Could the Nationalists have won the Civil War?

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kunmingren

Junior Member
The answer is Yes, there are a lot of political problem under the KMT, but the reason they lost on the battle field is that Chiang was not a good military commander. He frequently went against sound military judgement of his chief of staff an did things his own way, he also made that enemy with many warlord who end up helping the communist. If Chiang had not lost on the battlefield, then his government could have survived a lot longer.
 
SteelBird

SteelBird

Colonel
The KMT was stronger in both material and experience compared to the Communist, but they finally lost the war. Parts of the reason is that the KMT lost the people's heart. If you watch some historical movies, many Communist's officials were from Huangpu military school. So, the war between KMT and Communist was a war between the teacher and his student and the final result was the teacher had lost the war. Interesting, the sino-vietnam war during 1979 was also considered as a teacher-student's war, but this time the teacher won :eek:ff . Now, watching another movie 亮劍 (Showing Sword - not historical one), a KMT officer talk to a Communist officer after loosing the war: "the commands were made by a genius but was carried-out by an idiot". So, I quite agree with you that Jiang Jieshi was quite a bad commander and led to the lost of the whole war.

In the 1990s, when the Mainland and Taiwan's relationship was on honey moon period, some Taiwanese officer first visited Mainland China, Song Meiling asked her to put a flower wreath on her father's grave but never mention about her elder sister, Song Qingling (reported by Taiwanese TV). Jiang Jieshi died in 1975 in his age of 88 years while Song continued to live another 28 years and died in 2003 in her age of 106 years old. Consider how she led her life in that 28 years without Jiang? I think that it's only regret and sorrow. But that gave me a thinking that Jiang and Song only consider China as their private property! Well, just think, if the Nationalist would have won the war, what would today's China be?
 
H

hongkongpride

New Member
Steelbird,

You are wrong about Chiang and Soong Meiling treating China as their own private property. Although Chiang was a bit of an 'eggheaded' idiot, a name reflected in his nickname of 'Cash My Check' in Washington during the 1940's partly due to corruption, I am sure he and his wife wanted the best for China just as the original Communists wanted the best for China. Chiang modernised China in a far more positive way than the current CCP, establishing the University of Nanjing, Academia Sinica and the Bank of China-laying the groundwork for the rise of China and growth of gradual democracy. All the CCP ever did was introduce the Great Leap Backwards and Cultural Revolution that destroyed Chinese culture and retarded China's growth-and with NO democracy at all, in violation of Dr. Sun Yat Sen's Three Principles of the People which the hypocrites of the CCP claim to follow. Deng Xiaopeng's economic reforms in the 1980's was a small improvement compared to what Chiang advanced in the 1930's before the Japanese invasion of China stopped this program of modernization. Unfortunately, under the increasingly corrupt KMT during the 1940's, the ROC lost the war to the Communists at the time, who had the people's hearts. I do not think it would be fair to assign all the blame to Chiang because he was just an incompetent leader who could not control his corrupt subordinates and on corrupt advice from his advisors, sacked several of the best generals that could have saved the ROC from total collapse such as Li Tsung Jen . The results of this can be seen today in the environmental dystopia that China has evolved into such as the loss of the Three Gorges, the rampant corruption among government officials and the CCP (contrast this to the ROC on Taiwan handling of corrupt officials, see "Two Chens face Two Systems http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/07122006/20/china-taiwan-chens-face-systems.html" and the great social inequality among the farmers that had made the CCP's rise to power possible. If the
Nationalists had managed to rally and hold on to the Sichuan and Canton areas of China where their last strongholds were instead of cowardly fleeing to Taiwan, they would have implemented the modernisation of Dr. Sun, creating a free and strong society like the USA or UK but without the social ills, based on the Three Principles of the People. If you want proof, look at the way the humbled Chiang modernised Taiwan in the 60's to 80's, turning it into an economic powerhouse and prosperous country without the social and environmental ills that plague China today. The crash course in ROC democracy that pits the still corrupt KMT (who have betrayed national security by blocking the weapons procurement bill more than 70 times!) against the equally corrupt DPP) is a story for another day as it is very interesting. However today it is the CCP of China that has turned into the corrupted KMT of the 1940's and have even made 'reunifying Taiwan into the motherland' a "national priority"-even though doing so will cost Chinese lives on both sides of the strait, destroy the environment of Taiwan and China and cause a possible nuclear war with the US-for what?

For starters, the CCP leadership might want to revise their history and realise that it is the will of the people that determine victory and that you cannot force people to 'reunify', only persuade them-a fact forgotten since 1949. If China does not offer any good reasons for reunifying, only verbally and psychologically threatening Taiwan with thug-like language like "drowning separatist forces in Taipei in a sea of fire" and aiming 800 missiles at your fellow Chinese is a sort of funny if it wasn't so deadly serious way to go about 'persuading' them to return to the motherland.

So the CCP should be smart and reform the political system-and make the ultimate sacrifice to show that they put China's benefit above their own love of power like the KMT of the late 80's did-by holding gradual elections from the mayor's level up to president STARTING NOW over a period of 30 years-avoiding the social hooliganism that uncontrolled democracy can bring (refer to Taiwan's Legislative Yuan antics for more uncontolled democracy) and do something about the environment that is slowly killing China.

If not, the current CCP might soon find themselves in the position of the KMT of the 1940's, this time with angry peasants and revolutionaries at their back-and no Taiwan to flee to and NO TIME to Cash a Check before the mob tears down the door.
 
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R

Ryz05

Junior Member
hongkongpride said:
Steelbird,

You are wrong about Chiang and Soong Meiling treating China as their own private property. Although Chiang was a bit of an 'eggheaded' idiot, a name reflected in his nickname of 'Cash My Check' in Washington during the 1940's partly due to corruption, I am sure he and his wife wanted the best for China just as the original Communists wanted the best for China. Chiang modernised China in a far more positive way than the current CCP, establishing the University of Nanjing, Academia Sinica and the Bank of China-laying the groundwork for the rise of China and growth of gradual democracy. All the CCP ever did was introduce the Great Leap Backwards and Cultural Revolution that destroyed Chinese culture and retarded China's growth-and with NO democracy at all, in violation of Dr. Sun Yat Sen's Three Principles of the People which the hypocrites of the CCP claim to follow. Deng Xiaopeng's economic reforms in the 1980's was a small improvement compared to what Chiang advanced in the 1930's before the Japanese invasion of China stopped this program of modernization. Unfortunately, under the increasingly corrupt KMT during the 1940's, the ROC lost the war to the Communists at the time, who had the people's hearts. I do not think it would be fair to assign all the blame to Chiang because he was just an incompetent leader who could not control his corrupt subordinates and on corrupt advice from his advisors, sacked several of the best generals that could have saved the ROC from total collapse such as Li Tsung Jen . The results of this can be seen today in the environmental dystopia that China has evolved into such as the loss of the Three Gorges, the rampant corruption among government officials and the CCP (contrast this to the ROC on Taiwan handling of corrupt officials, see "Two Chens face Two Systems http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/07122006/20/china-taiwan-chens-face-systems.html" and the great social inequality among the farmers that had made the CCP's rise to power possible. If the
Nationalists had managed to rally and hold on to the Sichuan and Canton areas of China where their last strongholds were instead of cowardly fleeing to Taiwan, they would have implemented the modernisation of Dr. Sun, creating a free and strong society like the USA or UK but without the social ills, based on the Three Principles of the People. If you want proof, look at the way the humbled Chiang modernised Taiwan in the 60's to 80's, turning it into an economic powerhouse and prosperous country without the social and environmental ills that plague China today. The crash course in ROC democracy that pits the still corrupt KMT (who have betrayed national security by blocking the weapons procurement bill more than 70 times!) against the equally corrupt DPP) is a story for another day as it is very interesting. However today it is the CCP of China that has turned into the corrupted KMT of the 1940's and have even made 'reunifying Taiwan into the motherland' a "national priority"-even though doing so will cost Chinese lives on both sides of the strait, destroy the environment of Taiwan and China and cause a possible nuclear war with the US-for what?

For starters, the CCP leadership might want to revise their history and realise that it is the will of the people that determine victory and that you cannot force people to 'reunify', only persuade them-a fact forgotten since 1949. If China does not offer any good reasons for reunifying, only verbally and psychologically threatening Taiwan with thug-like language like "drowning separatist forces in Taipei in a sea of fire" and aiming 800 missiles at your fellow Chinese is a sort of funny if it wasn't so deadly serious way to go about 'persuading' them to return to the motherland.

So the CCP should be smart and reform the political system-and make the ultimate sacrifice to show that they put China's benefit above their own love of power like the KMT of the late 80's did-by holding gradual elections from the mayor's level up to president STARTING NOW over a period of 30 years-avoiding the social hooliganism that uncontrolled democracy can bring (refer to Taiwan's Legislative Yuan antics for more uncontolled democracy) and do something about the environment that is slowly killing China.

If not, the current CCP might soon find themselves in the position of the KMT of the 1940's, this time with angry peasants and revolutionaries at their back-and no Taiwan to flee to and NO TIME to Cash a Check before the mob tears down the door.
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Political reform is not the surest way to ensure its survival. The CCP can save itself by fighting against corruption, and the best way would be the establishment of a free press. However, it seems they are not interested in letting the population know the ugliness, which can cause a mob-mentality (common in Chinese history) and mass social disruptions. Instead, they circulate investigative reports within the Party, and punish officals silently without revealing too much about what they've done to the public.
 
Gollevainen

Gollevainen

Colonel
VIP Professional
Registered Member
No politics! Expecially in offtopic manners. Back to the topic or I close the thread!:nono: :mad: :mad: :nono:
 
G

goldenpanda

Banned Idiot
Unfortunately I think politics has a lot to do with how the military situation could have reversed in such an impossible way.

I have a simple view about this. The Nanjing government were a cultural elite in China. They were intelligent, educated, and many of them were noble and patriotic individuals. It also meant they could communicate with maybe 5% of China's people at the time, the rest being illiterate peasantry and laborers. Against Japanese they could call upon a simple idea -- defeat cruel invaders -- to lead the nation. After Japanese they had no message for the common people.

The common people saw in communism a way to attain status in society which kuomintang told them was not possible--they were to fall in line and follow the instructions of their "betters". Chiang had identified democracy as unworkable in China from his earlier republican experience. On the other hand, the communist prescription of "class struggle" was very germane to Chinese society at that time. The common people, who had suffered and paid in blood against Japanese, did not see any fruits of victory. Communists said simply, you are now the masters, you are as good as anyone else, take the wealth you see before you, it is yours. Take the love we give to you, and give love to others.

Chinese simply did not resist this message.
 
O

ofone

New Member
hah

Nationalists could not win in any way.

The key point of Maonism is how to handle the people's power to insulate the enemy.

Indirect outside power can change the balance between two countrys.but can not change the balance of two partys in one country.
 
H

hongkongpride

New Member
Well, in a way ofone is correct in that the Nationalists would have lost due to hyperinflation, loss of morale and desertion-losing up to 1/5 of their total pre- war (1945) troops to desertion in Manchuria-but they had a very good chance of holding onto their last stronghold in Sichuan as the peasants of China's 'breadbasket' were not as disaffected or opposed to the KMT as in the other provinces such as Henan.

Geographically, the Sichuan plateau was isolated from the rest of China for centuries, accessible only via three main "channels" or gorges, rocky and near impossible to pass through without a skilled guide. Even the, treacherous currents and humid, rainy weather would make life hell for attacking troops. The kingdom of Shu during the Three Kingdoms period was only conquered after the General Deng Ai led a force from behind Jiang Wei's Shu army (guided by a traitor) unopposed through a gorge and captured Chengdu, Shu's capital, forcing the Emperor Liu Shan to surrender (Romance of the Three Kindgoms).

Fast foward to 1949, where in an almost identical situation the Three Kingdoms, Deng Xiaopeng led a PLA force from behind through a gorge to capture Chengdu, the last ROC held city on the mainland, Chiang snr. and Chiang jnr. abandoning their loyal troops, flew out of the city for Taiwan onboard their private aircraft 'Mayling'. I am quite sure that if the modern day fool Chiang had not panicked and ordered all ROC forces to flee to Taiwan, then the ROC in Sichuan could have held out indefinitely to the present day.

If Chiang had ordered his three elite German trained divisions, the 88th, 101st and 76th divisions of the ROCA or National Revolutionary Army as it was known back then, to secure the Three gorges leading to Chengdu instead of retreating to Taiwan then Deng Xiaopeng's pathetic largely untrained PLA force would have been mown down and totally destroyed by the superb German tactics and MG-42 machine guns of these divisions in the gorges -instead of the half trained panicky men that made up the warlord forces defending Sichuan and who were responsible for the nationalists losing much of Manchuria and China.

With these three divisions Chiang and the ROC could have held out forever in Sichuan until possibly now-that would have put a brake to Communist excesses such as the Great Leap Backwards and Cultural Revolution.
 
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goldenpanda

Banned Idiot
hongkongpride said:
I am quite sure that if the modern day fool Chiang had not panicked and ordered all ROC forces to flee to Taiwan, then the ROC in Sichuan could have held out indefinitely to the present day.
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I cannot emphasize enough what a ridiculous view this is.

If Chiang had ordered his three elite German trained divisions, the 88th, 101st and 76th divisions of the ROCA or National Revolutionary Army as it was known back then, to secure the Three gorges leading to Chengdu instead of retreating to Taiwan then Deng Xiaopeng's pathetic largely untrained PLA force would have been mown down and totally destroyed by the superb German tactics and MG-42 machine guns of these divisions in the gorges -instead of the half trained panicky men that made up the warlord forces defending Sichuan and who were responsible for the nationalists losing much of Manchuria and China.
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The problem was never KMT lacked equipment or troops. The problem was they *wouldn't fight*, not very hard anyway. Your "elite German divisions" melted in a few days against Japanese. How long do you think they'd have held up against Chinese coming to liberate them, when the rest of the country has already gone 大势已去?

Also your "pathetic largely untrained PLA" forced USA to evacuate 100k troops by sea and beat them back 700 kilometers, just one year later.

With helpful minds like yours no wonder KMT lost.
 
A

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
One of the biggest problems that the ROC government faced, was lack of stability even prior to the Japanese invasion. What the people of China needed in post-Qing era was a long period of stability, to transition from the old world to the new. But they were never given the time because of certain people's greed for power.

Had the original agreement with Qing Monarch's abdication been kept -- that is, the ROC pays Puyi a couple million silver dollars annually to maintain a quasi constitutional monarchy in name/appearance only, while real power rests with the republican government, as the country slowly transition toward reforms and the modern world, I think it might have worked. But Yuan Shikai had other ideas.

Chiang wasn't able to consolidate his power until 1928, and the Japanese invaded soon afterwards. Had the country been stable from 1912-1930, I think China would've developed quite nicely, and the communists might have simply became one of many political factions. But things didn't go that way and the chaos gave Mao the opportunity to rise. I mean if everything had been peaceful and the economy was growing, I don't think the people would've been so upset at the KMT to join in communist armed revolt?

The chaotic conditions that give rise to Mao, I think also made it very difficult for Chiang to win the "hearts and minds" of the people, which ultimately lead to his downfall. He had a second chance after WW2, when his popularity was at its highest for "winning" the Sino-Japanese war. The economy was in such a sorry shape that he really shouldn't have re-started the civil war. I think Chiang could have "won" by humbling himself and agree to more power-sharing and negotiate peace with Mao, but he was way too selfish to do that.
 
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