It's just a matter of time. Demand and supply.
COMAC C919
- Thread starter Deino
- Start date
I'm calling BS on this. There's nothing magical about commercial aviation from a technology point of view. China can build military jets, cargo aircraft, and also space vehicles. Building a passenger aeroplane isn't exactly pushing the envelope. The main issue is more commercial than technical, but the key thing China has that it didn't have 20-30 years ago is a large, prosperous domestic market for these technologies to mature and evolve before emerging into the global marketplace. Now, China has a huge domestic aviation market where she can perfect her product. A viable domestic high-pass turbofan is the last major engineering hurdle - something that Chinese aerospace hasn't really needed to date, being focused mainly on military products, but it's certainly not beyond the ability to Chinese industry to develop one, and they are in the works at the moment.
As for safety, no manufacturer is immune to these issues, and the aviation industry knows it. China has gained a lot of experience from the Xian MA-x00 turboprop programme in diagnosing and resolving safety issues, and lessons will have been learned from that which have doubtless been worked into the C919 programme from the get-go.
Using western parts is an essential step on the way to indigenous development. Over time, newer versions of the C919 will doubtless use less parts, as benchmarks can be established and the real world behaviour of the design studied and diagnosed. Should western suppliers become problematic, this process can be sped up (less than ideal, but doable) or sourced from elsewhere. It should be remembered that the west isn't monolithic, and European governments have always been happier to deal with China than the USA. Even so there are many non-western suppliers in markets such as Brazil, Argentina, Russia, Ukraine, Iran etc.
Ryanair is an EU and not US company. The EU has always opposed American sanctions on China, and Ryanair doesn't operate in the US and has no intentions of doing so. While I don't think Ryanair is particularly likely to buy into the C919, the American issue is the least likely problem (especially as Biden has shown minimal interest in a trade way that would decimate Boeing if China pressured domestic airlines to drop Boeing orders, at the same time excluding GE from a potentially lucrative agreement).
The much more serious issue for Ryanair is that it is completely invested in Boeing, and is a hyper homogenised airline no even based on a single manufacturer, but a single *model*. Switching from the 737 would be incredibly painful for Ryanair. I suspect they want to encourage Comac to make a 200 seat model not so they can *actually* switch, but to have it as a Sword of Damocles hanging over Boeing to ensure Ryanair keep getting their 737s at firesale prices (which, given the MAX debacle and Covid19, they will anyway).
EASA will likely certify the C919, just as they certified the Sukhoi Superjet and the 737 MAX. Not to do so invites retaliation. Loosing certification for Airbus in China would be much worse for European manufacturers than having Comac in Europe.
it's amazing to see some of the largest airlines in the world operating only one model, Ryanair and the Southwest, only operate Boeing 737.
For Southwest, no complex hub-and-spoke network, just simple point-to-point routes; low operating and maintenance cost; large discounted purchase price. That's why for many years they were consistently the most profitable US airlines.
and their stewardess also work as janitors.
And entertainers too.
Yep. Exactly how Ryanair and EasyJet work too (entirely B737 and A320 family), including the "multi-tasking" cabin crew. Hub and Spoke is pretty much dead in Europe - even legacy carriers have heavily de-emphasised it. The LCC model here has pretty much completely taken over in the intra-EU market, to the extent the legacy carriers don't even really bother trying anymore - they've either split their operations in two and become LCCs themselves on European routes (the Aer Lingus tactic) or made heavy cuts to their short networks to focus mostly on long-haul - i.e. BA only fly twice a day between LHR and CDG.
I think people have to be a bit reasonable here and temper their expectations. Do not expect roaring sales off he ramp, most likely, this plane will only have domestic customers, but that's okay, the Chinese government and COMAC probably knew this from the get go. That is why they chose a narrow body plane suitable for regional routes to establish their foothold in commercial aviation industry; his route presents the path of least resistance, should foreign certification not be forthcoming, domestic certification would suffice. Nonetheless, china has been working on an agreement with EASA and FAA to recognize each others certifications. i believe the delay in recertifying 737 Max could be hostage awaiting the conclusion of such an agreement later this year( quite convenient for the c919 which expects to receive the same this year). This removes a massive barrier for c919.
The next phase for Comac will be establishing a reputation as a builder of reliable airplanes and establishing after sales support services. In 5-10 yrs , we should expect to see the next version of this plane and maybe the first to be pushed internationally. we should also expect efforts to establish a secondary market for the plane; airlines wont purchase your plane if they cant sell it on in the future to renew their fleet, this is where state banks and leasing companies will really come into play.
my last comment /prediction is on engines. i do not expect a domestic engine to be offered with the current model, rather, it will be an option on the next model, no point complicating things right now. should US-China relations continue to deteriorate, i expect Boeing to be gradually phased out/ pushed to a distant 3rd place in the china market, this will aim at driving a wedge between Europe and US and denying Boeing resources to develop future products, hence its position in the triopoly will become weak relative to Comacs. either way , this will be interesting.
The next phase for Comac will be establishing a reputation as a builder of reliable airplanes and establishing after sales support services. In 5-10 yrs , we should expect to see the next version of this plane and maybe the first to be pushed internationally. we should also expect efforts to establish a secondary market for the plane; airlines wont purchase your plane if they cant sell it on in the future to renew their fleet, this is where state banks and leasing companies will really come into play.
my last comment /prediction is on engines. i do not expect a domestic engine to be offered with the current model, rather, it will be an option on the next model, no point complicating things right now. should US-China relations continue to deteriorate, i expect Boeing to be gradually phased out/ pushed to a distant 3rd place in the china market, this will aim at driving a wedge between Europe and US and denying Boeing resources to develop future products, hence its position in the triopoly will become weak relative to Comacs. either way , this will be interesting.
I must've missed the big news. What breakthrough has China achieved in 2 years that it took the Dutch 2 decades?