This is not the "2nd wave", it is just 1st wave keep going and going... It is parallel with loosen up of lock-downs. What China did was absolutely right: Just have a 2 month real lock-down and get over with it. This prolonged half ass lock-downs are making things worse. Until a vaccine shows up, we are screwed. When all of this is done, I think 200K life loss is possible for US. What I am really scared is fall/early winter. Then we may have a real 2nd wave. The lack of leadership from this genius admin is frustrating.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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This is not the "2nd wave", it is just 1st wave keep going and going... It is parallel with loosen up of lock-downs. What China did was absolutely right: Just have a 2 month real lock-down and get over with it. This prolonged half ass lock-downs are making things worse. Until a vaccine shows up, we are screwed. When all of this is done, I think 200K life loss is possible for US. What I am really scared is fall/early winter. Then we may have a real 2nd wave. The lack of leadership from this genius admin is frustrating.
Given the likely level of infections in the USA over the summer, I think the USA will almost certainly have a serious 2nd wave of infections in the Autumn as the weather turns colder.
vesicles
Colonel
Well, to continue with your definition, we will be simply staying in a gigantic and prolonged first wave all the way until the end of the year. I honestly don't see how this wave can end in the same way as we typically see in East Asian countries, where we see extended amount of time with zero cases. I honestly don't see how we can get out of this... With everyone doing things half-heartedly and lack of discipline, we will be simply be like walk on a beach, with waves after waves after waves, nonstop. What I am worried about is a rogue wave, with several small waves synchronizing into a gigantic wave.
However, if you look at individual states and locally, the big states like CA, NY and TX are entering the second wave as some state officials are claiming now. Here in the US, you cannot judge the situation using the same standard used by Asian countries. In those countries, you define the end of a wave by having a period of time with very few or even zero cases. In the US, as long as you see a decline of the curve, you yell "we are out of a wave!"
vesicles
Colonel
I honestly don't see this move as surprising. Almost all clinical data point to low efficacy and serious side effects. If it weren't for Trump, I don't see how it would get the emergency approval in the first place.
vesicles
Colonel
It looks to me that the federal government might be looking at completely giving up on the prevention part, and move to herd immunity... And as a result, everyone else in the world might be forced to do the same. If the entire US decides to give up and just open everything up and tells everyone to start hugging each other and kissing each other and start partying, can other countries afford to keep Americans out of their countries altogether? Maybe not. Then everyone will have to give up and rely on herd immunity.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
Why not? Everyone is shutting out Americans right now, even Canada. US and maybe South America will get here immunity while the rest of the world put in controls and wait for a vaccine. But even herd immunity is US might not happen if vaccine comes out soon.
The way this will end for the West is after everyone got a shot of vaccine. From what I read, this will likely happen some time in second half of 2021. Nothing else will save us. There is no discipline, no leadership from the top and no coordination between the states. Until the vaccine happens, stay safe. Opening up will inevitably bring in higher infections. I am not eating out in restaurants, going to barbershops or any public gathering. I am minimizing my trips to the grocery story and wear masks and gloves when I need to.
China recently said that they have vaccine safe enough and will provide to people going on a business trip abroad on a volunteer basis. If herd immunity is happening, they can hold out til the end of the year when they have better data and start their mass production of the best vaccine candidate. That will be much better than herd immunity alone. We should do the same here.
vesicles
Colonel
Another thing that I am seriously worried about. The drug resistant bacteria.
With the wide spread use of antibiotics over the years, we are beginning to see the emergence of the drug resistant bacteria. Virtually every hospital in the world, especially those in the Western nations, harbor huge amount of these super bugs. The only way that they have not spread into the general public is the fact that, well, we are dirty. Our lack of cleanliness keeps a large amount of normal bacteria on us, which effectively outcompete the minor drug-resistant bacteria and kill them off.
Now, we are making a huge effort to keep ourselves clean all the time. All the hand washing, mask wearing and wiping down and disinfecting all surfaces all the time, etc. We are eliminating our only effective defense against the drug-resistant bugs: the normal bacteria. Once we manage to eliminate most of the normal bugs, we are literally helping the drug-resistant bugs survive... All it takes is one of the hospital workers brings one of these little bugs home, and there is no stopping them... That would end mankind...
It's so important that we should end this pandemic as soon as possible. We need to go back to our old dirty, nasty way of living... Our lives depend on the fact that we are dirty... In fact, compared with one of those super bugs, the Coronavirus is a love bug. So if we can't stop it soon, we might as well just live with it and go back to the old ways...
With the wide spread use of antibiotics over the years, we are beginning to see the emergence of the drug resistant bacteria. Virtually every hospital in the world, especially those in the Western nations, harbor huge amount of these super bugs. The only way that they have not spread into the general public is the fact that, well, we are dirty. Our lack of cleanliness keeps a large amount of normal bacteria on us, which effectively outcompete the minor drug-resistant bacteria and kill them off.
Now, we are making a huge effort to keep ourselves clean all the time. All the hand washing, mask wearing and wiping down and disinfecting all surfaces all the time, etc. We are eliminating our only effective defense against the drug-resistant bugs: the normal bacteria. Once we manage to eliminate most of the normal bugs, we are literally helping the drug-resistant bugs survive... All it takes is one of the hospital workers brings one of these little bugs home, and there is no stopping them... That would end mankind...
It's so important that we should end this pandemic as soon as possible. We need to go back to our old dirty, nasty way of living... Our lives depend on the fact that we are dirty... In fact, compared with one of those super bugs, the Coronavirus is a love bug. So if we can't stop it soon, we might as well just live with it and go back to the old ways...
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