Could the Nationalists have won the Civil War?

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Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Well, there are two ways I think that it could go. It depends on when the Nationalists win. If they won in the 30s, then renmin would probably be right. China would be heavily influenced by the Soviets and still be divided up by foreign powers. If they had won in the 40s, it would be different. China would have recieved much more American help, and would have been able to cash in on the economic boom that made Taiwan, Japan and South Korea rich. So China would be much farther along in its development, probably democratic, and would be facing some of the same, mundane problems that those countries are facing today. If only...
 

MaxTesla

New Member
No

During operation august storm when the Soviet Union exploded out the Japense 1.1 million strong army in less then 2 weeks out of china The Soviet forces gave ALL japanese equipment to MAO

And also the SU gave the chinese tactics so there was no way for the nationals to win

also if MAO hade not won then there would not be 1 china but 50 chinas, MAO united china
 

Kilo636

Banned Idiot
No

During operation august storm when the Soviet Union exploded out the Japense 1.1 million strong army in less then 2 weeks out of china The Soviet forces gave ALL japanese equipment to MAO

And also the SU gave the chinese tactics so there was no way for the nationals to win

also if MAO hade not won then there would not be 1 china but 50 chinas, MAO united china


American General George Marshall arrived in China and was part of negotiations over a ceasefire between the KMT and the CCP, the terms of which would build a coalition government that would include all of the contending political/military groups in China. Neither the Communists (represented by Zhou Enlai) nor Chiang Kai-shek's representatives were willing to compromise on certain fundamental issues or relinquish the territories they had seized in the wake of the Japanese surrender.


In the front row, Mao Zedong is on the right and Chiang Kai-shek is in the middle.The Nationalists demilitarized 1.5 million troops ostensibly to support the Marshall Mission, which turned out to be a fatal mistake for Chiang Kai-shek and Kuomintang, because in reality, Chiang and his associates used this excuse to reduce the power and influence of warlords who allied with Kuomintang. Nearly none of the 1.5 million troops discharged belonged to Chiang's own force, and all of them belonged to that of warlords, including those who collaborated with the Japanese invaders during the Second Sino-Japanese War and pledged their allegiance to Chiang Kai-shek and Kuomintang after World War II. This move alienated many within the Kuomintang. As for the ordinary soldiers who were discharged, their prospects changed for the worse as nothing effective was done to help them integrate into civilian life. Many protests and riots by the discharged soldiers broke out, particularly in Chongqing by discharged former soliders of the Sichuan warlords. Faced with such desperate situations, these former soldiers turned against Chiang and the Nationalist government, and while some turned to banditry, most of them decided to join the communists. The communists welcomed these new recruits because their resentment towards the Kuomintang made them easily susceptible to communist indoctrination. The largest Nationalist defection to the communists occurred in Manchuria, where over half a million discharged Kuomintang soldiers (mostly former Japanese puppet governmental troops) joined the communist force, which previously had never exceeded 50,000, a more than 1000% boost for Lin Biao's forces.

In addition to this, the Nationalist demilitarization also provided communists with much needed weaponry. When Chiang Kai-shek attempted to solve the problem of warlords that plagued China by reducing their troops after World War II via demilitarization, the action backfired badly for him and Kuomintang in Manchuria when it was combined with other critical mistakes the Nationalists made. The Japanese strategy had been to give up Japan rather than give up Manchuria because the latter was so vital, and thus, they had stockpiled large amount of weaponry (enough to sustain more than 700,000 troops for several years) in hidden remote and hard-to-reach areas all over Manchuria. Although the Soviets captured a large quantity of Japanese weaponry, the majority of the Japanese stock survived. The Kuomintang was infatuated with obtaining as many urban centers as possible; therefore, the rural and hard-to-reach areas were ignored. Militarily, the Kuomintang did not have any incentives to recover and destroy this large stockpile of weaponry because the American weaponry used by Nationalist forces was superior. More importantly, since operating modern weaponry needed considerable knowledge and training, the Kuomintang believed that even if these weapons were to reach Communist hands, it would be impossible for the Communists to use them because most of their troops were illiterate. Therefore, the Kuomintang regime generally ignored the information on these Japanese secret depots because they deemed it not worth the effort to recover or destroy the weapons. Furthermore, since the information was provided by those former warlords' troops turned Japanese puppet regime troops who rejoined Nationalist force after World War II, and they were to be discharged, Kuomintang considered their actions no other than attempting to show their importance and to ask for financial rewards, and thus failed to take proper actions to prevent these weapons falling into the wrong hands. Chiang and Kuomintang were correct on the matter originally but when Nationalist demilitarization began, things turned out to be completely opposite. Because those discharged warlords' troops were former Japanese puppet regime forces that rejoined Kuomintang after World War II and had the experience and training needed to handle the weaponry, communists in Manchuria had hit a gold mine when these troops joined them en masse. Not only these valuable troops were able to teach the rest of communists who had no knowledge on how to operate these weapons, but more importantly, these new troops knew exactly where the Japanese secret depots were and contrary to their old Kuomintang master, the communists were extremely appreciative to the information and weaponry obtained, because what was less advanced to Kuomintang was of great value to the poorly equipped communist troops.

Contrary to the Nationalist propaganda that the Soviets had given huge quantity of weapons to the communists in Manchuria, the actual amount was extremely low: the total Soviet weaponry and Japanese weaponry captured by Soviet given to the communists was merely enough to equip 30 infantry regiments and 2 mountain gun battalion, equipping a mere 20,000 communist troops out of a total of 400,000 (as of the end of 1947), and the Soviet aids to communists completely stopped by the end of 1947. The communists originally expected the Soviets to play a much larger role and Lin Biao personally wrote a letter to Joseph Stalin on June 25, 1947 asking for Japanese weaponry to be turned over to the communists, and he even asked for captured German weaponry. Stalin, however, did not even bother to respond. On December 28, 1947, Lin Biao wrote another letter directly to Stalin, asking for more weaponry, including: 200,000 rifles, 15,000 light machine guns, 7,000 heavy machine guns, 700 heavy mortars, 1,000 light mortars, 100 anti-aircraft artilleries, 200 mountain guns, and communication gears for 20 divisions. Again, Lin Biao also appealed to Stalin in the letter that if such demand could not be met with captured Japanese weaponry, then captured German weaponry could fill the gap. Stalin, just like he had done previously, did not respond. However, the nearly nonexistent Soviet help proved not to be a problem for the communists, because in the mean time, the huge communist need was filled by an unexpected source, its adversary, Kuomintang. Thanks to the fatal mistake Kuomintang made in its demilitarization, communists were able to pinpoint nearly every Japanese secret depot with the help of former Kuomintang troops in its rank, and the total amount of Japanese weaponry recovered was enough to sustain the communists for 2 years before relying on captured American weaponry from Kuomintang in the later stage of the war. For example, a single secret depot typically contained as much as 150,000 artillery rounds. By February 1947, hundreds of artillery pieces were recovered by the communists included: 49 howitzers, 300 heavy mortars, 137 anti-aircraft artilleries, 141 anti-tank guns, 108 mountain guns, 97 cannons, and many other smaller artillery pieces. More importantly, due to the rapid expansion of its ranks filled by former Kuomintang troops discharged from the demilitarization, the sudden increase of troops of the communists meant that the original Communist peasantry army that was largely illiterate had suddenly became an army with 90% of its force being well trained, technically capable and combat hardened veterans that was more than a match for the Kuomintang force, who now had only three-quarters of the amount of Communist weaponry, with a handful of tanks and aircraft. However, even at this stage, Kuomintang troops still greatly underestimated their communist adversary because the American weaponry used by Kuomintang troops was superior to the Japanese weaponry used by the communist troops. Thus, the huge qualitative advantage of the Kuomintang would, they believed, be more than enough to make up for the numerical superiority of the Communists, a heavy price for which they would have to pay later.

During the Kuomintang demilitarization, the Communists did not sit idly either; it also reduced its troops by a million both in the regular army and in militia to ostensibly support the Marshall Mission. However, such reduction was the result of Mao Zedong's class struggle theory, and in fact, most were discharged due to political persecution and "rectification" campaigns. As a result, the Communist force reduction was much harsher than that of Kuomintang because it was a political purge. Most of those targeted in the Communist force reduction were from the wealthy, land owning and middle classes, and despite their loyalty to the Communists, they were considered unreliable due to their background and thus were purged. These unfortunate souls did not have the luxury like those discharged Nationalist soldiers who at least were able to live on the streets. Those discharged by the Communists were considered "class enemies" and were targeted by their former comrades, and were often executed, jailed, or forced to commit suicide. As a result, most Communist members from well-to-do family backgrounds chose to desert, with the majority defecting to the Kuomintang and becoming ardent anti-Communists. The defection rate was particularly high in those Communist-controlled regions where the struggles of persecutions were brutal, and in Mao's own admission, "in Shandong alone, over 300,000 (former Communists) were driven to the enemy (Kuomintang) side." In addition to joining the regular Nationalist force, Communist defectors also formed their own militias to help the Kuomintang to exterminate the Communists in the civil war that soon followed. The Communists also used the cease-fire period ushered by Marshall to arm and train huge numbers of peasants who had joined the People's Liberation Army during the war with Japan. The political persecution and purges during this era was an extension of Mao's Rectification Movement and was kept secret by the Chinese government, and it was not until the 1990s that the bloody details were allowed to surface in the domestic Chinese media.

The truce fell apart in June 1946 when full scale war broke out on June 26, and although negotiations continued, Marshall was recalled in January 1947, the same time when the last communist envoys in Kuomintang controlled regions were recalled back to Yan'an.
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I would think Nationalist put too much stake in Manchuria Battle and lost it big. 2 out of 5 elite units he had were wiped out in that major battle!

Also Soviet actually didi not supply much weapon to PLA,most of PLA weapon were those leftover Jap weapons in China....
 
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adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
The post-WW2 ROC government had serious economic problems with hyper-inflation. It's said that in those days, you could sit down for a bowl of noodles, and by the time you're done the price posted on the wall have gone up.

The ROC government had a huge defense budget and couldn't afford to pay for it. Could they have won the civil war? Maybe, if the US was willing to foot the bill. But the US government at the time was pretty stretched too and would've preferred if the two sides could've settled their differences peacefully, or keep China divided between the two factions.

Now, if we want to get into "alternate reality" scenarios, had Japan not attacked and invaded in 1930s, I think the KMT-lead government might have wiped Mao off the map.
 
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MaxTesla

New Member
The communist got some equipment from the USA during 1944 and 1945 when they showed some american observers how well and efficient they were conducting partisan activities against the Japanese

But the most important part of the Victory was that they won the hearts and minds of the local pupulation

And on a side note, do not use wikipedia, because most of it is bad or written from a a point of view that often hides some part of information and over exploits other part of information.

And all the numbers are just pulled out from their behinds, everything is so twisted and so spinned that nothing you read or see is correct except the names
 
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Neutral Zone

Junior Member
Certainly the Nationalists could have defeated Mao militarily, but I don't think that would have ended the war. Mao was able to exploit the greivences of the people to win them to his side. The Nationalists represented the "established interests" and they would have been less likely to address the greivences. Had for example, Mao been ambushed and executed during the Long March, the causes of the civil war wouldn't have died with him and they would have kept smouldering away in the background. A new revolutionary movement, with Mao as an ideological figurehead and inspiration, would probably have emerged in the 1950's. This of course would have been at the height of the Cold War and the Soviets would have backed it and the Americans the Nationalists. Under this scenario, China's fate could have been to have become a gigantic Korea or Vietnam. :(
 

Sakura

Just Hatched
Registered Member
I do not belive that the KMT could have won. There was hyperinflation due to the Japanese Invasion and Chinese Civil War. The KMT officials were infamously corrupt and the Nationalist Army had virtually no support from the Chinese population. The CCP, on the other hand, had wide support from the peasants of China because they presented a solution to their dire straits. The Nationalist Army was also unexperienced against the guerilla tactics that the Communists used. The nationalists could have probably won if Japan had not invaded China.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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American General George Marshall arrived in China and was part of negotiations over a ceasefire between the KMT and the CCP, the terms of which would build a coalition government that would include all of the contending political/military groups in China. Neither the Communists (represented by Zhou Enlai) nor Chiang Kai-shek's representatives were willing to compromise on certain fundamental issues or relinquish the territories they had seized in the wake of the Japanese surrender.


In the front row, Mao Zedong is on the right and Chiang Kai-shek is in the middle.The Nationalists demilitarized 1.5 million troops ostensibly to support the Marshall Mission, which turned out to be a fatal mistake for Chiang Kai-shek and Kuomintang, because in reality, Chiang and his associates used this excuse to reduce the power and influence of warlords who allied with Kuomintang. Nearly none of the 1.5 million troops discharged belonged to Chiang's own force, and all of them belonged to that of warlords, including those who collaborated with the Japanese invaders during the Second Sino-Japanese War and pledged their allegiance to Chiang Kai-shek and Kuomintang after World War II. This move alienated many within the Kuomintang. As for the ordinary soldiers who were discharged, their prospects changed for the worse as nothing effective was done to help them integrate into civilian life. Many protests and riots by the discharged soldiers broke out, particularly in Chongqing by discharged former soliders of the Sichuan warlords. Faced with such desperate situations, these former soldiers turned against Chiang and the Nationalist government, and while some turned to banditry, most of them decided to join the communists. The communists welcomed these new recruits because their resentment towards the Kuomintang made them easily susceptible to communist indoctrination. The largest Nationalist defection to the communists occurred in Manchuria, where over half a million discharged Kuomintang soldiers (mostly former Japanese puppet governmental troops) joined the communist force, which previously had never exceeded 50,000, a more than 1000% boost for Lin Biao's forces.

In addition to this, the Nationalist demilitarization also provided communists with much needed weaponry. When Chiang Kai-shek attempted to solve the problem of warlords that plagued China by reducing their troops after World War II via demilitarization, the action backfired badly for him and Kuomintang in Manchuria when it was combined with other critical mistakes the Nationalists made. The Japanese strategy had been to give up Japan rather than give up Manchuria because the latter was so vital, and thus, they had stockpiled large amount of weaponry (enough to sustain more than 700,000 troops for several years) in hidden remote and hard-to-reach areas all over Manchuria. Although the Soviets captured a large quantity of Japanese weaponry, the majority of the Japanese stock survived. The Kuomintang was infatuated with obtaining as many urban centers as possible; therefore, the rural and hard-to-reach areas were ignored. Militarily, the Kuomintang did not have any incentives to recover and destroy this large stockpile of weaponry because the American weaponry used by Nationalist forces was superior. More importantly, since operating modern weaponry needed considerable knowledge and training, the Kuomintang believed that even if these weapons were to reach Communist hands, it would be impossible for the Communists to use them because most of their troops were illiterate. Therefore, the Kuomintang regime generally ignored the information on these Japanese secret depots because they deemed it not worth the effort to recover or destroy the weapons. Furthermore, since the information was provided by those former warlords' troops turned Japanese puppet regime troops who rejoined Nationalist force after World War II, and they were to be discharged, Kuomintang considered their actions no other than attempting to show their importance and to ask for financial rewards, and thus failed to take proper actions to prevent these weapons falling into the wrong hands. Chiang and Kuomintang were correct on the matter originally but when Nationalist demilitarization began, things turned out to be completely opposite. Because those discharged warlords' troops were former Japanese puppet regime forces that rejoined Kuomintang after World War II and had the experience and training needed to handle the weaponry, communists in Manchuria had hit a gold mine when these troops joined them en masse. Not only these valuable troops were able to teach the rest of communists who had no knowledge on how to operate these weapons, but more importantly, these new troops knew exactly where the Japanese secret depots were and contrary to their old Kuomintang master, the communists were extremely appreciative to the information and weaponry obtained, because what was less advanced to Kuomintang was of great value to the poorly equipped communist troops.

Contrary to the Nationalist propaganda that the Soviets had given huge quantity of weapons to the communists in Manchuria, the actual amount was extremely low: the total Soviet weaponry and Japanese weaponry captured by Soviet given to the communists was merely enough to equip 30 infantry regiments and 2 mountain gun battalion, equipping a mere 20,000 communist troops out of a total of 400,000 (as of the end of 1947), and the Soviet aids to communists completely stopped by the end of 1947. The communists originally expected the Soviets to play a much larger role and Lin Biao personally wrote a letter to Joseph Stalin on June 25, 1947 asking for Japanese weaponry to be turned over to the communists, and he even asked for captured German weaponry. Stalin, however, did not even bother to respond. On December 28, 1947, Lin Biao wrote another letter directly to Stalin, asking for more weaponry, including: 200,000 rifles, 15,000 light machine guns, 7,000 heavy machine guns, 700 heavy mortars, 1,000 light mortars, 100 anti-aircraft artilleries, 200 mountain guns, and communication gears for 20 divisions. Again, Lin Biao also appealed to Stalin in the letter that if such demand could not be met with captured Japanese weaponry, then captured German weaponry could fill the gap. Stalin, just like he had done previously, did not respond. However, the nearly nonexistent Soviet help proved not to be a problem for the communists, because in the mean time, the huge communist need was filled by an unexpected source, its adversary, Kuomintang. Thanks to the fatal mistake Kuomintang made in its demilitarization, communists were able to pinpoint nearly every Japanese secret depot with the help of former Kuomintang troops in its rank, and the total amount of Japanese weaponry recovered was enough to sustain the communists for 2 years before relying on captured American weaponry from Kuomintang in the later stage of the war. For example, a single secret depot typically contained as much as 150,000 artillery rounds. By February 1947, hundreds of artillery pieces were recovered by the communists included: 49 howitzers, 300 heavy mortars, 137 anti-aircraft artilleries, 141 anti-tank guns, 108 mountain guns, 97 cannons, and many other smaller artillery pieces. More importantly, due to the rapid expansion of its ranks filled by former Kuomintang troops discharged from the demilitarization, the sudden increase of troops of the communists meant that the original Communist peasantry army that was largely illiterate had suddenly became an army with 90% of its force being well trained, technically capable and combat hardened veterans that was more than a match for the Kuomintang force, who now had only three-quarters of the amount of Communist weaponry, with a handful of tanks and aircraft. However, even at this stage, Kuomintang troops still greatly underestimated their communist adversary because the American weaponry used by Kuomintang troops was superior to the Japanese weaponry used by the communist troops. Thus, the huge qualitative advantage of the Kuomintang would, they believed, be more than enough to make up for the numerical superiority of the Communists, a heavy price for which they would have to pay later.

During the Kuomintang demilitarization, the Communists did not sit idly either; it also reduced its troops by a million both in the regular army and in militia to ostensibly support the Marshall Mission. However, such reduction was the result of Mao Zedong's class struggle theory, and in fact, most were discharged due to political persecution and "rectification" campaigns. As a result, the Communist force reduction was much harsher than that of Kuomintang because it was a political purge. Most of those targeted in the Communist force reduction were from the wealthy, land owning and middle classes, and despite their loyalty to the Communists, they were considered unreliable due to their background and thus were purged. These unfortunate souls did not have the luxury like those discharged Nationalist soldiers who at least were able to live on the streets. Those discharged by the Communists were considered "class enemies" and were targeted by their former comrades, and were often executed, jailed, or forced to commit suicide. As a result, most Communist members from well-to-do family backgrounds chose to desert, with the majority defecting to the Kuomintang and becoming ardent anti-Communists. The defection rate was particularly high in those Communist-controlled regions where the struggles of persecutions were brutal, and in Mao's own admission, "in Shandong alone, over 300,000 (former Communists) were driven to the enemy (Kuomintang) side." In addition to joining the regular Nationalist force, Communist defectors also formed their own militias to help the Kuomintang to exterminate the Communists in the civil war that soon followed. The Communists also used the cease-fire period ushered by Marshall to arm and train huge numbers of peasants who had joined the People's Liberation Army during the war with Japan. The political persecution and purges during this era was an extension of Mao's Rectification Movement and was kept secret by the Chinese government, and it was not until the 1990s that the bloody details were allowed to surface in the domestic Chinese media.

The truce fell apart in June 1946 when full scale war broke out on June 26, and although negotiations continued, Marshall was recalled in January 1947, the same time when the last communist envoys in Kuomintang controlled regions were recalled back to Yan'an.
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I would think Nationalist put too much stake in Manchuria Battle and lost it big. 2 out of 5 elite units he had were wiped out in that major battle!

Also Soviet actually didi not supply much weapon to PLA,most of PLA weapon were those leftover Jap weapons in China....

well, you got all your sources from wikipedia, so you know, it's not exactly a good source by any stretch of the information. But as far as I know, PLA was pretty much hardened soldier due to the circumstances they faced pre and during WWII. It wasn't because of those demilitarized troops that they became more hardened, but rather the other way around. If those troops were so hardened and motivated to fight, it would not make a lot of sense for them to fight for the Japanese in WWII, would it?
 

adeptitus

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The KMT had a good opportunity in 1930's to destroy the communists, but between CKS's incompetence and the Sino-Japanese war, that opportunity was lost.

It can be said that Japan was a major factor in regime changes in China over past few hundred years since the Ming. It contributed to the downfall of Ming, Qing, and ROC. Had Japan not invaded ROC, I doubt Mao would've won.
 

dannytoro

New Member
....In a historical context, American support did erode away from Chaing Ke as his corruption was uncovered. This was further compounded by an american unwillingness to create any form or haterd for the affable Mao, who hardly seemed comparable to despisable figures like Stalin and Lenin. In short Americans really desired to maintain good relations with China, but where left with no good vehicule to do so...On the other hand, Americans fail to understand the Chinese desire to intergrate Taiwan, especialy given the two dissimalar economic systems. Now however, those concerns diminish as China increaingly embraces free market policies....
 
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