Could it also be because the epiccenter is Wuhan? People dont die the moment they get the virus, so there is a two week lag time. Maybe in a week or two the death rate for outside of Hubei will also rise? If they simply divide the total death with total infected that would give a lower death rate than actual since its not taking account the time span post infection that preceeeds death
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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solarz
Brigadier
Yes, that's certainly possible, but it has been 10 days since the lockdown. Within the same period we saw deaths spike in Wuhan.
TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
People don’t drop dead from this kind of thing. There is a period of incubation It seems like This is in that period asymptotic. Meaning there are almost no signs of infection the progressively the symptoms kick in. Because you also have Cold and Flu season on things get more problematic. As even when symptoms kick in they are flu like. So you have to sort the Wheat form the chaff so to speak. Older individuals and the very young or weak can be killed from this just as well as a hard case of the flu. So is patient A sick from a cold, the Flu or Corona Wuhan? The Asymptotic period is it seems still a period of possible spread. So an infected individual can spread this thing without knowing it or appearing sick.
Before the outbreak, China was moving toward a mild recovery. Despite US trade war, GDP growth amounted to 6.1 percent in 2019. Given progressive deceleration, which is normal after intensive industrialization, China was expected to grow by 5.8 to 6.2 percent in 2020. After the outbreak, three scenarios prevail. In the "SARS-like impact scenario," a sharp quarterly effect – down to or below 5 percent - would be followed by a rebound in short order. The broader impact would be relatively low and regional. The impact on annualized growth would be relatively low.
In the "accelerated impact scenario," the adverse impact would be significantly steeper in terms of growth and damage, while a rebound would follow only later. The impact on annualized growth would prove more significant. The broader impact would prove more significant and affect global prospects.
In the "disruptive impact scenario," the adverse impact is harder to assess. Whether natural or synthetic, the new strain occurred in the worst time (before the largest human migration) and the worst place (huge regional hub which was expected to record 7.8% growth in 2020).
It is not the only recent anomaly. Last fall, African swine fever (ASF), which had never before seen in China but now mysteriously appeared with the onset of the US trade war, decimated half of China's pigs, which doubled pork prices and contributed to inflation causing pricy US pork exports to double in China.
The odds for two such consequent anomalies, timing and location are exceedingly low. Yet both did occur – in almost perfect sequence.
For now, central government seeks to use maximum efforts to contain the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Over time, it is likely to boost further national and local surveillance systems, and emergency management in megacities, while protecting China against potential external bio-threats that have destabilization potential.
TerraN_EmpirE
Tyrant King
I was just listening to an interview with the CEO of a tech company talking about his side of this. He has gotten notifications from his suppliers in China that they are postponing shipping till March. And similar notices are no doubt going to Japanese and South Korean tech companies who uses Chinese sub components and assemblies.
Supply chain effects a lot of things. Ships leaving from China with electric parts for markets not leaving port means other cargo that might be picked up along the way seemingly totally unrelated to China like say Italian wool for suits doesn’t get picked up and shipped on to its destination disrupting your tailor’s spring line.
Supply chain effects a lot of things. Ships leaving from China with electric parts for markets not leaving port means other cargo that might be picked up along the way seemingly totally unrelated to China like say Italian wool for suits doesn’t get picked up and shipped on to its destination disrupting your tailor’s spring line.
When China catches a cold , the world sneezs.
I know it's a sweeping generalisation. But the land of OZ is not a paradise to foreigners! I know a number of English emigrants to OZ who all got stories to tell about the OZ.