Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Quickie]

Of course in the real world there won't be a 'jump'. The model was made on simplifying assumptions. In the real world there is not even a sharp distinction between mild and severe cases. Everything will be on a continuum. But the phenomenon the model illustrates is real. On average it takes a shorter time for a mild case patient to recover than for a severe case patient to recover. On average mild case patients being discharged today would have been infected later than severe case patients being discharged today. If we're on the right hand half of the bell curve (which we are), this will cause a distortion, because the number of new infections keeps dropping over time.

I don't know why you think the decreasing daily crude fatality rate on the last four days would disprove the distortion I mentioned. It's clear that the number of daily resolved cases are by now too small to deduce a trend from just four data points. Also, in case you didn't notice, the five days average is higher for the second five days than for the first five days.

The proportion of mild cases patient will keep decreasing. This trend will continue and given the speed in which mild case patients are being discharged, a couple weeks from now almost all mild case patients will have recovered, and there will still be many patients in serious conditions. Take a look then at fatality rate calculated from your method and tell me it's not overestimating. Why don't we wait before revisiting this discussion?

The proportion of mild cases patient will keep decreasing. This trend will continue and given the speed in which mild case patients are being discharged, a couple weeks from now almost all mild case patients will have recovered, and there will still be many patients in serious conditions. Take a look then at fatality rate calculated from your method and tell me it's not overestimating. Why don't we wait before revisiting this discussion?

I've already explained why it won't happen that way.

Even if it does let's say because a big bunch of patients got infected on the same day, it won't affect the final mortality rate because the patients that are expected to recover will have already been counted for the calculation albeit at an earlier time. This is the same with the number of patients that are expected to die, albeit at a later time. So, at the end stage of this hypothetical epidemic with no new infections coming in, you may see more patients dying than recovering, but the mortality rate will still remain the same when the number of death is finally included in the calculation together with the number of the recovered patients that have already been counted earlier.

And what makes you think the progress of the infection follows a bell curve? It will arrive at a steady state when the conditions are stabilized and unchanging - conditions such as the availability of medicines, equipment, doctors, medics, etc. Just look at the mortality curve on this web site. The curve goes up and down at the earlier stage when things were in a mess before coming to the steady-state or near steady-state condition at the later stage when things finally settle down a bit.

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[localizer]

@TerraN_EmpirE we need to see how this spreads in places like Florida, Texas, Cali, then we can make predictions about summer for rest of the US.

So far the relative lack of cases in Africa and India is promising.

2003 SARS was from November to July.

 

[vesicles]

In Singapore the first few cases came from abroad.
The count now is 178. Spread within Singapore itself.

Being on the equator and an aisland as well, , it is not going to get colder, or warmer here.

Singapore has not been very aggressive in terms of closing off its border. what they have done is actually very similar to what the US and Japan have been doing. One could imagine that they could've gotten much worse if Singapore is located a little more north... Of course, this is all a guess since we have no data on how the virus would behave in a hot weather. Hopefully, we don't need to find out (the outbreak would end way before summer is here)...

 

[Gatekeeper]

Now, it is official, it is now a pandemic. How confident are we, that we have the right man in charge?

https://www.facebook.com/7976226799/posts/10158524961136800

 

[Rettam Stacf]

Singapore is almost on the equator. Temperature hovers about 28 to 32C.
All those talks of covid19 dying in summer when temperature over 20C dont make any sense to me.
If so, there should be no infection of covid19 in Singapore at all. Do recall Singapore was one of the earliest country to be hit outside of China.
For that matter, body temperature about 36C
Which meant covid19 would not have survived the encounter with humans at all.
How did the rubbish about covid 19 dying out in summer came about?

Wishful thinking?

Singapore has much higher number of confirmed cases than her neighboring countries. Extensive testing and thorough contact tracing explain part of it. But another theory is the extensive use of air conditioning in Singapore. Covid-19 spread mostly through indoor activities such as in homes, meetings, offices, restaurants meals (large banquets and small get together of friends and family), car ride and public transport etc. All under air conditioning.

Air conditioning is similarly used extensively in the US South. Summer relief is unlikely for most developed countries.

 

[OppositeDay]

That will be at the end stage when no more new cases are coming in.

But you miss the point again!

It won't affect the final mortality rate because the patients that are expected to recover will have already been counted for the calculation albeit at an earlier time. This is the same with the number of patients that are expected to die, albeit at a later time. So, at the end stage of the infections with no new infections coming in, you may see more patients dying than recovering, but the mortality rate will still remain the same when the number of death is finally included in the calculation together with the number of the recovered patients that have already been counted earlier.

And what makes you think the progress of the infection follows a bell curve? It will arrive at a steady state when the conditions are stabilized and unchanging - conditions such as the availability of medicines, equipment, doctors, medics etc. Just look at the mortality curve on this web site. The curve goes up and down at the earlier stage when things were in a mess before coming to the steady-state or near steady-state condition at the later stage when things finally settle down a bit.

View attachment 58250

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No it's a constant effect as long as the number of new cases are decreasing. You can calculate mild cases/total cases for the last ten days. It's dropping. Why? Because on average mild cases recover faster than serious cases, and on average we're seeing less and less new cases per day.

We're not even discussing the final case fatality rate, so I don't know why you're bringing it up. We're discussing whether the formula daily death/(daily discharged+daily death) overestimate the case fatality rate (when we're on the downward part of the epi curve), and it seems you actually agree it's an overestimate.

Epi curve and mortality curve are two different things.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Thank you Siege, while much of this is in Chinese, as you scroll down you see specific information in English, pm Siege if you need some help with translation....

You can add /en to the end of the url link to see the English version.

 

[Air Force Brat]

What is Obamastan?

Well, I'd love to tell you, but then I'd have to give myself a warning, lets just say lots of beautiful black dirt, verdant prairie, hills, streams, corn, soybeans, sorghum, beef and dairy cattle,,,,,, and some high falutin, high tax and spend politicians that ran about half the business out of the state of Central Obamastan, lousy roads and bridges, economy that is tanking.... a beautiful place

oh I forgot Chicago, which is where most of the tax and spend comes in..... anyway, I lost an amazing 3 jobs working for a Hospice, that I was very good at. Thanks to the affordable care act and the medicare re-write that resulted in cutting reimbursements for every single medical service we offered,, so lots of jobs got cut.

anyway it is personal, and yes I pay a lot more taxes, but a sardonic sense of humor does indeed make it kinda fun!

 

[Air Force Brat]

You can add /en to the end of the url link to see the English version.

Thanks Bub!

 

[nugroho]

Singapore is almost on the equator. Temperature hovers about 28 to 32C.
All those talks of covid19 dying in summer when temperature over 20C dont make any sense to me.
If so, there should be no infection of covid19 in Singapore at all. Do recall Singapore was one of the earliest country to be hit outside of China.
For that matter, body temperature about 36C
Which meant covid19 would not have survived the encounter with humans at all.
How did the rubbish about covid 19 dying out in summer came about?

Wishful thinking?

Temperature, UV from Sun, , humidity are our defenders, but there are useless if the carrier and the victim had a close contact.