Michael Osterholm is a scientist working for University of Minnesota. If you remember "zombie deer disease", he was working on it.
View attachment 58267
One of his employee has a close friend working in Milano now. According to what she said in e-mail:
1, doctors have to pick out some patients in same severe sickness.
2, doctors treating COVID-19 no longer take test themselves, tested positive doctors keep working in infectious zone.
3, only a small number of healthy doctor left, and they stay in tiny dedicated areas for non-covid patients.
4, many patients in their 40s are at horrible condition.
————————————
My interpret:
1, overloaded, overwhelmed, whatever you call the status quo, it happened because the doctors and vulnerable people were hit unprepared.
Foreign politicians and "jounalists" and "scholar prostitutes" keep saying China's number is fake, but use China's R0 and CFR to ease their people.
This is crime.
By any reasonable logic, the reality should be opposite.
Fact: China hammered a massive lockdown to slow the spread, and initiated social survalliance system to track all patients' interact with others, collected and screened all suspects again and again.
One lady I know got 25k samples tested in a single day of yesterday in the lab she works at, the peak of their workload was 37k samples per day.
Result of logical guess:
The numbers are close to truth, because China has 99% capability to track and test everyone and officials have 0 motivation to hide, especially after both Party No.1 in Hubei and Wuhan were discharged.
BUT, China's effective countermeasure against the disease unintentionally "helped" foreign professional liers downplay how serious COVID-19 itself is!
Have you noticed that the R0 on media was somewhere around 3 ?
JOKE.
Yeah, by China's data, by data from a place where entire population under lockdown forcefully and volutarily for more than a whole month
Wear the damn mask, please!
Ask these 2 questions to those who refuse wearing mask:
If there is a STD in rampant, would you keep the condom ready before f**k anyone no matter you are healthy or not?
You can choose whether, when and where to loose your belt, but do you have the choice of stop breathing?
Next aspect, the CFR. Ratios came out from their mouths varies 0.1%-2%, right?
JOKE AGAIN.
That only happens when you have enough medical assets.
CFR 1% is something only happens when all patients could have oxygen, ventilator and intubation when needed!
China "pulled the plug from socket" in other provinces. Only 20000 patients in a system works for 1 billion population, therefore they were treated by all methods. At last we got a CFR of 0.9% outside Hubei.
Mother China mounted 40k medics including 10% of ICU specialists in whole nation, 22k ventilators, and tens of million PPE into Hubei. Within 2 weeks, the 3rd Bureau of CSCEC built negative-pressure rooms enough for 2500 patients to have intubation.
Hubei now have a CFR of 4.51% (3056/67781).
You can never solve the problem until you look at it with reasonable attitude and courage to face ugly facts.
View attachment 58273
para1:
About 10% patients were a-sympyom at the beginning.
Overall 40-50% just stay mild in whole precedure, those you see in temporary hospitals on TV. They can dance and drinking some herbal medicine is enough for them. T-hospitals work mainly for stop spreading, prevent mild cases getting worse, send the degrading patients to general and special hospitals.
para2:
The rest half patients are complex. Many of them turn to severe even critical for different reasons.
Wuhan's medical resources is abundant, at the highest of developed country level, higher than US in many factors. It just get penerated by the outbreak.
China has sent 1/10 of ICU specialists from nationalwide to Wuhan.
para3:
There is no data of "Severe case ratio and R0 without medical interfere" in this world, for now. China could not reach an ethical level to create such a "controlled group". However, if this data somehow occured, it can help human to understand COVID-19 accurately, and set a solid database for dealing with new contagion in the future.
This is the true danger of COVID-19 patients:
In early phases of Wuhan,
38% patients turns to servious illness. According to a real frontline doctor, it means needs "deep external respiratory help", aka "ventilator at least".
Summarized from 2 news topics I found.
1. 国家卫健委医政医管局监察专员郭燕红介绍，目前武汉重症患者占比已从初期的38%下降至18%。
2. 国家卫健委：武汉重症病例占比从31.6%下降至22% 最近3天下降趋势明显；
1. National Health Commision inspector Guo Yanhong reports that Servious Case Ratio has dropped from 38% to 18% in Wuhan.
2. NHC: SCR in Wuhan dropped from 31.6% to 22% in last 3 days, an obvious trend of decrease.
Search how many ventilators there are in your city/state/country, then ×3, ok you get a number of maximum treatment capacity for COVID-19 if the SCR is 33% in perfect scenario (no medic down, no reserved/occupied ICU, private clinics keep open, etc.)
Do not "assume" something could miraculously bank a virus. It is a natural phenomenon and it will follow its own pattern.
If the patient number breach that capacity, your doctors will surely face the same choice of their Italian and Wuhan counterparts!
PROTECT YOURSELF IS GOOD FOR EVERYONE.
Conclusion of point 1:
If the country don't break the virus with resolute response or overwhelming power, this virus will overload the medical system. I am afraid the social order would be endangered next.
My interpret on point 2.
Heroism, duty and professional honor is shining.
Let's hope it is not twilight. Human have limit, don't push them too hard or they will break.
Italy has already begun recruiting medical students and retired doctors.
IF Italian government has a plan to rotate the exhausted fronline doctors, there is still hope to maintain the medical system functioning.
If these young and old are just simply put into frontline, things gonna be terrifying.
Why?
Italy is desperately excavating all possible medics when 2/10000 of population infected.
Until today, Hubei has 12/10000 (49978/57m) confirmed cases.
5× more patients is coming to Italy in a month, and that is the low number only happens if they can slow the spread down to Hubei's post-quarantine level. I hope they can.
Irresponsible behavior is causing terrible consequences everywhere.
Conclusion: Cover your mouth and nose with filter clothes called facemask. By stopping droplet, you reduce the chance of being infected. By stayin healthy, you are saving lives of others especially the doctors!
3, Chronic patients will have a difficult time. Forget about visiting doctors in next several months, they will be super busy if lucky enough not get sick.
4, the spin & b**ls**t trick finally bankrupt.
At first they say it only happens to China ("mainlanders") for the eating and health habit, prove it by using pictures of bat dishes in Palau and Indonesia, just as how they use photos S.Korea and Nepal police beating riot people's shit out toillustrate brutal oppression of "chinese regime". So true, so kind.
Then they say it can only become an epidemic in China because of its political system.
My country thus extended its quantitive superposition. She is both technologically backward and able to publish the gene sequence in 10 days, both uncaring to people and willing to cut down half economy to keep people healthy, both lacking international info-sharing and inviting WHO invesitigate team with experts from 5 continents including 2 USA fedral employees.
I use all both+and correctly because China is apparently a Schrodinger's cat in supermega scale.
As the disease goes abroad, soon Eastasians are considered poisonous by surrondings, whilst the actual race of patients are not published due to classification law.
Then, Caucasian, Latino, Aryan and Semitic people began to fell on sickbeds, too many for medias to hide. They made last desperate attempt of diversion
Conclusion:
Have had enough fun in blaming game, how about shut the irrelevant up and keep media open to real professionals in your country, really start to care your own people, plus listen some experience of good and fault from China?
Epilogue:
3 basic conditions are universal to all epidemic: it needs source of pathogen, vulnerable people, mean of spread.
Source of pathogen is difficult to find for the COVID-19 is able to infect in incubation or without symptom.
With enough collective effort, the patient, infected and suspect would gradually be pulled out. That's mainly the job for government, but you should be aware that everybody you met is a possible carrier.
Vulnerable people could only be reduced by vaccine. Virus doesn't care your race, age and gender. True, someone are born immune to a certain disease but that difference is unperceivable and untransferable so stop dreaming about it.
The means of spread is what you can do something on. COVID-19 is carried by droplets and close contact.
Wear a mask, it stops emitting droplets if you are sick, also prevent inhaling droplets if someone you met is sick.
Stay calm, keep organized, keep mind in protection, we will get through this.
