Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

Intrepid

Major
How can you explain why Germany has a low mortality rate and perform extensive testing without over-burdening the health care system?
Many reasons I guess, a few examples:
  • a well-equipped central national epidemic institute
  • decentralized test infrastructure that was expanded very early on
  • Continued payment of wages in the event of illness, nobody has to hide their symptoms and go to work
  • well-developed health system to which a large number of residents have access
  • just in time lockdown, which was followed by the population
  • a low level of public debt so that the economy can be strongly supported and can remain locked down longer
  • and finally: a head of state who is herself scientifically educated
 

B.I.B.

Captain
One short month and 50,000 people are dead from COVID-19 in the US, and at least 14,000 people are infected in Ontario, with over 300 cases in our town.

My family and I have been staying home for five weeks now. We've made a total of two trips to a public place in all that time: once to a Chinese grocery store early into the quarantine, and a second trip to Costco a week ago. Aside from those two trips, we've been buying grocery online. Our main concern was milk. With seven people in the house, we go through a dozen eggs every two days and 12L of milk every week. Online grocery shopping restricts the amount of milk we can buy, and pickup slots need to be booked 1-2 weeks in advance. We had to make the Costco trip because that was our only option to get a sufficient milk stockpile. Fortunately we have a big freezer in the basement so we've been freezing all the milk. Currently, I calculate we have enough milk to last us a month, and if we keep getting milk from online grocery, we could potentially stretch that stockpile much longer.

With milk secured, fresh fruits and vegetables have become our main concern. Just yesterday, our Walmart grocery order was cancelled without explanation an hour before we were supposed to pick it up. Fortunately, we were able to order more from Chinese sellers in WeChat groups, but it was pretty stressful for a while. Who'd have thought grocery would become such a source of anxiety?

These days, I'm waiting for the weather to warm up, not because I think it'll help reduce COVID-19 infections, but because I want to start working on my garden. This year, it seems there's extra incentive to growing your own food!

Why don't you get a few packets of milk powder. It is virtually the same as fresh milk with the same goodness and keeps for years?
 

KIENCHIN

Junior Member
Registered Member
I
One major difference that the paper did not mention - President Xi did not suggest all Chinese citizens to take Po Chai Pills for coronavirus prevention.

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I remember those pills, every time a family member has a stomach related illness we are told to take Poh Chai Yuen
 

B.I.B.

Captain
Why don't you get a few packets of milk powder. It is virtually the same as fresh milk with the same goodness and keeps for years?

As a afterthought I hope you emptied a little bit from the container as it can swell and explode.
Freezing milk can change the texture and taste of the milk,but not everybody can taste the difference.
 
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I took a closer look at the numbers (LOL of course preparing for pub talk, as pubs are expected to be reopened in May), used
  • an important suggestion by @AndrewS to take the numbers since the beginning of strong mitigation efforts, and
  • the same function I used for China (I linked the story I think yesterday, in short it worked with a caveat LOL)
and before I show the graph, I add two things:
  1. the situation was tense here around the end of March, a total lockdown was threatened if the number of cases would quickly go to 10k (and "was threatened" means "would be enforced")
  2. I'm going to check on Sunday, May 10
CR2.jpg
 

Intrepid

Major
... just in time lockdown, which was followed by the population ...
The lockdown has been lifted in some areas. But few people go shopping for things that are not part of their daily needs.

There can be two reasons for this: first, they have to hold their money together because they are currently earning less. Second, they have their own personal risk management. And that looks different from government and corporate risk management.


------


The story of the disinfectant injected into the blood or ultra-bright UV light brought into the body indicates the helplessness of the USA. It is therefore no wonder that the American population will be the world's first guinea pig for serious solutions.

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Many reasons I guess, a few examples:
  • a well-equipped central national epidemic institute
  • decentralized test infrastructure that was expanded very early on
  • Continued payment of wages in the event of illness, nobody has to hide their symptoms and go to work
  • well-developed health system to which a large number of residents have access
  • just in time lockdown, which was followed by the population
  • a low level of public debt so that the economy can be strongly supported and can remain locked down longer
  • and finally: a head of state who is herself scientifically educated

  • well-developed health system to which a large number of residents have access
And I guess the health system was better prepared and able to handle the sudden surge in hospitalization due to the epidemic without collapsing. I.e. Enough extra hospital bed, health care workers and ventilators, etc.

Unfortunately, US was totally unprepared for a long time because the health system is broken. Too much emphasis on maximizing profit and minimizing cost by insurance companies and hospitals. THis result in minimum number of resources available to deal with sudden surge in demand as we see now.
 
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