Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Gatekeeper]

I was referring to some people back home in China taking issue with helping countries that had basically laughed as the house was burning. Can't say I blame them. Thankfully those voices didn't get traction. I'm sure whatever's sent would be accepted very gratefully - it's incredibly shocking the situation over in the US right now. I'm also glad that China's taking the high road in all this, some media pokes aside.

100% agree. We, as Chinese, or Chinese descend have suffered years of hatred and prejudice, yet we will not dish out the same hatred and prejudice to others. Take the high road!

It is important to remember that, I know at times, we may sound like we are "anti-west". But believe me, we are not, we are just "anti-anti-China" lol.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said us army brought coronavirus to China

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When a high ranking government offical has on record finally said what many of us have long suspected, it can no longer be considered conspiracy theory. is it not?

All it proved is just one thing - that China can now match the US in every aspect, including having idiots in the government.

It is still early in this Covid-19 pandemic. Let science determine the origin of the virus. It will take time, but FACTS (especially scientific facts) do matter.

 

[plawolf]

I was absolutely stunned by the British ‘herd immunity’ tactic.

The most obvious issue I have is the disgracefully irresponsible and cold blooded attitude of the British government.

They wasted months playing useless and counterproductive political games to start with, by deliberately breaking quarantine to fly British nationals home from Wuhan and officially advised all British nationals in China to make their own way back to the UK.

To compound the problem, they performed zero screening nor put in place any additional tracking measures to screen out infected travellers or to enable effective contact tracing for anyone who is diagnosed.

They practically invited the COVID19 into the country while putting the bare minimum effort into trying to contain the outbreak; and then seems to have thrown in the towel on containment efforts with indecent haste. British MSM has also launched into propaganda overdrive with everyone toeing the party line and supporting the government message with almost zero dissent. That in turn is making the British public criminally ill informed about the true dangers of the virus and ridiculously complacent and derelict in their personal responsibilities to protect themselves and the rest of society with basic social distancing activities.

It is actually hard to see how a government who wished to deliberately import the outbreak and maximise infections without triggering a public revolt could have done things much differently.

This herd immunity strategy is basically the ultimate capitulation of all responsibility and is just spin to justify essentially letting the outbreak run rampant and burn itself out after infecting the entire population with everyone either getting killed off by it or developing natural herd immunity against it.

But even that herd immunity silver lining is pure nonsense! Herd immunity only works against fairly stable disease, and is largely meaningless against viruses with fast mutation like COVID19. Just ask yourself how much ‘herd immunity’ have we developed against the common cold or flu?

 

[Rettam Stacf]

Yesterday at 7:04 PM
gosh it could be over twenty-thousand tomorrow (is 17660 today:

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):

in short, recently they've been reporting about two and a half thousand new cases daily

Feel real sorry for the Italian. I have been hoping Italy reaches the inflection point soon. It just does not look like she will until April.

 

[Jura The idiot]

Today at 6:46 PM

Yesterday at 7:04 PM
gosh it could be over twenty-thousand tomorrow (is 17660 today:

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):

in short, recently they've been reporting about two and a half thousand new cases daily

I've now assumed 20000 tomorrow to create this:

it says like (don't nitpick) 'the number of cases quadruples on the 4th day'

at day #1 ... 79 cases set to the value of 1
at day #5 (the 4th day since day #1) ... 445 cases ... 445/79 is about 5.6 (should be 4.0 if it held exactly, which of course doesn't)
at day #9 (the 4th day since day #5) ... 1694 cases ... 1694/79 is about 21.4 (should be 16.0 if it held exactly, which of course doesn't)
at day #13 (the 4th day since day #9) ... 4636 cases ... 4636/79 is about 58.7 (should be 64.0 if it held exactly, which of course doesn't)
at day #17 (the 4th day since day #13) ... 10149 cases ... 10149/79 is about 128.5 (sic!) (should be 128.0 if it held exactly, which of course doesn't)
at day #21 (the 4th day since day #17) ... 20000 cases ... 20000/79 is about 253.2 (should be 256.0 if it held exactly, which of course doesn't)

the point? should it grow this way, they'd have 512*79 = 40448 cases on Wednesday, March 18

(I'm not saying this will happen, I just noticed the trend and expressed it in powers of 2)

 

[Quickie]

Then your average value estimation would also suffer from the time lag distortion I've described.

As I said repeatedly my model was simplified and the effects would be blunted in the real world, but it would be there. And no I never said the time lag would sudden increase in death cases at the end-stage. Rather it would lead to a higher daily death/daily discharged ratio toward the end of outbreak than it would otherwise be. I didn't say anything about the absolute number and I didn't say anything about the increase being 'sudden'.

The data outside Hubei isn't very helpful because the number of death outside Hubei is just too small. The time lag effect would be easily obscured. Let's wait for the Wuhan data. We're not that impatient, ain't we? Of course, even if we have the Wuhan data we couldn't really attribute its behaviors simply to the time lag or any other factor without doing a lot more research, which I have no time for. And even if the data turns out doesn't behave as I have predicated it doesn't mean the distortion effects ain't there. There might just be overwhelming counteracting factors. Sucks but working with real world data is always messy.

In any case, the increase in the proportion of serious case is probably not due to 'the way they define it so as to provide better care to the patients at the later stage of the epidemic when ample resources are available'. We have been on the 7th edition of NHC's COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment guideline for a while now, and the criteria for serious cases are set by the national guideline.

No, more likely the increase is a result of
"Using available preliminary data, the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks and is 3-6 weeks for patients with severe or critical disease. "

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Mild cases recovers much faster than serious cases. Since the number of new cases keeps decreasing, the proportion of serious cases keep increasing. As the proportion of serious cases increases, caeteris paribus, the daily death/daily recovery ratio goes up. This is how the time lag distortion works. Really I feel I've made a good prima facie case why there would be a time lag distortion (whose existence seems to me to be rather obvious). Shouldn't you bear the burden to give reasons why you think there isn't one?

Mild cases recovers much faster than serious cases. Since the number of new cases keeps decreasing, the proportion of serious cases keep increasing.

You forgot there's also more mild cases than serious cases!

For example, out of 80 mild cases to 20 serious cases, 8 mild cases may recover against 2 serious cases recovering, but the ratio of remaining mild cases to serious cases still remains the same. A better measure may be (existing + existed mild case)/(existing + existed serious cases). This solves the problem of variability of existing cases (more mild cases cured than normal becoming existed mild cases, or doctors deciding to keep patients with borderline mild/serious symptoms in hospitals for a longer period of time just to be on the safe side, becoming effectively serious cases.)

As the proportion of serious cases increases, caeteris paribus, the daily death/daily recovery ratio goes up. This is how the time lag distortion works. Really I feel I've made a good prima facie case why there would be a time lag distortion (whose existence seems to me to be rather obvious). Shouldn't you bear the burden to give reasons why you think there isn't one?

I have to keep repeating myself. There won't be a concentration of serious cases. Let me try once again.

Let's say 1000 patients got admitted to hospitals in China in the past 20 days, would 200 (20% of 1000) of these patients become classified as serious cases on the same one day sometime in the future. No, of course.

The 200 serious cases would be evenly spread out in a 20 days time period sometime in the future. This gets repeated in a continuum every day, and therefore the serious cases would be spread out reasonably evenly through time among and between the shorter period milder cases (which is four times more numerous).

If you still don't understand what I've explained then I think there's no point in the discussion.

Really I feel I've made a good prima facie case why there would be a time lag distortion (whose existence seems to me to be rather obvious). Shouldn't you bear the burden to give reasons why you think there isn't one?

Really? Without trying to understand what I have put forth?

Instead of just ranting off, why don't you key in the data and see for yourself the actual fact?

As you can see for yourself, the daily death / daily recovery ratio (for the whole of China) is actually going down quite markedly in the previous 10 days.

daily death	daily recovery	ratio
31​	2189​	0.014162​
30​	1681​	0.017847​
28​	1678​	0.016687​
27​	1661​	0.016255​
22​	1535​	0.014332​
17​	1297​	0.013107​
22​	1578​	0.013942​
11​	1318​	0.008346​
7​	1318​	0.005311​

 

[Rettam Stacf]

Yes.
Italy is now at 2500 new cases per day.

Spain, Germany and France aren't far behind in terms of new cases.

Spain: 1200
Germany: 800
France: 600

From the geographical, economics, technical capability and population size points of view, China should be compared with EU as a whole, with Italy being the equivalent of Hubei. US is the third entity for comparision.

 

[Jura The idiot]

Today at 6:10 PM

President Trump to declare national emergency to speed virus response, sources say

• Trump is under increasing pressure to act, as governors and mayors nationwide step up actions to mitigate the spread
• The president said he will hold a news conference at 3pm in Washington

so let's wait and see

oh the link:

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and

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did he overreact?
Monday at 6:52 AM

Sky rocketing? In Italy in Iran yes. in nations like Japan and South Korea perhaps. compared to their relative population. And the fact that South Korea refused to close the boarder to Chinese flights despite calls to do just that.
On the US you are spinning. It’s at 1/654,000. The odds of being struck by lightning are better.

 

[AssassinsMace]

Anyone notice the US is repeating information about the coronavirus that China already released to the public. I just saw an article where they said their study just revealed that people who don't show symptoms can still be infectious. They were going by reports from what allied countries experienced but don't even mention China where I read this in the Western media sources back when they were schooling China on how to handle an outbreak. Is this where they charge China is holding back info when it's because they just didn't bother? It's like they say China is so secretive about what the they're doing in tech when it's been publish. It's in Chinese so you're hiding something if you don't bother to hand them a translation. Or how about how their intelligence services don't trust anyone Chinese working for them, so there's no one to translate Chinese to them. But then since they expect China to hand a translated version to them, they wouldn't trust it anyway. It's called they're FUBAR.

I'm watching on TV how experts are calling for drastic restrictions. The same things China has done to contain the virus but they just don't call it draconian. Like I said in a previous post draconian would be if the infected were just shot and killed and the bodies were burned immediately. They look down at Asians because they think "saving face" is important. In the US it's called "ego". Same thing but different name but they think that makes all the world of difference. From the President to Congress to the media, it's all saving face on their part.

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Yes it's draconian to offer free testing and treatment to anyone who wants it like how China does it.

 

[localizer]

US still refuse to wear masks. But I have weak immune system and if i wear mask as Asian man when everyone else is white I'm probably going to get my ass beat.