Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[KYli]

By the end of 2022, nearly 25% of Americans still haven't gotten infected with COVID even more a few massive wave of infections. The above study from nature saying 97% of Chinese population got infected in December and arrived at the estimate of infection fatality is as unscientific and irresponsible as you can get.

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On the flip side, the CDC estimated 77.5 percent of people had antibodies from at least one prior infection.

 

[coolgod]

By the end of 2022, nearly 25% of Americans still haven't gotten infected with COVID even more a few massive wave of infections. The above study from nature saying 97% of Chinese population got infected in December and arrived at the estimate of infection fatality is as unscientific and irresponsible as you can get.

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On the flip side, the CDC estimated 77.5 percent of people had antibodies from at least one prior infection.

I have doubts about that 25% of Americans never got infected figure. For reference I compared to Canada seroprevalence numbers

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. I read somewhere that the antibodies can fade over time thus the serosurvey undercount the true number of infected. Since everyone in China got infected in one big wave, I think a serosurvey would show something like 96% infected rate.

 

[KYli]

I have doubts about that 25% of Americans never got infected figure. For reference I compared to Canada seroprevalence numbers

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. I read somewhere that the antibodies can fade over time thus the serosurvey undercount the true number of infected. Since everyone in China got infected in one big wave, I think a serosurvey would show something like 96% infected rate.

The nature study is just a guesswork with no hard data. For whatever reason, infection tends to peter out after reaching 60% to 70% threshold. China COVID wave in December and January has ended much sooner than most experts predicted which mean either the spread is even faster or the infection rate came down dramatically after reaching certain level. In the end of the day, Nature report is just not based upon scientific methods.

 

[coolgod]

The nature study is just a guesswork with no hard data. For whatever reason, infection tends to peter out after reaching 60% to 70% threshold. China COVID wave in December and January has ended much sooner than most experts predicted which mean either the spread is even faster or the infection rate came down dramatically after reaching certain level. In the end of the day, Nature report is just not based upon scientific methods.

Even if that nature report is not based upon scientific methods, I think based on covid self-reported surveys, we should be seeing 90%+ infection rate in China and US.

 

[KYli]

Even if that nature report is not based upon scientific methods, I think based on covid self-reported surveys, we should be seeing 90%+ infection rate in China and US.

Maybe so, it is quick likely that most people got infected but for whatever reason many people never tested positive even though all their family members got infected. Maybe some people's body just don't register any impact from prior infection with COVID. Anyway, these people won't be counted as infected during any scientific study that is why nature study is flawed.

 

[henrik]

The nature study is just a guesswork with no hard data. For whatever reason, infection tends to peter out after reaching 60% to 70% threshold. China COVID wave in December and January has ended much sooner than most experts predicted which mean either the spread is even faster or the infection rate came down dramatically after reaching certain level. In the end of the day, Nature report is just not based upon scientific methods.

Do they have any similar report on India?

 

[KYli]

It is not like Wuhan institute needs American funding anyway. At this point, any future cooperation is improbable. Biden and Bloomberg are trying to make nothing out of thin air.

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[KYli]

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[daifo]

Cremation figures were briefly posted on official Chinese website for 1 province during the period of covid outbreak. Rough estimation from those numbers calculated for the rest of China would come up with 1-1.5 million excessive deaths. IMO, death toll is higher than official gov 80k figure.

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[zbb]

Cremation figures were briefly posted on official Chinese website for 1 province during the period of covid outbreak. Rough estimation from those numbers calculated for the rest of China would come up with 1-1.5 million excessive deaths. IMO, death toll is higher than official gov 80k figure.

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Assuming the estimate of 1-1.5 million excess deaths is correct, that works out to 700~1050 excess deaths per million.

For comparison, below are cumulative reported

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for some selected countries/territories.



Note that cumulative excess deaths since March 2020 for most of the above countries/territories are significantly higher than their reported COVID death numbers, e.g. Japan's total excess deaths since March 2020 is 1690 per million.