Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Jura said:
LOL it'd appear China became rich already Yesterday at 10:25 PM

I didn't drink my early morning coffee yet, so: if it's one million cars costing 100 Grand each, China would spend 100b this way early
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I go back to your original point, which was the COVID-19 would keep China in the middle-income trap.

China is the only middle-income country with an exceptionally high levels of R&D spending (2.2% of GDP).
That only happens in high-income countries.

If China was to get stuck in the middle-income trap, then R&D spending of 2.2% should drop in HALF.
Then R&D spending would only be 1.1% of GDP, which is within the group of the EVERY other low-income or middle-income country.

COVID-19 and the US-China technology war is only causing Chinese R&D spending to increase even faster than it was before.

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On a related note, the effects of COVID-19 are expected to hit the US and Europe harder than China.

Before, China was expected to grow 4% faster than the USA in 2020 for example.
Now the growth gap is expected to be even larger at 5-8%, as per various articles.

COVID-19 is accelerating the shift to a China-centric world
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Apr 19, 2020
Jura said:
at first they had been careful Jan 30, 2020

but later верхушка I mean rich people returned from skiing in the Alps and apparently it was too much even for the KGB to quarantine them

now they're getting ready:
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somewhere in
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EDIT
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on top of gazeta.ru now is
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(more than 10k new confirmed cases in the last 24 hours)

yesterday I read somewhere (think also at gazeta.ru) about 2% of Moscow got infected according to an estimate which I could find but don't bother


time to recall the New York trip April 2, 2020
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Russians also sent something similar to Italy EDIT Mar 23, 2020
Jura said:
7893695_original.jpg


captioned something like (don't nitpick) aircraft of Russian Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Forces preparing to leave for Italy

source, story (an automatic translation should work), more pictures:
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Click to expand...
 
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A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Jura said:
this:
is funny part, China GDP will decline, say, 5% in 2020, and the US GDP will decline 10% so that the "growth" gap is 5%, LOL
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The growth estimates are currently:
China: 0% to 1%
USA: -5% to -8%

That is because the US is a predominantly a service economy which comprises a lot of non-essential economic activity.
In comparison, China is a manufacturing economy and the people are poorer, so they have continue spending more of their income on essentials anyway.

A lot of decision-makers in the US have trouble grasping that the US will be hit harder than China.
And they are making irrational decisions based on emotions.

Plus if the US starts a new trade or technology war, the figures become even worse for the US.
In many respects, the US simply has no alternative to China.

And so far, it does look like China will be able to keep COVID-19 outbreaks controlled locally.
That comes from stopping foreign travel, testing aggressively, individual surveillance and contact tracing, and being willing to quarantine widely so it doesn't spread.

From what I can see, the key is identifying cases/clusters early, then effective contact tracing, which results in a widespread quarantine of at most thousands of people who might be infected, although they probably are not.

But that stops cases spreading and overwhelming the contact tracing system.

It is what other places in Asia have done, and which has proven effective.
 
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