Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Jura The idiot]

my third :-( and final guess:

nitty-gritty:
y = a/(exp(-k*(DAY - xc))*(d - 1) + 1)^(1/(d - 1));
"a" is 61598 with the standard error of 3451
"xc" is 14.273
"d" is 1.2783
"k" is 0.17074
DAY as in the graph


for tomorrow (Feb 13) it says 47598

 

[antiterror13]

my third :-( and final guess:

nitty-gritty:
y = a/(exp(-k*(DAY - xc))*(d - 1) + 1)^(1/(d - 1));
"a" is 61598 with the standard error of 3451
"xc" is 14.273
"d" is 1.2783
"k" is 0.17074
DAY as in the graph


for tomorrow (Feb 13) it says 47598

do you keep revising the formulae based on the actual? ... finally the formulae would be correct then

 

[Jura The idiot]

do you keep revising the formulae based on the actual? ... finally the formulae would be correct then

LOL once it's over, I'll be able to figure what I should've used, if there's no new source making this effort futile

now specifically what I do is I picked a certain

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with only four parameters, two of which have a clear meaning:

one is the upper asymptote = max. number of cases, another is the inflection point = a turn,

and I've kept the functional form, but the solution is pretty sensitive to a choice of the points for the fit:

at first (Sunday at 1:30 PM) I didn't consider an initial buildup and the solution underestimated the top asymptote,

then a member told me I should, but that solution overestimated current (last two days) numbers (Today at 7:11 AM),

so I refitted Today at 8:17 AM

to see the inflection point around Feb 6, which seemed reasonable based on
supercat, Today at 4:38 AM

...

2/5: confirmed 3,694 ...

2/6: confirmed 3143 ...

2/7: confirmed 3399 ...

and will let it be

 

[shanlung]

The Western propaganda machine never misses an opportunity to stab China in the back, and when it doesn't have an opportunity, it simply lies or creates one.

See what they created.
By NED and 5 eyes and associated NGOs maybe.
Or the $$$ that they pumped in for that.
The evilness and spiteful viciousness beyond the pale.
Even worse than the money they pumped into HongKong rioters to burn people speaking against them the the mindless destruction of public properties.
In the name of FREEDOM AND FIGHTING FOR DEMOCRACY
Waving flags of USA and UK, the vampires of China a hundred years back.
They might as well wave the flag of the Rising Sun.

Into my WhatsApp.
GRUESOME AND NASTY AND FAKED BY EVIL VICIOUS UNHUMANS

Over 25,000 killed they have started shooting down all the people with the virus in China ( video shared by a reliable source in China )

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See and be disgusted

 

[Quickie]

Boy imagine if the US gets hit with an infectious virus. Will the MSM cry for ouster of the government in Washington with this kind of incompetency?

A US patient infected with the coronavirus was accidentally released from the hospital after initial tests failed to pick up symptoms.

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The MSM will report on the incident alright, but the urgency to be critical of the U.S. health authorities and the U.S. government for being so lax and not proactive will suddenly be lost on them because a western democratic country like the U.S. can do no wrong.

One can just hope that it won't be like in 2009 when, unfortunately to the detriment of the health and even the life of the people of the world, most of them didn't even know there was such a thing as the 2009 swine flu outbreak in the U.S. It's like the U.S. had some sort of hypnotic power on people that they could get away from any kind of blame for the outbreak causing thousands of death in the U.S. and around the world with the excuse that a new unknown virus outbreak was naturally impossible to be contained.

 

[Gatekeeper]

This headline from the Guardian today

"Coronavirus: outspoken academic blames Xi Jinping for ‘catastrophe’ sweeping China".

It doesn't take long to lay the blame right at the president's door steps!

These headlines from SCMP

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Coronavirus: How the outbreak is testing China’s vaunted surveillance technology

And

Coronavirus: Li Wenliang’s death prompts academics to challenge Beijing on freedom of speech

And this from the BBC


Coronavirus: China's Xi visits hospital in rare appearance amid health crisis

As if he is too scare to come out.

Its not that difficult to find these headlines, all I did was search with "China coronavirus". That's all.

The negativities I can understand (not that I agree). They are after all, doing their job of cheerleading. And we, the members here understand this

But, at this moment in time? Also, some of the negativities begining, if not already crossed the line of human decency. It is blaten hostility towards a group of people that have never brought you any harm!

It is little wonder why we, of the Chinese descend find this baffling and annoying. It is also why, we of the Chinese descend keeps together, and support our former country as seen on here by how many Chinese people outside China showed their support, in this her darkest hours.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Sorry guys. I did not mean to be the one to get several of you off topic. Just trying to say why so many people tested positive for Covid-19 (new official name for 2019-nCov) on the Diamond Princess quarantined in Japan.

Again, my apology.

Lighten up, nobody's complaining

 

[SampanViking]

Sorry guys. I did not mean to be the one to get several of you off topic. Just trying to say why so many people tested positive for Covid-19 (new official name for 2019-nCov) on the Diamond Princess quarantined in Japan.

Again, my apology.

My two penneth on this is that a that the passengers on these Cruise ships are typically over 60; often very much over 60 and thus are a concentration of older people, often with underlying health issues. These are also a generation that are likely to have been or still be heavy smokers.

I also think that Smoking is a key factor in the lethality of Covid -19 as it is a lung attacking disease.
One reason why I think East Asians seem so susceptible to the condition is not due to conspiracy theory bio warfare targeting, but that in the Far East smoking is still far more socially acceptable than it now is, in the West.

I do wonder if an outbreak such as this will be the jolt that starts the end of the Asian love affair with tobacco?

 

[Dolcevita]

Well, I guess I'm one of those self and lazy people...

My wife and I love cruises. We go on cruises all the time despite we are in our mid-40's. We took our first cruise about 18 years ago with family and fell in love with it. We usually get a cabin with a balcony. I have to admit that we are lazy. With a cruise ship, you have a hotel and a restaurant traveling together with you. To us, that's very convenient. And yes, that's because we are lazy. AND also cheap! For a relatively reasonable price, we get decent food and board.

I'm not so sure about the "selfish" part though... Cooking food, finding accommodation and entertainment ourselves seem to be the things we have been doing everyday at home... On a cruise, for about 5-7 days, we would like to forget about all these things and just get pampered and enjoy ourselves. I would like my vacation to be stress-free so that we can relax, enjoy what we cannot at home and do something different for once. It sounds like a good deal to us, at least.

I have to admit that we are not as cultured as some others. My wife and I seem to care less about experiencing different cultures and education. Let's face it, both of us have spent 2/3 of our lives getting formal education and continuously getting additional education of all sorts everyday at work and at home. We can skip some of that for a week out of 4-5 years (yes, that's how often we take vacation. Pathetic? Yes...). We seem to care more about de-stressing, maybe because we have been under so much stress and pressure at work... It seems that, nowadays, our dream day would be a whole day of doing nothing at all. A cruise trip lets us do just that... Going to bed whenever we want, waking up whenever we want, eat whenever and whatever we want, taking a nap whenever we want, AND doing nothing else. It seems to be a luxury for us nowadays...

I can appreciate your preference to just relax and enjoy a new environment where you can be carefree. You are on vacation after all. A common misconception though for many with inland vacation is it is too hectic and too much work to find restaurants, entertainment and accommodation, etc.

If I may suggest, do not feel obligated to have to see everything in a short period of time. I like to spend my vacation at one location for at least a week at a time, this allows me to relax and enjoy everything you love about the cruise. But at the same time, I have plenty of time to explore and discover a whole new world, enjoy the local cuisine, the art, the scenery, the music, etc. You also gain a new perspective on things we take for granted in our daily lives. You just need to be disciplined and avoid the common mistake of being obligated to see everything everywhere in the shortest time possible. Think of it as the biggest TV in real time.

On selfishness, I took my parents around the Grand Circle at a leisurely pace. It was a lot of work caring for them and I have to spend a lot of time dropping them at the entrance, waiting for them, or just resting with them. The easiest thing to do was to put them on the cruise ship and let them sleep at the cabin and let the crew feed them, etc. Sure it took a lot more effort taking care of them but it was so much worth it as they would not have been able to enjoy the trip on a guided tour as they would have just stayed in the bus. It was so much appreciated that now my cousins, family friends and sibling's friends are asking for copies of our itinerary.

Just a suggestion but of course, as Gatekeeper stated "To each his own."

 

[Hendrik_2000]

China's new coronavirus cases drop, world still scared
Community workers distribute free vegetables to members of households inside the residential compound, following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan
By Ryan Woo and John Geddie

BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - China reported on Wednesday its lowest number of new coronavirus cases in two weeks, bolstering a forecast by Beijing's senior medical adviser for the outbreak in the country to end by April - but fears of further international spread remained.

The 2,015 new confirmed cases took China's total to 44,653. That was the lowest daily rise since Jan. 30 and came a day after epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan said the epidemic should peak in China this month before subsiding.

His comments gave some balm to public fears and to markets, where global stocks surged to record highs on hopes of an end to disruption in the world's second largest economy.

But the World Health Organization (WHO) has likened the epidemic's threat to terrorism and one expert said that while it may be peaking in China, this was not the case beyond.

"It has spread to other places where it's the beginning of the outbreak," Dale Fisher, head of the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network coordinated by the WHO, said in an interview in Singapore. "In Singapore, we are at the beginning."

Singapore has 50 cases, including one found at its biggest bank, DBS <DBSM.SI>, on Wednesday that caused an evacuation at head office.

Hundreds of infections have been reported in dozens of other countries and territories, but only two people have died outside mainland China: one in Hong Kong and another in the Philippines.

China's latest figures also showed that the number of deaths on the mainland rose by 97 to 1,113 by the end of Tuesday.

But doubts have been aired on social media about how reliable the data is, after the government last week amended guidelines on classification.

A Chinese Drugmaker Has Started Mass-Producing an Experimental Drug for COVID-19
Bloomberg

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February 12, 2020, 5:35 AM UTC

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A Chinese drugmaker said it has started mass-producing an experimental drug from Gilead Sciences that has the potential to fight the novel coronavirus, as China accelerates its effort to find a treatment for the widening outbreak.

Suzhou-based BrightGene Bio-Medical Technology said in a statement filed to the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Tuesday night that it has developed the technology to synthesize the active pharmaceutical ingredients of remdesivir, Gilead’s drug that is a leading candidate to treat the highly-infectious virus that’s killed more than 1,000 people. The drug isn’t licensed or approved anywhere in the world yet.

Its stock surged 20% in Tuesday morning trading in Shanghai.

While BrightGene said that it intends to license the drug from Gilead, its move to start manufacturing at this early stage is highly unusual and a potential infringement of the American company’s intellectual property. It comes a week after Chinese researchers filed an application to patent the drug to treat the new coronavirus, a bid that would give China sway over the global use of the therapy to fight the outbreak.

Large areas of China have been paralyzed by the coronavirus epidemic, and Gilead’s drug is seen as a potential breakthrough after it showed signs of working on infected patients in the U.S. Chinese researchers are now testing the drug on 761 patients in clinical trials in Wuhan.

BrightGene said it will have to license the patent from Gilead, conduct clinical trials and procure regulatory approvals before it can sell the drug on the market. The technology it developed to make remdesivir may not be of much value if the drug fails to produce ideal results from the ongoing clinical trials, or if the epidemic comes under control soon, it said.

Gilead did not immediately respond to a request for comment on BrightGene’s announcement. Last week, the company said it invented remdesivir and has patented it in China, including filing patent applications for use on coronaviruses. The company also said that it is working with Chinese, U.S. and World Health Organization officials to rapidly determine whether the drug can be used to treat the virus.

BrightGene did not immediately respond to Bloomberg queries on its remdesivir production.