Question: Did China under report it deaths from COVID-19?
Hard to believe that 80K+ cases and only 3,248 deaths. While Italy with half the number of cases has already surpassed China's number in deaths.
The difference (Italy has 2× CFR of China and keep rising) is exactly the reasonable consequence of an overwhlemed medicare system.
Among 3238 deaths in China (w/ HK, Macau and TW), 3132 is in Hubei province. CFR is 4.62% in Hubei, 5 folds of other provinces' 0.89%
To solve your problem in one sentence:
China prevented the medicare system from being overloaded nationalwidely, Italy failed to do so.
I have predicted this in
post #2502 and explained the mechanism.
TLDR version to anyone who doesn't bother visit
page 251:
The case fatality ratio of Covid19 is highly floatable, decided by amount and intension of medical service one patient could enjoy.
Naturally, more than 1/3 patients turn to severe.
It requires medical help to bring that ratio down to 10%.
Severe patients need intense (ventilator, intubation, ECMO), frequent and long time (3-6 weeks) medical service to stay alive.
Without it, patients die in respiratory failure, with lungs turned grey and totally soaked in goo.
Covid 19 is super contagious.
Natural R0 (average number of one patient can infect) is 6.47 according to researchers from Jiaotong University.
China halted the spread by effective quarantine protocol.
Hubei got a powerful helping hand from Mother China.
China's medicare system does NOT get overwhelmed by a nationalwide outbreak. Hubei's system was brought back on track thanks to external help.
Italy started doing the right thing a bit too late.
Italy could not expect a game-changing help from anywhere.
Italy's medicare system DO get overwhelmed and the situation is still in downward phase.
BTW, next time when you see China achieved something "abnormal", ask how-could-they-reach-it first, before questioning how-real-it-is.
