reserve units, and even if they had, they would most probably still be outnumbered. That would of course change if the Russians started an all-out invasion of Ukraine, but it is quite possible they are not ready to risk a complete meltdown of their relationships with the West just to save their proxies.

Aditionally, attacking during winter also gives the advantage of frozen rivers and lakes, which makes tactical manoeuvring easier. Infantry can also move faster during winter than during summer if they ski.



Perpetuating the war in Eastern Ukraine is not advantageous to the separatists. When the Ukrainians manage to close the borders (that really is just a question of time if the Russians do not invade Ukraine, as the separatists are severely outnumbered), the separatists will be completely cut off from the rest of the world and as they have no ability of producing weapons or ammunition, they will eventually run out of them. If the Ukrainian army is able to confine the rebels to cities after taking the borders, the separatists will also be cut out of their food producing areas, after which they will be quickly starved.

Taking into consideration the current circumstances, it would seem to me that there are two sensible paths for the separatists. If they really are federalists like some claim, then a conditional surrender to the Ukrainian central government after the upcomming parliamentary elections would be sensible (amongst the conditions would be a new federal constitution and an official status of Standard or Southern Russian in Eastern Ukraine). If they intend to make Eastern Ukraine a part of Russia, they should and probably will fabricate a provocation which would lead to a full-blown Russian invasion of Ukraine, which would probably also end the existence of an independent Ukrainian state.

couple of things here. just because an army existed in a region does not mean that it is prepared for the adversities associated with this region. without proper training the troops will suffer as much as anyone else. as for the question of logistics, it has been a soft belly for the ukr army with or without winter, but worse weather will definitely exacerbate the problem. if they are unable to gain a foothold in the urban areas then they will have a hard time sustaining the current operational tempo when winter comes. and if they cannot take donetsk during the summer and fall(they very well might be able to, in which case the discussion of winter would be of little relevance), then they will only have more problems in the winter time.

as for matters of borders. i will say that in modern military lingo the borders can be referred to as Centre of Gravity (COG) for the rebels, meaning that this is where they derive their ability to organize, replenish and fight. it parallels aleppo's purpose to the syrian rebels. total border control is undoubtedly a prerequisite for victory as defined by poroshenko's administration. however it is difficult to see ukrainian forces achieving this objective now after their previous attempt ended in catastrophe. ukrainian commanders understood the importance of taking the border as much as anyone and they have pursued that goal to disastrous effect, and still left 100km of unprotected border for the rebels to utilize. it is also difficult to see the ukr army cutting off the rebels completely without precipitating a russian intervention. meanwhile the citizens of ukraine is fast running out of appetite for further sacrifice in support an unfruitful war.

i can confidently judge that the only way out for poroshenko at this point is to finish off the rebels as soon as possible, and do it in such way as to avoid provoking the russians. this war was only allowed to go on until now because capturing slavyansk led ukraine to believe that victory was at hand. however at this point it does seem like they are running out of steam.

 

[thunderchief]

17 Ukrainian soldiers crossed border of RF and surrendered .

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But that is not big news . Big news is their apparent claim that 3 brigades of Ukrainian army suffered heavy loses . I cannot verify authenticity of video below, but it looks genuine to me .

[video=youtube;o77lO7KmftI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o77lO7KmftI[/video]

 

[plawolf]

In reality, Ukrainian forces suffered heavy loses in past few days, so they probably slowed down or completely halted their offensive.

You really should give a graphic image warning for videos like that.

 

[pla101prc]

17 Ukrainian soldiers crossed border of RF and surrendered .

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But that is not big news . Big news is their apparent claim that 3 brigades of Ukrainian army suffered heavy loses . I cannot verify authenticity of video below, but it looks genuine to me .

[video=youtube;o77lO7KmftI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o77lO7KmftI[/video]

the three brigades are old news, they were partially destroyed and the remainder either crossed into russia or broke out. either way those brigades will remain out of action for a very long time. if you go to the last page however there is a map which portrays an new cauldron which was allegedly formed a few days ago. a ukr brigade made a foray eastward on the 9th and was promptly stopped. on the 12th the DPR forces severed its lines of communication and then repelled an attempt by ukr forces to link up on the following day. if this is true, then it is a manifestation of incompetence of ukr forces' leadership. they need to stop sending these units in without flank protection.

 

[delft]

I just noticed The Washington Post noticed

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If you rob people of their work and income they might leave ( many Ukrainians might move to Russia ) or they might take up arms as people in Donetsk and Lugansk did and as the US experienced when they stupidly laid off most of the military and of the civil servants in Iraq. Besides the economy of Ukraine is going down the drain already.

 

[Janiz]

If you rob people of their work and income they might leave ( many Ukrainians might move to Russia ) or they might take up arms as people in Donetsk and Lugansk did and as the US experienced when they stupidly laid off most of the military and of the civil servants in Iraq. Besides the economy of Ukraine is going down the drain already.

You write that like they wanted a war. Sure, they can move to Russia, the country which destroyed their homes. That will be better for them... Like Russian economy experienced an exponential growth lately...

 

[SampanViking]

You really should give a graphic image warning for videos like that.

My apologise to you wolfie and everyone else. I missed that earlier but have now removed all copies of the link.

I know it is frustrating that very informative video cannot be posted because they also contain extremely graphic images of fallen soldiers. This is though a family orientated forum and so no stuff of nightmares please.

I am sure a dozen copies of this particular video will be posted in the Ukraine and general Ghoul sections of Liveleak.

 

[pla101prc]

You write that like they wanted a war. Sure, they can move to Russia, the country which destroyed their homes. That will be better for them... Like Russian economy experienced an exponential growth lately...

actually i have talked to a few people from donetsk many of them did opt for russia over ukraine. "the country which destroyed their homes" is not reflective of the public perception in that region. it is more like a dictum propagated by western media to dumb things down a lil for their readers.