Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

dratsabknihcllik

Junior Member
Registered Member
I live here my friend, I pay the taxes, the affordable care act did indeed cost me my dream job, and I was unemployed except for small teaching and truck driving jobs for nearly two years as a direct result,,, remember the department of labor had to extend unemployment benefits to 99 weeks, that crazy....

and I had to pay a couple of grand to the govt as a penalty for not having health insurance, when I could NOT afford health insurance under the affordable care act....
Cannot like your post and I am extremely sorry to hear that. I really hope you get lots of success in your current and upcoming ventures. I know it's tough to say positive things about such schemes especially after going through such horrendous experience you went through, but I would still say that in America there is a amazingly high proportion of people who kind of exploit the social security or other government provided services. So I will say that it's the mindset if people which is causing the problem in the states. As an analogy, if we consider the case of Nordic countries we will see that they provide lots of government services to people but the government can sustain as people there love to work. However, after the steady influx of economic piggybackers( I am not against genuine refugees) small towns have started feeling the pinch. I think it's same in the US.
 

Quickie

Colonel
OK, now I see where the misunderstanding lies. I copied and pasted the wrong formula from your earlier post when I wrote



I meant to claim your preferred method of estimation, current average daily death / ("average daily death + average daily cured") would overestimate.


Remember the discussion started when I made a crude estimation of the ongoing fatality rate for serious cases given Wuhan's vastly expanded healthcare capacity.

Here's the quote




You then bought up a method of estimating the final case fatality rate





I pointed out there will be a time-induced distortion with your method, and the effect will be particularly pronounced toward the end of the outbreak. And the unforunate miscopying notwithstanding, my point still stands, current average daily death / ("average daily death + average daily cured") will overestimate toward the end of the outbreak.

It won't be an overestimation rather it will be a good estimation because the longer the epidemic progress, the closer the calculated current average daily death / ("average daily death + average daily cured") figure will get to the final mortality rate.

The epidemic has been going on for about one and a half month now (long enough for the curve to stabilize) and there is only 5% of unresolved cases outside of Hubei in China.

Take a look at the mortality rate outside Hubei in this graph. The epidemic is at end-stage and it's stabilizing at 0.88%.

If you have the time to calculate the mortality rate (or the average mortality rate) at the stabilized part of the curve i.e. 02/27 to 03/11 (and possibly right through the end of the epidemic) you will see that there will be no distortion of the calculated value between the beginning and ending part of the stabilized curve.

Mrate.png
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I live here my friend, I pay the taxes, the affordable care act did indeed cost me my dream job, and I was unemployed except for small teaching and truck driving jobs for nearly two years as a direct result,,, remember the department of labor had to extend unemployment benefits to 99 weeks, that crazy....

and I had to pay a couple of grand to the govt as a penalty for not having health insurance, when I could NOT afford health insurance under the affordable care act....

At the present time, approximately 28 million Americans (9% of the population) do not have health insurance, mostly because they cannot afford it. But if those 28 million Americans don't have access to health care, they won't visit the doctor or seek medical treatment.

From a practical point of view, those uninsured will end up spreading COVID-19 to the rest of the population.
So it makes sense that SOMEONE has to pay for basic health care for the poorest 9%.
Otherwise the other 91% of the population will suffer as well.

There are studies which show that universal health coverage (which has to involve subsidies to the poorest), results in a healthier population OVERALL.

The original goal of Obamacare was that the poorest would barely have to pay anything.
It would be along the lines of the UK or Germany for example, where the unemployed and low income earners barely pay anything, but still have access to basic healthcare.

They would be subsidised by the middle and higher income earners.
But then the Republicans gutted Obamacare so this didn't happen.

From a moral and philosophical point of view, a nation which see sees itself as a single people, shouldn't begrudge basic health care for the poorest sections of its fellow citizens.

After all, who knows if you will lose your own job and then need basic health care provided by the government?

And looking forward to the future after COVID-19 has passed, a rational US would enact universal health care for the entire population, and ensure the poorest only pay minimally. We're talking like a $5 copayment for each visit to a family doctor.

But Republican ideology is against government intervention and subsidies to the poorest.
Plus the existing entrenched healthcare lobby is happy with the situation as it is.

Remember, they did manage to gut Obamacare.
 
It's simple. I have spent almost 8 years in Europe and have plenty of friends and acquaintances. I have my fair share of experience of meeting sophisticated Brits, workaholic Germans and Nordics, and loads of eastern European s***s.
It all boils down to personal experience.
dratsabknihcllik
why did you bring your, politely put, prejudice into
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

?

Exactly, stop the Flame Baiting drat! consider this a warning!
 
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