Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[B.I.B.]

SARS didn't fade out but was contained. Spanish Flu was one virus that got faded out. All experts said that they simply don't know. I think our only hope is vaccine.

Perhaps its becoming more contagious but less virulent as the number of deaths seems to be coming down in the U,S,?

 

[ansy1968]

Perhaps its becoming more contagious but less virulent as the number of deaths seems to be coming down in the U,S,?

HI B.I.B

here is the article cross post from PDF (PAKISTAN DEFENSE FORUM)

Coronavirus 'now a wild cat not tiger' and might peter out without vaccine
Professor Matteo Bassetti, an infectious disease expert at the Policlinico San Martino hospital in Italy, says Covid-19 is becoming less deadly as it spreads and could die out before a vaccine is ready

A doctor has claimed that coronavirus has weakened from being like a "tiger" to a "wild cat" and may even peter out without a vaccine.

The bug is becoming less deadly as it spreads, according to Professor Matteo Bassetti, head of an infectious diseases clinic at Italy's Policlinico San Martino hospital.

He told the Sunday Telegraph that he has recently seen elderly patients recovering who would have died earlier on in the pandemic.

"Even patients aged 80 or 90 are now sitting up in bed and breathing without help. The same patients would have died in two or three days before," Professor Bassetti said.

"It was like an aggressive tiger in March and April but now it’s like a wild cat."

The doctor says that at the height of Italy's Covid-19 pandemic in March and early April, patients frequently presented with an illness which was "very difficult to manage".

The sickest people often needed oxygen and ventilation, and some went on to develop pneumonia.

However, he says that in the past four weeks the picture has "completely changed".

This could be due to the virus mutating into a weaker form as it sweeps across the world.

Another theory is that social distancing measures and use of PPE such as face masks mean that people are being exposed to lower viral loads, and therefore becoming less ill.

This could even mean that the bug dies out before a vaccine is available, according to Prof Bassetti.

"Probably it could go away completely without a vaccine. We have fewer and fewer people infected and it could end up with the virus dying out," he added.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said work is under way to "stockpile" Covid-19 jabs so they're available straight away if a vaccine is approved.

On Thursday, he told the Downing Street briefing that drug company AstraZeneca has already started manufacturing a jab being produced by scientists at Oxford University.

Mr Hancock said: "They're starting manufacture now, even ahead of approval, so we can build up a stockpile and be ready should it be clinically approved."

A separate vaccine being produced at Imperial College in London is also at the first stage of clinical trials, he said.

People over the age of 50, frontline workers and people with heart and kidney conditions will be prioritised if and when a vaccine is available.

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Professor Matteo Bassetti, an infectious disease expert at the Policlinico San Martino hospital in Italy, says Covid-19 is becoming less deadly as it spreads and could die out before a vaccine is ready

 

[plawolf]

Perhaps its becoming more contagious but less virulent as the number of deaths seems to be coming down in the U,S,?

Covid19 is a difficult beast to deal with because there is a significant time lag until symptoms and deaths start to register.

In addition, I have massive reservations about the numbers coming out of the US. The millionaires-club American healthcare system has always presented a massive pay wall to people without medical insurance, that hasn’t changed one bit with COVID19, since zero effort has been made to make testing and treatment free for COVID19.

On top of that, there have been numerous actual credible reports of states and even the federal government manipulating or even outright fabricating COVID19 figures.

 

[vesicles]

hi vesicles

Is it possible that cv19 will fade out just like SARS? I read that it is getting weaker and many infected over 80 is able to survive.

Well, the latest data look very confusing. Some data suggest the strain is getting weaker, while others suggest the strain is getting stronger. I still don't see a consensus yet. With that being said, our ICUs are getting filled fast, meaning that we are getting more seriously ill patients from COVID-19. Statistics suggest that 30-40% of those administered into ICUs won't be able to come out alive. No matter what the percentage is, when we get exponentially more infected, we are getting numerically more seriously ill patients and more death. So no matter how weak the strain is, the more infected people we have, the more death we will get. The key is still to prevent infection.

 

[ansy1968]

Well, the latest data look very confusing. Some data suggest the strain is getting weaker, while others suggest the strain is getting stronger. I still don't see a consensus yet. With that being said, our ICUs are getting filled fast, meaning that we are getting more seriously ill patients from COVID-19. Statistics suggest that 30-40% of those administered into ICUs won't be able to come out alive. No matter what the percentage is, when we get exponentially more infected, we are getting numerically more seriously ill patients and more death. So no matter how weak the strain is, the more infected people we have, the more death we will get. The key is still to prevent infection.

HI vesicles

THANKS buddy, stay safe and godbless.

Is there a possibility that a concentrated infected people congregated together may increase the lethality of the virus.

 

[Intrepid]

Is there a possibility that a concentrated infected people congregated together may increase the lethality of the virus.

This has not been proven, but scientists believe it is possible.

 

[vesicles]

Is there a possibility that a concentrated infected people congregated together may increase the lethality of the virus.

Infectivity is different than lethality. When you have more infected people congregating together, you will increase the infectivity. That's why you need social distancing to thin out the crowd and decrease the infectivity. However, lethality is something else. It depends more on how well the infected people's own immune systems respond to the invading contagion. With more people getting infected, you will surely get more death, while not necessarily affecting the lethality (a percentage).

 

[Intrepid]

Scientists express the idea that if a person is infected several times in a short period of time or simply gets a high viral load overall, the course of the disease is correspondingly more severe.

Example: a celebration for several hours, a seminar or a meeting for a longer time or a service with intensive singing in a poorly ventilated room.

 

[B.I.B.]

Infectivity is different than lethality. When you have more infected people congregating together, you will increase the infectivity. That's why you need social distancing to thin out the crowd and decrease the infectivity. However, lethality is something else. It depends more on how well the infected people's own immune systems respond to the invading contagion. With more people getting infected, you will surely get more death, while not necessarily affecting the lethality (a percentage).

Just wondering why Covid is not fading away in the higher summer temperatures as expected and it must be getting pretty warm in Texas?

 

[Skye_ZTZ_113]

Just wondering why Covid is not fading away in the higher summer temperatures as expected and it must be getting pretty warm in Texas?

It was hoped rather than expected that it would. Viruses are immune to hope unfortunately. There was no evidence that the virus would be stymied by summer weather alone and countries like Ecuador acted as a grim case study that the virus was more durable than many had hoped. Yes, high enough temperatures could destroy the virus, other posters have mentioned metal surfaces exceeding 50C in hot weather, but that is only a small part of the environment. In any case, with the ubiquitous nature of air-conditioning in hot regions, the virus will have no shortage of indoor concentrations of people sheltering from the heat. The more developed, the more vulnerable imho.