But in REALITY, nobody is going walk up to you and Cough in your Face.....
Let's say hypothetically,
@HybridHypothesis is
Un-vaccinated and wearings a face-mask..... He goes grocery shopping and bumps into a friend in the store, and talks to you. This friend has COVID! but is wearing a mask too.
The probability of you (un-vaccinated person) getting infected is pretty low, likely 1-5% right? (hypothetically for simplicity sake)
| Probability of Infection for Un-vaccinated person being coughed on by Gweilo (from story above) | Pfizer Vaccine Efficacy against Delta-variant | Probability of Infection for a Vaccinated person being coughed on by Gweilo | % Difference (Unvax vs. Vaxxed) |
|---|
| 1% | 42% | 0.01*(1-0.42)=0.6% | 0.4% |
| 2% | 42% | 0.02*(1-0.42)=1.2% | 0.8% |
| 3% | 42% | 0.03*(1-0.42)=1.7% | 1.3% |
| 4% | 42% | 0.04*(1-0.42)=2.3% | 1.7% |
| 5% | 42% | 0.05*(1-0.42)= 2.9% | 2.1% |
(Phead128 analysis.... vaccinated have lower probability of infection compared to unvaccinated, but not by that much.
For Moderna, we will do the same calculations if you were vaccinated with Moderna against Delta-variant.
| Probability of Infection for Un-vaccinated person being coughed on by Gweilo (from story above) | Moderna Vaccine Efficacy against Delta-variant | Probability of Infection for a Vaccinated person being coughed on by Gweilo | % Difference (Unvax vs. Vaxxed) |
|---|
| 1% | 76% | 0.01*(1-0.72)=0.3% | 0.7% |
| 2% | 76% | 0.02*(1-0.72)=0.6% | 1.4% |
| 3% | 76% | 0.03*(1-0.72)=0.8% | 2.2% |
| 4% | 76% | 0.04*(1-0.72)=1.1% | 2.9% |
| 5% | 76% | 0.05*(1-0.72)= 1.4% | 3.6% |
(vaccinated lower, but not by that much)
You can see, even though Moderna is superior to Pfizer, 76% risk-reduction compared to unvaccinated compared to only 42% risk-reduction.... the actual probability of infection for an vaccinated person isn't that much different. That's because the low-probability of infection for unvaccinated to begin with. Vaccine efficacy is a % risk reduction of a fraction, and if that fraction is low to begin with, then it doesn't matter if a vaccine is +30% better than another vaccine.... The rates are very low either way.
That's why with social-distancing and mask wearing, the effective difference between Chinese vaccines and Western vaccine is very small and don't matter in the real world, since the baseline infection rate for unvaccinated is very low with lockdowns/restrictions.
Conclusion: Get any vaccine, any risk-reduction is better than no risk-reduction, and all vaccines offer similar protection at low-risk transmission scenarios regardless of +30% differences in vaccine efficacy.
Chinese vaccines are NOT inferior in low-risk transmission scenarios, even if it's +30% less efficacy than Pfizer/Moderna. The difference literally doesn't matter in low-risk transmission scenarios.
Thank you friends for your time and reading my long posts!
Best,
Phead128
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