Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[taxiya]

I want to remind people NOT to equate "excessive measures" to "zero covid", nor equate "lifting measures" to "abandoning zero covid". These are different things on different dimensions.

If there is one case in Beijing, are you going to lock down the whole 12 million people? Or just 100 close contacts? Which is "zero covid"? Why not lock every Chinese in the country just for one known case to be qualified as "zero covid" policy?

On the other hand, when all tracible contacts have been quarantined or cleared, lifting the lock down is the only measure to take. This has happened all the time. Is it only "locked down forever" being zero covid?

Local government tend to over-do what they are ordered to do so they are not to be blamed if something went wrong. They would be more harsh if the central government tells them to be strict. They would be more relaxed if the central government tells them to relax. This has happened through out the Chinese history.

My advice, don't jump to conclusion just by reading one piece of news.

 

[KYli]

Before, if the local government found 1 case and lockdown and test quickly, they could quickly extinguish covid cases within a few weeks. It is no longer possible to do so now due to the much more contagious feature of Omicron and much more cases all over the country and much less restricted quarantine requirements.

However, the new and less intrusive way to combat covid might not work that well. It could buy time for the government but I am doubtful it could prevent a massive outbreak. Both Hong Kong and Shanghai have failed to rein in the rapid spreading of covid. Even though you can blame HK and Shanghai government's deficiencies for the failure but I am very doubtful the outcome for other local governments would be much better.

 

[EtherealSmoke]

You guys are misusing “Zero Covid” in English. When I use Zero Covid, I’m referring to the comprehensive measures the government took to completely eliminate COVID wherever it appeared with the goal of bringing cases and spread to 0. That was only possible through extremely strict lockdown measures. That’s clearly over with the relaxation of restrictions in Guangzhou and Beijing. Broad infection throughout the country will be inevitable moving forward.

It’s a question of controlling the spread at this point.

Too many people asking the impossible from the government, you’re only setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[Quan8410]

Although the implementation is up on cities, the expectation is the same: to not collapse the healthcare system. However testing the implementation is hard. When the system collapse, it could lead to disaster. No wonder some cities over doing it, especially with a 24 million population like Guangzhou. When they relax the restriction, the cases just rise non stop so no choice for them to avoid the fate of Shanghai.

 

[Franklin]

If you compare the numbers in Shanghai and Hubei they both have almost the same number of confirmed cases but the death rate in Shanghai is almost 9 times lower. This is the result of the combination of vaccines and the less virulent Omicron variant. If you look at the current wave of outbreaks there have been hundreds of thousands of confirmed and asymptomatic cases but the number of people dying or ending up in the ICU is negligible.

Based on the information from China's NHC (health ministry) as of 29 november 2022 there are 35616 confirmed cases and 376862 asymptomatic cases active but there are only about a hundred people in a serious condition presumably in the ICU. And there hasn't been any death's for days. Maybe what is happening in Guangzhou is the first step towards the endemic stage of the pandemic.

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[Abominable]

I've been saying for some time that the west wants China to end their zero covid policy and have been waiting for them to say it openly.

Over the past few days mainstream media has been bombarded with reports against the zero COVID policy:

Notice these are from both "left" and "right" sources. Despite being supposedly very ideologically divided they are all reaching the same conclusion and are putting forward the same position. That's a sure sign that all these reports are a government campaign.

It's an interesting change in strategy from the west. Previously the narrative was CPC bad, Uyghars oppressed, etc. If China's policy was bad and was destroying China, shouldn't America be happy it's in place? Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.

The protests we saw weren't an attempt to overthrow the CPC, they were an attempt to force the CPC to end the zero COVID policy. America and Europe have realised that without Chinese growth, their economies are doomed.

Assuming the protests fail, the next steps will be interesting. I don't think it'll be easy for a western diplomats to directly ask China to open their economy. There already is a lot of pressure on China to provide less support to Russia.

What ever happens, the zero COVID policy must be continued for as long as necessary.

 

[Quickie]

Before, if the local government found 1 case and lockdown and test quickly, they could quickly extinguish covid cases within a few weeks. It is no longer possible to do so now due to the much more contagious feature of Omicron and much more cases all over the country and much less restricted quarantine requirements.

However, the new and less intrusive way to combat covid might not work that well. It could buy time for the government but I am doubtful it could prevent a massive outbreak. Both Hong Kong and Shanghai have failed to rein in the rapid spreading of covid. Even though you can blame HK and Shanghai government's deficiencies for the failure but I am very doubtful the outcome for other local governments would be much better.

The difference now is more of China's population is vaccinated and possibly more have already been exposed to the virus going by the much higher daily infection count (although natural immunity should still be relatively low).

That China is now more immunologically prepared could be suggested by the fact that China has only single-digit deaths out of the tens of thousands of daily infections for the past few weeks.

The only thing I worry about is without lockdown the more virulent variant of the virus is given more chances to evolve and spread simply through the increased number of infections. In this sense, lockdown is useful since it's the most virulent variant of the virus that gets the most attention and gets contained through quarantine and lockdown measures as opposed to a virus variant that causes mostly asymptomatic or mild symptoms that may go unnoticed.

But China will have to open up eventually and IMO will only do so slowly, removing restrictions and reducing lockdowns in stages.

 

[KYli]

The difference now is more of China's population is vaccinated and possibly more have already been exposed to the virus going by the much higher daily infection count (although natural immunity should still be relatively low).

That China is now more immunologically prepared could be suggested by the fact that China has only single-digit deaths out of the tens of thousands of daily infections for the past few weeks.

The only thing I worry about is without lockdown the more virulent variant of the virus is given more chances to evolve and spread simply through the increased number of infections. In this sense, lockdown is useful since it's the most virulent variant of the virus that gets the most attention and gets contained through quarantine and lockdown measures as opposed to a virus variant that causes mostly asymptomatic or mild symptoms that may go unnoticed.

But China will have to open up eventually and IMO will only do so slowly, removing restrictions and reducing lockdowns in stages.

It doesn't matter. if you have enough cases and hospitals got overwhelmed and you would have more deaths. Hong Kong has average 10 deaths per day and Japan has over 100 deaths per day and the US has 300 deaths per day. It is just unavoidable no matter what.

I don't think it isn't unacceptable for hundreds deaths per day. A very bad flu season could kill as much. It is just people need to prepare for it that it is the price that needs to be paid.

 

[vincent]

If you compare the numbers in Shanghai and Hubei they both have almost the same number of confirmed cases but the death rate in Shanghai is almost 9 times lower. This is the result of the combination of vaccines and the less virulent Omicron variant. If you look at the current wave of outbreaks there have been hundreds of thousands of confirmed and asymptomatic cases but the number of people dying or ending up in the ICU is negligible.

Based on the information from China's NHC (health ministry) as of 29 november 2022 there are 35616 confirmed cases and 376862 asymptomatic cases active but there are only about a hundred people in a serious condition presumably in the ICU. And there hasn't been any death's for days. Maybe what is happening in Guangzhou is the first step towards the endemic stage of the pandemic.

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Deaths are only one part of the damage COVID can do. Long COVID is another part

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

Deaths are only one part of the damage COVID can do. Long COVID is another part

Speaking of Long Covid, here is the financial aspect of its damage:

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To be honest, the Chinese should have really emphasized this more than anything else.