Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[PiSigma]

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The 3k/day suspiciously is in the same magnitude like the test kit manufacturing.

The other method is to do CT(chest xray? ), but that have upper limits well, I think in the range of the test kits (otherwise there is no need for test kits ) .

And not all tested will be infected, so if they can test say 8k / day then the observed new infections will be between 0-8000.
So, 3000 is about the expected confirmed new cases with full busy testers.

That's not what you said in your previous post as a reply to my post on only a couple hundred cases added. Moving the goal post again?

4k kits is much greater than the couple hundred people confirm today. No one said there is a stop to kit production.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

The author(s) of the research paper did not suggest that the "mortality rate could be as high as 11 per cent". It was the reporter who wrote about the research paper, and Mr. Brumby himself (whether intentionally or out of ignorance), who suggested that.

FACTS MATTER :

[1] Statistically, it is not possible to draw any conclusion on mortally rate based on only 99 patients studied in the paper.
[2] The author mealy said that "some of those 99 patients may die".
[3] The 99 patients studied were transferred from other hospitals to Jinyintan Hospital. Jinyintan is one of the key hospital in Wuhan for treating 2019-nCoV patients. So most of these patients studied were likely in serious or critical condition.​

I suggest Mr. Brumby should read article of the link he included in his post with analytical mind and common sense before posting it here.

New research just published suggest that the mortality rate may be higher than generally quoted.

New Lancet paper says coronavirus mortality rate could be as high as 11 per cent

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Extract from the research paper based on 99 patients.
View attachment 57183

View attachment 57184

It should be remembered as the research paper caution that a significant population of that study is still in hospital and their outcome is far from certain.

This applies to any discussions about mortality numbers. For example, Wuhan which is the epicenter of the outbreak has consistently been tracking at a 5.5 % mortality rate and that doesn't include a significant portion of the infected population in hospital and their eventual outcome far from certain.

 

[Brumby]

The number of confirmed cases seems to have plateaued.

That is clearly not true There are a few sites out there providing timely updates on the total number of infection but there is a timing and a time lag in their updates. The important numbers are the ones coming from the Hubei province which is only updated,once a day and there is a time lag in updates by those sites. You will notice that there is a big jump in the numbers but only when the daily number from Hubei province is updated by those sites. I personally go to the source and that is the Hubei government site which provides the update. The infection is not slowing and in fact is doubling every three days. Other cities in the Hubei province are starting to look like Wuhan 10 days ago. The number of people in Hubei that is under medical observation but not confirmed has exceeded 58,000 of which 10,000 of that number were added just a day ago.

Here are the numbers.
.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

That's not what you said in your previous post as a reply to my post on only a couple hundred cases added. Moving the goal post again?

4k kits is much greater than the couple hundred people confirm today. No one said there is a stop to kit production.

Sorry, I concentrated for the 3k number.

But for a natural process to drop from 3k/peacemaker to few hundred in one tick is very unporbable too .

 

[Brumby]

The author(s) of the research paper did not suggest that the "mortality rate could be as high as 11 per cent". It was the reporter who wrote about the research paper, and Mr. Brumby himself (whether intentionally or out of ignorance), who suggested that.

FACTS MATTER :

[1] Statistically, it is not possible to draw any conclusion on mortally rate based on only 99 patients studied in the paper.
[2] The author mealy said that "some of those 99 patients may die".
[3] The 99 patients studied were transferred from other hospitals to Jinyintan Hospital. Jinyintan is one of the key hospital in Wuhan for treating 2019-nCoV patients. So most of these patients studied were likely in serious or critical condition.​

I suggest Mr. Brumby should read article of the link he included in his post with analytical mind and common sense before posting it here.

Which part of the word "may" that you do not understand?

 

[localizer]

That is clearly not true There are a few sites out there providing timely updates on the total number of infection but there is a timing and a time lag in their updates. The important numbers are the ones coming from the Hubei province which is only updated,once a day and there is a time lag in updates by those sites. You will notice that there is a big jump in the numbers but only when the daily number from Hubei province is updated by those sites. I personally go to the source and that is the Hubei government site which provides the update. The infection is not slowing and in fact is doubling every three days. Other cities in the Hubei province are starting to look like Wuhan 10 days ago. The number of people in Hubei that is under medical observation but not confirmed has exceeded 58,000 of which 10,000 of that number were added just a day ago.

Here are the numbers.ted
View attachment 57199 .

View attachment 57200

You still haven't explained R0 to us or showed us your model and now you're onto your next analysis.

 

[KYli]

i live in US for more than 30 years, yes i know how they report, i have seen media put negative news on their own government, lib or right for years and years. so yes its reporting, not everything is sunshine and flower. beside media is private business, they do exaggerate things sometime to get max viewer.

Are you kidding me? Exaggeration doesn't describe how they report China. When it comes to China, many reports are purely fake news, slander, manipulation, racism, prejudice, misrepresentation and lies.

 

[KYli]

look like aussie/US and other country either close border or ban flight from china. i dont recall ppl become this panic during swine flu 2009, which has something around 500,000 death worldwide.
i hope after this is over China come up with better procedure/ways to manage wet market to reduce the chance of this happen again in the future.

That's because the US can get away with anything since it controls the narrative through its control of the western media.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

Which part of the word "may" that you do not understand?

Which part of this thread title that you do not understand ? If it can not be substantiated, one should not post it here.

By the way, just because a reporter said so, it "may" not be true.

 

[s002wjh]

Are you kidding me? Exaggeration doesn't describe how they report China. When it comes to China, many reports are purely fake news, slander, manipulation, racism, prejudice, misrepresentation and lies.

which is fake news? CNN/CBS? i read it every day, if you refer to youtube, or some 3rd rated gossip, there are plenty those around. heck there is even US news say 911 was conspire by Bush. Have you read CNN/CBS or other news bashing/slander of Trump? you stay in US long enough you gonna notice the news media bash Everyone. The current political environment is toxic, democracy and republican are constantly bashing/exaggerate/ news against each other, that include news media as well.