It is still too early to be talking about the mortality rate. You need to wait until most of the patients are healed or dead before you can make the conclusion. There are still over 1000 corona virus patients in critical conditions right now.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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It is still too early to be talking about the mortality rate. You need to wait until most of the patients are healed or dead before you can make the conclusion. There are still over 1000 corona virus patients in critical conditions right now.
Roughly 20,000 estimated to be infected in total with around 10,000 of those (half) are more or less medically confirmed infected. If these official numbers are accurate, in reality there should be over 20,000 infected and if the 1000 or so critical conditions are assumed to result in deaths, that makes the worst case* theoretical mortality rate to be at least 5%, about half that of SARS. This is indeed worrying and reflective of the on the ground measures taken by the CCP. If it were indeed just a rough flu that has around quadruple the mortality of the usual flu, then it makes little sense to willingly damage economic growth further than what a double dose of heavy flu season would normally result in.
So far none of the infected cases outside China have resulted in deaths. The numbers alleged count close to 100 now of recorded cases outside China. Give it a few more weeks to see. I think this would be a far more accurate guesstimate of mortality rate than playing around with the ranges given by official figures for within China simply because China itself cannot determine how many are infected in reality since most people who have symptoms will just isolate and stay home until better or approach hospitals if worsening or critical.
So far none of the infected cases outside China have resulted in deaths. The numbers alleged count close to 100 now of recorded cases outside China. Give it a few more weeks to see. I think this would be a far more accurate guesstimate of mortality rate than playing around with the ranges given by official figures for within China simply because China itself cannot determine how many are infected in reality since most people who have symptoms will just isolate and stay home until better or approach hospitals if worsening or critical.
On the topic of racism I think it's also important some of us remember a few obvious points. There are plenty of overly sensitive people around who will call the slightest provocation racist. Sometimes other people are just simplifying things out of convenience. Not everyone who calls this China coronvirus or Wuhan virus is doing it out of malice even if many actually do have those intentions. So let's not judge because the following point is more important.
This event has not "converted" more China-haters. They were always there, just with fewer reasons to be as vocal as they are today. The racists were always present and these sorts of events, whatever they may be, only exposes their presence because they feel obliged to bandwagon and speak up more confidently with their ignorance now. The fair minded individuals and the ones who are not quite as inclined have always been more rational and they understand how the haters and racists have incorrect or unfair points.
These events only make the genuine racism, ignorance, and intolerance more obvious to the reasonable and empathetic types. Would you rather win the support of reasonable, empathetic, and intelligent people or would you rather bother about some "war of superficial reputation" with the dimwits, ignorants, and hate-filled people who are that way inclined whether or not some mildly bothersome virus originated in China? They won't care that caucasians have had their fair history of zoonotic viral pandemics and so on. We already are aware of the presence of these sentiments and China hating.
This event has not "converted" more China-haters. They were always there, just with fewer reasons to be as vocal as they are today. The racists were always present and these sorts of events, whatever they may be, only exposes their presence because they feel obliged to bandwagon and speak up more confidently with their ignorance now. The fair minded individuals and the ones who are not quite as inclined have always been more rational and they understand how the haters and racists have incorrect or unfair points.
These events only make the genuine racism, ignorance, and intolerance more obvious to the reasonable and empathetic types. Would you rather win the support of reasonable, empathetic, and intelligent people or would you rather bother about some "war of superficial reputation" with the dimwits, ignorants, and hate-filled people who are that way inclined whether or not some mildly bothersome virus originated in China? They won't care that caucasians have had their fair history of zoonotic viral pandemics and so on. We already are aware of the presence of these sentiments and China hating.
Empty shelves at the onset or during a disaster is common throughout the world. You can see the same news pictures in the US when a hurricane is going to make landfall. Credit to the Wuhan residences that no looting has occurred, which has becoming quite common nowadays in the US and elsewhere after a disaster strikes.
It takes one disaster in the US before people are shooting, rioting, and looting. It's probably due in part to prevalence of guns, many disadvantaged people, more dramatic class divide and near equal levels of wealth divide (compared to China). Then there's also more racial tensions there along with the usual social divides that exist in very "diverse" societies. Can't have diversity without true empathy, compassion, and intelligence. It'll be chaos and violence every time all the time. Combine all this with lax laws and tame punishments for crimes in the USA compared to China and most of the world. I guess their justice system is certainly more compassionate but it also means people don't have quite the same deterrence around.
vesicles
Colonel
The proper way to do statistics is to combine all the data throughout the world and calculate.
You cannot calculate the mortality rate in each country separately and then compare. The data pools in other countries are simply too small. These numbers cannot be used alone for statistics. I’m not sure if someone has done any power analysis, but in an epidemic, 5-10 people are too few to do any meaningful statistics.
Nothing special about Wuhan. It’s just that it’s the epicenter now and it has most of the infected. And proper statistics applies there.
If the government is conducting these statistical analysis and responding to their results commensurately, then it would appear that there is indeed something to be concerned about with this new coronavirus.
We can combine the entire international infected people and see how their cases develop. This is certainly going to be as close to an actual reflection of its true mortality rate than the wildly inconsistent numbers being thrown out by media, which would suggest the M.R. is anywhere between 0.01% to 5%.
solarz
Brigadier
The province of Hubei accounts for only 60% of the infections but 96% of the deaths.
