Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[superdog]

Right... Neil DeGrasse Tyson, an astrophysicist, doesn't understand the concept of "exponential growth"... but you do... (lolz).

The arrogance of panicked people, with no understanding of mathematical analysis, who all suddenly think they're mathematicians, is astonishing. They would rather take a few graphs and random stats from the newsmedia (which has a vested interest in scaring people), and then feed everyone more and more hype and panic. Great strategy.

Instead of talking about a broken healthcare system and issues which actually matter, let's just scare people about the "china virus." Oh and by the way, how about stopping the Shark Finning that is destroying the marine eco system? Or stopping Brazil from cutting down the rain forest? No, that isn't worth panicing about. But let's all throw a collective fit and create the biggest media storm that has ever existed over a bad flu that's going around.... makes sense.

Oh snap



It seems Dr.

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certainly understands and recognizes what an exponential growth is. You are the one who don't.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

The difference (Italy has 2× CFR of China and keep rising) is exactly the reasonable consequence of an overwhlemed medicare system.

Among 3238 deaths in China (w/ HK, Macau and TW), 3132 is in Hubei province. CFR is 4.62% in Hubei, 5 folds of other provinces' 0.89%

To solve your problem in one sentence:
China prevented the medicare system from being overloaded nationalwidely, Italy failed to do so.

That doesn't explain the difference between the reported number of ICU cases in China, and the experienced ICU cases in Italy (corrected by age differences ) .

Of course there are more older person in Italy, due to the better and universal health care system , that can be reason of the different number of death .

 

[supersnoop]

I am not dismissing the virus.
I am dismissing the reactions or over reaction in many cases. The actual spread is less than influenzas in the world. Although more lethal in theory it’s less spread. So by volume less deadly. The areas where it’s hitting hardest are suffering primarily due to preexisting socio-economic issues.

things brought up as supposed lack of leadership are more lack of actual need.
do people need to wear masks in public? Not really but some do. I was just in a Supermarket where 3 women were.
lack of mandatory Quarantine? Mass Quarantine is overkill.
Lack of Test? You only need a test if symptomatic and how many were actually available? Until recently in the last week only a few. Testing everyone would be a wasteand create more problems than solve.

You guys are looking at the issue from 2 different angles.

Statistically speaking, it is true, the mass hysteria is not warranted. Most cases are mild, and the fatality rate for the most part is low (look at most of Asia and China outside Wuhan).

That being said, the other angle is that, you had 1000's die in a matter of weeks in Italy. No matter how you slice it, that is BAD. Seasonal Flu does not kill like that.

For countries not hit that bad, as you mentioned, the issue is probably lack of leadership and clear direction. For the Asian countries, where population density is high and outbreaks are seen as more common, they are used to the kind of heavy-handed response that was utilized. For other countries, it was business as usual, until it's not. As such, people are running around like headless chickens. Yes it CAN be bad, but you CAN mitigate it.

Secondly, the overly politicized nature of the coverage also heightens this sense of fear and uncertainty. There was too much talk (and still is) of China can do this, can the West do that? The politics is irrelevant, it is simply whether you have a system in place to deal with the situation. However, the way the coverage is, either you've created a sense of apathy ("it only happens in communist China") or helplessness ("only in communist China can they act so tough")

The response in China was unprecedented. They shut down all public transportation in the city, and start flying Y-20 (literally unprecedented because it is such a new plane) and Il-76MD in and out non-stop. WHO mission asked "why are there trains still coming in if the city is locked down?" and the response was that they are special trains just for medical staff. However, lost in all of this is the actual meaning/science behind all of this. They essentially created a giant triage zone and mustered up all the medical equipment/staff from other areas (Ventilators, ECMOs) and shipped them into the province. This option was available to them and they took it.

So what are the options in USA? in Canada? in UK? The media doesn't care, feeding the uncertainty means more eyeballs.

 

[localizer]

On 8 February I wrote that when Phase 2 get under way, folks be so desperately trying to survive that they will then not be ranting and cursing China.

I never was so wrong.

The venom and hatred seems to be escalating even more and more and getting more vicious and despicable by the day.

Putting blame and worse on China and Chinese. Never on their own leaders for wasting the 2 months early warnings and totally unprepared for this tsunami because of their hubris that Western Democracy and regards for Free Speech and Human values and Human Dignity all that will be needed.

The more time they waste on blaming Chinese, the more people will die, the greater chance there healthcare system collapse, and we the diaspora will get lynched for our faces

 

[Aniah]

https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/flbkod

These people can't even remember what happened for the last 100 years under colonization from the UK. They can't even remember what their ancestors went through and they forget they are Chinese. This is beyond sad...

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Remember the story of 100 million pledge by US Government to help China cope with Corona virus, Sofar nothing is received yup zip Here is official Chinese foreign ministry spoke person

 

[Hendrik_2000]

The difference (Italy has 2× CFR of China and keep rising) is exactly the reasonable consequence of an overwhlemed medicare system.

Among 3238 deaths in China (w/ HK, Macau and TW), 3132 is in Hubei province. CFR is 4.62% in Hubei, 5 folds of other provinces' 0.89%

To solve your problem in one sentence:
China prevented the medicare system from being overloaded nationalwidely, Italy failed to do so.

I have predicted this in post #2502 and explained the mechanism.

TLDR version to anyone who doesn't bother visit page 251:

The case fatality ratio of Covid19 is highly floatable, decided by amount and intension of medical service one patient could enjoy.

Naturally, more than 1/3 patients turn to severe.
It requires medical help to bring that ratio down to 10%.

Severe patients need intense (ventilator, intubation, ECMO), frequent and long time (3-6 weeks) medical service to stay alive.
Without it, patients die in respiratory failure, with lungs turned grey and totally soaked in goo.

Covid 19 is super contagious.
Natural R0 (average number of one patient can infect) is 6.47 according to researchers from Jiaotong University.

China halted the spread by effective quarantine protocol.
Hubei got a powerful helping hand from Mother China.
China's medicare system does NOT get overwhelmed by a nationalwide outbreak. Hubei's system was brought back on track thanks to external help.

Italy started doing the right thing a bit too late.
Italy could not expect a game-changing help from anywhere.
Italy's medicare system DO get overwhelmed and the situation is still in downward phase.


BTW, next time when you see China achieved something "abnormal", ask how-could-they-reach-it first, before questioning how-real-it-is.

Exactly the first priority in halting the spread of the virus is isolating all those people who is contracted the virus and that mean building hospital Next built those specialized hospital to treat the severe case and China did the impossible job of building those specialized hospital and I am very proud that the Chief designer of that hospital is returnee overseas Chinese from SEA

 

[Mohsin77]

It seems Dr.

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certainly understands and recognizes what an exponential growth is. You are the one who don't.

First of all, you should probably focus on learning basic grammar before moving on to e^x functions ("...the one who don't" lolz.)

Secondly, listen to Tyson's last episode of Startalk (it's titled "COVID-19") where his guest is the Director of the National Center of Disaster Preparedness. From @10 minutes onwards, they talk about how irrational it is to make such a big deal about coronavirus, and how this panic is fueled by media hype.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Remember the story of 100 million pledge by US Government to help China cope with Corona virus, Sofar nothing is received yup zip Here is official Chinese foreign ministry spoke person

Yes, and what's sad is that some members here took the "pledge" as prove that help is on its way. Despite us old timers who had seen these "pledge" played out through our lives varnish into thin air!

If help was given, I'm sure there would be no need to conduct cloak and dagger stuff to get supply from Italy.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

That can only come about if those governments have defaulted on their government bonds.
Basically, you're saying that the US, EU, UK and Japan will completely collapse.
But why would they ever do that, given they can just print money to cover this?

2009 was a deflationary shock, 2020 is an inflationary shock.

Loosing productive capacity, and having helicopter money means inflation.

Due to the virus spread the international trade fallen to pieces, many industry simply ceased to exist overnight, and all of the demand chasing now less and less product.

Result ? Inflation .