Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[ougoah]

How can you be 100% sure? Influenza kills hundreds of thousands of people a year, not all of them were already on death's door. How can you know your next bout of influenza won't set off a cytokine storm that would kill you in hours?




You seem to misunderstand some very basic statistical facts. The ~2.5k aren't the total number of infections, those are confirmed infections - people sick enough to be admitted into a hospital and administered a test for the virus, or people interviewed by medical authorities due to contact with other confirmed cases and tested positive for the virus. This is smaller - probably far smaller - than the total number of infected, which isn't known. There are people walking around with it who won't show symptoms and would never know they had it.

Your thought experiment of infecting six random people and seeing how many survive is an attempt to estimate the lethality of a virus given the total number of infections. That simply isn't known in this case.


No, it doesn't look like influenza at all. So far it looks much milder than influenza, which infects millions and kills hundreds of thousands each year.

Agree with the stats. If anything the infected numbers are FAR greater than the 2.5K reported. Which sends mortality rate down but this is assuming the reported mortality rate is both honest and accurate. It's not certain these are accurate even if the reporting is truthful. Maybe they have not counted many deaths as caused by novel Coronavirus. Some acquaintances in China are saying hospitals and doctors are not able to verify cases and just recommend people showing signs to stay home. It's difficult to say what the real infected numbers are and almost as difficult to have accurate mortality rate.

Influenza kills more people than most are aware of but it's not in the hundreds of thousands. One figure I say was 89,000 globally in 2017 IIRC. And this is not just for influenza but all influenza like respiratory illnesses combined. Of course it's also an estimate since some nations do not have the means to keep accurate and reliable records.

This new virus is tougher than average influenza and combines pneumonia as a likely potential development. It's more horrible than some on this forum are making it out to be.

 

[localizer]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

comment section lol

 

[ougoah]

Get yourself educated on how virus and bacteria infection work.
I got swine flu before and I came out just fine. A few days of very high fever were tough but somehow I pulled it through.

That is a worthless sample size of one. It's totally irrelevant to this discussion. I also caught swine flu when it made its rounds in the 21st century. Every individual may react differently to different things. Besides, we're not talking about swine flu or influenza. We shouldn't be assuming it will be the same as the known common flu with what is known so far.

This has the potential to be very devastating if it spreads as far as influenza has. Its mortality rate seems to be higher than typical seasonal flu types.

Personally I think it's already now impossible to contain and eradicate. With some luck/ divine will, it will just be another additional flu type that humans will grow to become used to like the flu and colds we already have and the STDs that have stuck around for eons. Reason I think this is because it spreads far easier than colds and flus with a significantly higher speculated R0. Combine that with how widely it has already spread, it's a totally lost cause by now. Time will tell.

 

[zgx09t]

That is a worthless sample size of one. It's totally irrelevant to this discussion. I also caught swine flu when it made its rounds in the 21st century. Every individual may react differently to different things. Besides, we're not talking about swine flu or influenza. We shouldn't be assuming it will be the same as the known common flu with what is known so far.

This has the potential to be very devastating if it spreads as far as influenza has. Its mortality rate seems to be higher than typical seasonal flu types.

Personally I think it's already now impossible to contain and eradicate. With some luck/ divine will, it will just be another additional flu type that humans will grow to become used to like the flu and colds we already have and the STDs that have stuck around for eons. Reason I think this is because it spreads far easier than colds and flus with a significantly higher speculated R0. Combine that with how widely it has already spread, it's a totally lost cause by now. Time will tell.

I'm not saying anything to pooh pooh the current outbreak.
There is a fine line between educated caution and hysteria without evening knowing the basics.
If you are strong and young without any complications, you have better chance of surviving a viral infection than weaker older people with complications. So getting educated on how these infections work is a good start, instead of speculating on maximum damage it could possibly do.

 

[ougoah]

I'm not saying anything to pooh pooh the current outbreak.
There is a fine line between educated caution and hysteria without evening knowing the basics.
If you are strong and young without any complications, you have better chance of surviving a viral infection than weaker older people with complications. So getting educated on how these infections work is a good start, instead of speculating on maximum damage it could possibly do.

I agree with these points but I was quoting and addressing your swine flu comment. Then adding other points not related to the quote.

It is scarier than flu with what is being presented as possibilities by different media and authorities. At the moment it appears and latency period is pretty much the same as incubation. This makes the virus exponentially easier to spread. Therefore I think IFF these worst case theories being offered so far are actual reality, then there is little chance of containing it.

 

[zgx09t]

I agree with these points but I was quoting and addressing your swine flu comment. Then adding other points not related to the quote.

It is scarier than flu with what is being presented as possibilities by different media and authorities. At the moment it appears and latency period is pretty much the same as incubation. This makes the virus exponentially easier to spread. Therefore I think IFF these worst case theories being offered so far are actual reality, then there is little chance of containing it.

I was referring to the nature of viral infection. There's not much we can do except rely our own immune system. That's as basic as it can get. The rest is just putting more emphasis on which one is scarier, they all kill just the same if the immune system is not strong enough to cope with it. So getting educated in how they work will only make you deal with it level headed and give you a better chance at survival.

 

[vesicles]

I don't want to be that one guy who say "we are doomed" encouraging panic, however saying that the Wu flu can be cured 100% in a healthy patient even if he stays home & takes absolutely no medication... it's practicaly like lying to one's self just to assure himself "everything's fine".

Not sure who said the Coronavirus is 100% curable in healthy people... If someone said this, we need to be completely clear on that: it is clearly not the case. Everyone responds to infections differently. An otherwise perfectly healthy human can have a massive response to a viral attack, while some seemingly sick person may have a mild response. No one can predict his/her own response to a viral infection.

I believe that correct message that the officials, including Chinese, American and WHO officials, are saying is this: if your symptoms are mild, stay at home and rest. Don't come to the hospital. When you develop serious symptoms, such as shortness of breaths and/or more serious symptoms, go to the hospital.

The reason for this advice is the following: there is no cure. Not whatsoever. When you only have some mild symptoms and head to the hospital, they will give you some water and ask you to wait until you feel better and go home. They won't do anything. At least they shouldn't do anything. I know that Chinese doctors like to give their patients IV fluid. That's actually a bad practice.

When you develop serious symptoms, you go to the hospital. The doctors will treat the symptoms only, easing your pain and subdue coughing, etc... They cannot do anything else. Again, no cure.

Going to the hospital with only mild symptoms will overwhelm the hospital and distract them from saving those with life-threatening symptoms. Also, cross-contamination has been a huge issue in hospitals around the world, including the US. Hospitals have been the breeding ground for super bugs (bacteria and yeasts), the kinds that resist any drugs and the kind that will kill a LOT more efficiently than any flu and Coronaviruses. Now with the hospitals crowded with patients, their tools and resources for effective isolation must be stretched to the limit. Now is the time for these super bugs to sneak onto people. This is why they tell people to stay at home and do self-isolation when your symptoms are mild (note! nothing to do with whether or not you are 100% healthy).

 

[obj 705A]

This new virus is tougher than average influenza and combines pneumonia as a likely potential development. It's more horrible than some on this forum are making it out to be.

yeah, even Xi Jinping said China is in a grave situation yet some people here say "guys it's just influenza or even less risky than influenza because X number of people die each year from influenza while in comparison only 80 died in few days from Wu flu".
if the number of deaths is the problem then don't worry.. tomorow the number of deaths will reach near 100 & seeing as how it's spreading like wildfire each day even with all this quarintine don't be surprised if in one week (more or less from now) it reaches 200.. people better take it seriously instead of sticking their head in the sand like an Ostrich, how long has it been since the measures began? 5 days maybe? & in this period 80 people died so if it keeps on spreading at the current rate each week 100 people will die, personaly I only pray the death count won't reach the one thousand threshold, & the infected doesn't reach 10k, however I'm quite pessimistic regarding this, personaly I'm already imotionaly prepared for one thousand deaths after few weeks or months, & if this happens & with economic activity nearly shut down.. don't be surprised if China enters a recesion this year, the virus is related to SARS but it's different from it, it's a new one & it's mutating..some members say the fact that symptoms only appear after two weeks is a good thing.. yeah sure it's a good thing for those who wish harm for China because the virus is a silent killer that won't start having clear symptoms till after maximum infection occurs, it would have been far much better if the symptoms would appear on day one this way we could find the infected much quicker & isolate them.

 

[vesicles]

yeah, even Xi Jinping said China is in a grave situation yet some people here say "guys it's just influenza or even less risky than influenza because X number of people die each year from influenza while in comparison only 80 died in few days from Wu flu".
if the number of deaths is the problem then don't worry.. tomorow the number of deaths will reach near 100 & seeing as how it's spreading like wildfire each day even with all this quarintine don't be surprised if in one week (more or less from now) it reaches 200.. people better take it seriously instead of sticking their head in the sand like an Ostrich, how long has it been since the measures began? 5 days maybe? & in this period 80 people died so if it keeps on spreading at the current rate each week 100 people will die, personaly I only pray the death count won't reach the one thousand threshold, & the infected doesn't reach 10k, however I'm quite pessimistic regarding this, personaly I'm already imotionaly prepared for one thousand deaths after few weeks or months, & if this happens & with economic activity nearly shut down.. don't be surprised if China enters a recesion this year, the virus is related to SARS but it's different from it, it's a new one & it's mutating..some members say the fact that symptoms only appear after two weeks is a good thing.. yeah sure it's a good thing for those who wish harm for China because the virus is a silent killer that won't start having clear symptoms till after maximum infection occurs, it would have been far much better if the symptoms would appear on day one this way we could find the infected much quicker & isolate them.

What do you think they should do, then? They've locked down Wuhan and the neighboring cities. They've told everyone across the country to stay at home. From all the clips on-line, all the empty streets everywhere suggest that people are doing exactly that. They've stopped public transportation in as far as Liaoning and Beijing.

The problem is that all those (5 million according to the latest estimate and assuming many infected), who got out of Wuhan before the lockdown, still had a chance to infect others before the order of lockdown was issued. Those who got infected before the lockdown will slowly begin to show symptoms and begin to get accounted for. This is why you will see the number to continue to go up for the next few days. These newly discovered cases are most likely reflecting the number of people getting infected BEFORE the lockdown took place, NOT because of the new infections. So you are not seeing the virus getting out of control. This is simply the remnant of the cases before the lockdown. So you will see the infected number to continue to go up for a few more days and then plateau and then go down as the lockdown and self-isolation take its effect.

Let's imagine we all take your position. Oh my God! It's a pandemic! The end of the world! This is the worst viral epidemic ever! Everyone is dying! What's next? Should we as uninfected individuals do anything different than what we have been doing now? Should we stop going to work? Should we start stockpiling food and guns and ammo to prepare for an apocalypse? Should we activate our backyard shelters? If that's not helping, should they start throwing everyone in Wuhan in fires and burn everyone to crisp like how they deal with the chicken flu? How do you propose to deal with this "civilization ender" if you disagree with what we are doing?

Again, seriously. Wash your hands. Wash your face. Don't go to crowded places. Stay at home when you can. Wear masks when you can. Stay at home and rest when you have mild symptoms. Go to the hospital when you develop serious flu-like symptoms. Call hospital ahead of time and let them prepare. Stay calm. Go about your life as usual. Why is this message so hard to get across. Getting everyone panicked won't help anyone and won't solve any problems.

 

[adiru]

yeah, even Xi Jinping said China is in a grave situation yet some people here say "guys it's just influenza or even less risky than influenza because X number of people die each year from influenza while in comparison only 80 died in few days from Wu flu".
if the number of deaths is the problem then don't worry.. tomorow the number of deaths will reach near 100 & seeing as how it's spreading like wildfire each day even with all this quarintine don't be surprised if in one week (more or less from now) it reaches 200.. people better take it seriously instead of sticking their head in the sand like an Ostrich, how long has it been since the measures began? 5 days maybe? & in this period 80 people died so if it keeps on spreading at the current rate each week 100 people will die, personaly I only pray the death count won't reach the one thousand threshold, & the infected doesn't reach 10k, however I'm quite pessimistic regarding this, personaly I'm already imotionaly prepared for one thousand deaths after few weeks or months, & if this happens & with economic activity nearly shut down.. don't be surprised if China enters a recesion this year, the virus is related to SARS but it's different from it, it's a new one & it's mutating..some members say the fact that symptoms only appear after two weeks is a good thing.. yeah sure it's a good thing for those who wish harm for China because the virus is a silent killer that won't start having clear symptoms till after maximum infection occurs, it would have been far much better if the symptoms would appear on day one this way we could find the infected much quicker & isolate them.

Yeah if China enters a recession (or worse) because of this thing in 2020 then it means it wipes out 6% or more in GDP... which would set China back probably two to three years in its development progress...