Could the Nationalists have won the Civil War?

After WWII, the Nationalists under Chiang Kai-Sheik were in strong position to destroy the Communists, under Mao. The Communists were largely confined to Manchuria, and the Nationalists had massive amounts of American support, as well as more troops who were more experienced than the Communists, as the Nationalists fought much more of WWII than the Communists. Soviet support was half hearted, as they did not want to be the supporters of the losing side. The Republic of China attacked Manchuria in 1946, and was on the path to victory. George C. Marshall, Army Chief of Staff during WWII and architect of America's grand strategy for victory in that war, was secratary of state for the Truman Administration. He was sent to China and applied pressure on Chiang to halt the offensive. His mission was to coordinate a negotiated peace between the Communists and the Nationalists .Obviously, he failed. In the intervening time, the Communists regrouped and the superior military capabilites of their commanders took advantage of Nationalist corruption, incompetence, poor morale and renewed Soviet support. This brought about a reverse in fortunes, and, as we all know, the Nationalists lost the war.

My question is Could the Nationalists have won the war? They had an opportunity, but was it big enough? What would have happened if they did win?

I don't know if there will be much of a disscussion...This thread hasn't really sparked interest.

If Chiang Kai-Shek wasn't so corrupt then maybe. Also I think his tactics were a little iffy. He didn't really understand guerilla war like Mao.

The problem is that it's very hard to answer a, "Could who win what" scenario, because of the many possible factors affecting an outcome. Could the Nationalists win if World War II hadn't broken out? If Mao wasn't so good at winning the hearts and minds of people? If, if, if...

If you're merely asking if it was POSSIBLE for them to win I'd say yeah, it's not a stretch of imagination, what with all things being equal, both sides having similiar weapons and numbers... of course saying something is possible isn't really saying anything. A example of impossible would be, "Could the US Army defeat the Empire? (of Star Wars)".

Now if you're asking if it was possible under "x" circumstances well then it depends on what "x" is.

One big probability that help them loose the civil war is no heart from the citizen. (translate it to chinese and you'll understand) This could be caused by not allying the japanese to fight the communist.

Technically they did ally with each other against the Japanese... taking a break from trying to kill each other probably counts as a truce.

It's just that the effort between the Nationalists and the Communits was so half-assed because of such dislike between the two factions that it wasn't really effective.

The Nationalist as the Recognised Government, held all the cards.

The question surely is why did the Nationalists lose? what was it that swayed popular feeling to go with the communists? Weapons alone will not be decisive, especially in a largely guerilla war. It is the side that enjoys the most popular support that will ultimatly win.

Good point Sampan. That's something every major power has to learn painfully at some point. I'm afraid that China, with its growing power, will learn it too one day, maybe soon.

Anyway, I was just pointing out that the Nationalists did indeed come very close to winning the war, in the situation described above and at many other points, such as the Long March and just before that, when they had the Communists trapped. Indeed, the Nationalists destroyerd most of Mao's army in that period. Other units were trapped in pockets, cut off from the largest body under Mao, and were destroyed. Mao's force also took huge casualties during the March. So there's another point where the war could have very eaisily gone the other way.

What do you think that China today would be like, had the Nationalists won either in 1946 or 1934?

Jian Jie Shi was all about power and victory. He did not care for his people. The guy fought well, you must admit, but he was a sour leader, and the nationalist army had low morale not to mention loss of support from chinese citizens. On the other hand, Mao's army was strong and good to go and had plenty of morale. the thought of fighting till the last breath was in the hearts of all communist soldiers. If the nationalists had won, on my point of veiw, China would be one huge corrupt nation today.