Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

supercat

Major

LawLeadsToPeace

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They can use Fosun's mRNA vaccines before local mRNA vaccines are available. They can just buy a certain amount of doses to prevent foreign vaccines from dominating the market.
That depends on demand at the end of the day. What if everyone wants to get it because it is a foreign brand (yes, this is a phenomenon in China; good domestic brands get dumped for foreign brands just because of the name like *ahem* Nike)? Once it goes into the market, you can’t control the demand for it. China may have state controls over their economy, but even they can’t control the demand of the consumers.
 

KYli

Brigadier
The zero-Covid policy was a great success against the initial virus. However, the new Omicron variant is an entirely different virus with different characteristics. A lockdown against the new variants is neither going to be as effective, nor would it be as beneficial. As Covid continues to evolve, China's Covid policy needs to evolve along with it and be based on scientific data. The government should be pragmatic and reassess their policies instead of blindly continuing forward trying to apply the same solutions against an entirely different problem.
Let just talk about scientific aspect of pandemic. According to the Chinese government if they opened up now, at least 2 million extra Chinese would died of covid in the first year. Let compare with South Korea not Hong Kong as we are hoping the Chinese government could ramp up its vaccination rate and boosted the elderly before opening up.

South Korea after opening for a month daily deaths due to coivd is around 300 to 400. Let be conservative and take the 300 deaths and multiple by the 365 days and we come up with approximately 109500 deaths for the first year. China has roughly 30 times more people than SK so 3 million deaths in the first year. Of course we should take into consideration that in the summer there would be less deaths so two millions deaths in the first year according the Chinese government seems to be reasonable estimation.

So the first question is, are you willing to let 2 million extra Chinese to died in the first year just so you can open up because if it is just a bad flu, the death toll would be only a tenth of 2 million.

After that, we look into the cost of opening up. Conservative estimation that 2% severe cases and China would have 15 million people that require hospitalizations and the minimal cost of treating such patients would be 200,000 yuan per person. So we are talking about 3 trillion yuan to treat these people which of course might not happen as China doesn't even have that much hospital beds to begin with. Pfizer is costing 2000 yuan per treatment so 100 million vulnerable people require such pills would be 2000 billion yuan.

So the second question is, what do you do when hospitals can't handle the surge. Even if you are willing to spend the trillions yuan to treat these patients but the Chinese hospitals simply don't have the capacity to treat such patients. For Hong Kong, it gave up the elderly and let them dead without any treatment and ICU. It is heartbreaking but the only way to prevent a surge to overwhelm the hospitals. So if you opened up, then you have to make a decision to allow more deaths. So we are looking at not 2 million deaths but much much more.

So the third question is the lost of productivity, there is estimation that it is between 1% to 5% due employees out sick for covid or recovery from covid. Is the economic benefits really that great as we know the West has shortages of labors and lost of productivity even after reopening.
 
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PeoplesPoster

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本土病例1284例 new symptomatic cases (Jilin 吉林890例 and Shanghai 上海322例)
本土21711例 new asymptomatic cases (Shanghai 上海19660例 and Jilin 吉林1546例)
How many asymptomatic cases are so much higher in Shanghai while symptomatic cases are higher in Jilin?

shouldnt Jilin have higher asymptomatic cases than Shanghai based on the their symptomatic cases?
 

KYli

Brigadier
How many asymptomatic cases are so much higher in Shanghai while symptomatic cases are higher in Jilin?

shouldnt Jilin have higher asymptomatic cases than Shanghai based on the their symptomatic cases?
Shanghai has a different way of categorizing asymptomatic cases than most other provinces. Same thing with how Shanghai not declared any high risk areas because Shanghai has a different standards than other provinces.

Other provinces vs Shanghai
Taking Beijing as an example, there are 2 or more local cluster outbreaks or more than 5 new local confirmed cases within 14 days, which is a high-risk area; Hunan, Sichuan and other places have more than 10 confirmed cases or occurrence within 14 days. Two or more clusters of epidemics are used as the criteria for determining high-risk areas; Shanghai has not announced the criteria for classifying risk levels for epidemic areas.


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【导读】 上海市卫健委4月7日通报:2022年4月6日0—24时,上海新增本土新冠肺炎确诊病例322例和无症状感染者19660例。其中15例确诊病例为此前无症状感染者转归,12例确诊病例和19027例无症状感染者在隔离管控中发现,其余在相关风险人群排查中发现。

据国家卫健委数据,4月5日,上海新增本土新冠肺炎确诊病例311例和无症状感染者16766例。健康时报记者据此前官方发布数据统计发现,3月以来,上海累计报告阳性感染者数量已超9万例,其中确诊病例3245例,无症状感染者数量为87586例。

国家卫健委官网疫情风险等级查询页面显示,截至4月6日17时,上海市共有13个中风险地区,分布在浦东新区、闵行区、嘉定区、崇明区以及黄浦区,全域无高风险区。

根据国务院联防联控机制《关于调整新冠肺炎疫情分区分级标准实施精准管控措施的通知》要求,各省、自治区、直辖市人民政府落实分区分级管控要求,尽快公布当前本省低风险、中风险、高风险县(市、区、旗)名单,并将动态调整的风险地区名单作为疫情防控工作措施日报告内容及时报送国家卫生健康委。

记者梳理发现,目前多地公布的对于中、高风险区域的具体划分标准不一,以北京为例,14天内新增2起及以上本地聚集性疫情或新增超过5例本地确诊病例,为高风险地区;湖南、四川等多地则以14天内出现超过10例确诊病例或发生2起及以上聚集性疫情作为高风险区判定标准;上海并未公布疫情区域风险等级划分标准。

累计报告阳性感染者超9万例的上海,为什么没有高风险区?“按照国家规定,风险等级是否调整的依据是确诊病例数量以及聚集疫情情况而不是感染者数量,结合人口规模、密度等实际,是否调整风险等级要由市疫情防控指挥部办公室综合评估才能确定。无症状感染者涉及区域不划定中高风险。”4月6日,上海市某区疾控工作人员谈了自己的看法。

记者据上海卫健委发布的数据梳理发现,目前上海已有的确诊病例轨迹遍布16个行政区域,其中浦东新区累计确诊病例超1000例,其余闵行区、徐汇区、黄浦区等15个行政区累计确诊病例在16-400不等。不过,具体病例所在小区详情并未公布。

目前上海是怎么划分风险区域的?据上海市卫健委主任邬惊雷介绍,上海依据核酸筛查结果,实行分区分类、网格化管理,进行阶梯式管控,划分封控、管控、防范三个区。报告有阳性感染者所涉及的居民小区(单位、场所)所在网格化的单元及毗邻网格化单元为封控区;有封控小区(单位、场所)所在街镇其他区域是管控区;浦东、浦南以及毗邻区除了封控区、管控区以外的其他区域为防范区。
封控区实施“区域封闭,足不出户、服务上门”,基本上要待在家里。感染者所涉及的楼栋实行14天的封闭管理措施(从3月28日开始计算);封控区内的其他区域,也就是整个小区,实行“7天封闭管理+7天社区健康管理”(从3月28日开始计算),当中要开展一定频次的检测,封闭管理期间要严格落实居家隔离措施。

“这样的划分主要是想能够分类管控,遏制疫情在社区的扩散和蔓延,尽量用最小的代价实现最大的防控效果,同时也希望最大限度地减少疫情对经济社会发展的影响。对于封控区、管控区、防范区实施动态调整,如果在管控区、防范区发现感染者,所在区域就要提升管理等级,同时落实相应管控措施。”邬惊雷表示。

据上海市卫健委4月6日消息,4月6日在全市范围内再开展一次核酸或抗原检测,在本次检测全部完成前,全市继续实行分区管控,除因病就医等外,严格落实“足不出户”。


CPC called upon party members to mobilize and help fight the outbreak.
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GlaxoSmithKline, Vir COVID-19 therapy is no longer authorized in U.S. - FDA​


The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said on Tuesday that Sotrovimab — the COVID-19 antibody therapy developed by GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:
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) and Vir Biotechnology (NASDAQ:
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) — is no longer authorized in the U.S. due to a surge in cases caused by the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant.

Issuing a statement, the federal agency said that the authorized dose of Sotrovimab was unlikely to be effective against the highly contagious variant, which has
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strain of COVID-19 in the U.S., according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said on Tuesday that Sotrovimab — the COVID-19 antibody therapy developed by GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:
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) and Vir Biotechnology (NASDAQ:
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) — is no longer authorized in the U.S. due to a surge in cases caused by the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant.

Issuing a statement, the federal agency said that the authorized dose of Sotrovimab was unlikely to be effective against the highly contagious variant, which has
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strain of COVID-19 in the U.S.,
according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
 
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