Taiwan and Japan both would be fully open up next month. Hong Kong would end hotel quarantine next month. All of them got hit with new wave just now so next wave would be in the winter.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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Colonel
That's how China started off the fight against the pandemic.
For some reason, the mindset and action, extreme as it may seem to be, have always been as if it is being under attack with bioweapons,
As to why China is so bent on following through this way, who knows? Perhaps those in power in China have reasons/intelligence to speculate that that may well have actually happened perhaps as a form of economic war against the country.
No, not proudly made in China. Rather designed in the USA, let loose in China (either by outbreak or simply made in a factory) and sent back to the USA by plane and the USA let it run wild. So China accepts no blame for the screw ups of the USA, except they can only face palm at the sheer stupidity
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If you think about it, even if China's policies are strict, they are just delaying full opening by about a year compared with most countries. Now Hong Kong and Macau are opening, just expect their economies to surge. China will follow very soon with full opening.
Looks like the rest of Asia are starting to reopen as well. Japan, Taiwan are planning to reopen in mid Oct to foreign tourism with no restrictions.
The chief scientist of China's CDC thinks that there will be more than 50% in probability for a sixth global wave in this coming winter although there will not be as many deaths as in prior surges.
In a less likely scenario, 30% to 50% by chance, the weekly average of new cases and deaths will remain as high as they are currently through the winter.
Even in the least probably scenario, where new cases and deaths will continue to drop, he still does not think that the pandemic will be over in the winter.
If he is speaking not just for himself but for the agency and the scientist community in the field, and if the Chinese government sticks with the "science-based" zero-covid policies, the country will probably not be fully opening up soon.
[However the weekly new case number of 30k to 50k in his second scenario looks wrong to me. The US alone is adding more than that every day right now. Perhaps he got a typo and meant 300k to 500k new cases weekly?]
9月23日，中国疾控中心流行病学首席专家@吴尊友ChinaCDC 在微博发文，分析今冬新冠疫情的三种走势。
吴尊友说，今冬新冠疫情的趋势还很难判定。不过，疫情走势有三种可能情景。
第一种情景是疫情在当前的形势下继续向好，虽然不大可能在今冬实现新冠疫情结束，但新冠的发病数和死亡数将继续下降。出现这种情景的可能性比较小，概率不到30%。
第二种情景是维持或小范围波动于当前的疫情状况，即今冬的新冠发病人数每周波动在3万至5万例，每周新冠死亡人数波动在1-2万例之间。出现这种情景的可能性存在，概率约在30%-50%。
第三种情景是今冬将出现全球第六波新冠疫情流行。出现这种情景的可能性比较大，概率约在50%以上。判断依据有三：一是当前的全球疫情形势依然处于高位水平流行；二是很快进入冬季，即使没有新的变异毒株出现，仅人员聚集和流动，加上冬季环境，就足以将当前的疫情数推向新一波流行；三是根据过去近三年的病毒变异情况来看，还不能排除出现新变异毒株的可能。
尽管出现第三种情景的可能性相对要大一些，但今冬新冠疫情造成的死亡人数，估计不会很大。依据有三：一是全球疫苗接种持续向好，接种率继续不断提高；二是前五波疫情已经造成人群中最弱的那部分人死亡，剩下的部分对新冠的抗击能力相对较强；三是从过去的疫情防控中总结了经验，加上新治疗药物的应用，卫生系统更有能力应对可能发生的新一轮疫情。
In a less likely scenario, 30% to 50% by chance, the weekly average of new cases and deaths will remain as high as they are currently through the winter.
Even in the least probably scenario, where new cases and deaths will continue to drop, he still does not think that the pandemic will be over in the winter.
If he is speaking not just for himself but for the agency and the scientist community in the field, and if the Chinese government sticks with the "science-based" zero-covid policies, the country will probably not be fully opening up soon.
[However the weekly new case number of 30k to 50k in his second scenario looks wrong to me. The US alone is adding more than that every day right now. Perhaps he got a typo and meant 300k to 500k new cases weekly?]
9月23日，中国疾控中心流行病学首席专家@吴尊友ChinaCDC 在微博发文，分析今冬新冠疫情的三种走势。
吴尊友说，今冬新冠疫情的趋势还很难判定。不过，疫情走势有三种可能情景。
第一种情景是疫情在当前的形势下继续向好，虽然不大可能在今冬实现新冠疫情结束，但新冠的发病数和死亡数将继续下降。出现这种情景的可能性比较小，概率不到30%。
第二种情景是维持或小范围波动于当前的疫情状况，即今冬的新冠发病人数每周波动在3万至5万例，每周新冠死亡人数波动在1-2万例之间。出现这种情景的可能性存在，概率约在30%-50%。
第三种情景是今冬将出现全球第六波新冠疫情流行。出现这种情景的可能性比较大，概率约在50%以上。判断依据有三：一是当前的全球疫情形势依然处于高位水平流行；二是很快进入冬季，即使没有新的变异毒株出现，仅人员聚集和流动，加上冬季环境，就足以将当前的疫情数推向新一波流行；三是根据过去近三年的病毒变异情况来看，还不能排除出现新变异毒株的可能。
尽管出现第三种情景的可能性相对要大一些，但今冬新冠疫情造成的死亡人数，估计不会很大。依据有三：一是全球疫苗接种持续向好，接种率继续不断提高；二是前五波疫情已经造成人群中最弱的那部分人死亡，剩下的部分对新冠的抗击能力相对较强；三是从过去的疫情防控中总结了经验，加上新治疗药物的应用，卫生系统更有能力应对可能发生的新一轮疫情。