COMAC C919

GiantPanda said:

For COMAC to satisfy just the domestic market in the next 20 years, it needs to build 450 aircraft per year. It is hoping to reach 150 C919s annually in 2028. Obviously, a lot of that demand will be filled by Airbus (many from Tianjin.)

But it is really a reflection of this market. COMAC doesn't have to export one plane to be successful. In fact, it doesn't need to take over the whole domestic market (and probably can't in next two decades) to be successful.

But like in autos, once China captures a large percentage (I say around 33-40%) of the domestic market its aircraft will be massively competitive in exports too because of economy of scale and world-class competition -- from the Tianjin Airbus plant -- just like domestic cars were honed by competition from JVs:

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If Boeing and Airbus are correct, then 75% of these new aircraft will be single aisle aircraft such as the C919.

Xiongmao said:

If Boeing and Airbus are correct, then 75% of these new aircraft will be single aisle aircraft such as the C919.

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Yes.

Some are even predicting in the region of 90% with narrow-bodies (main target of investment) getting more efficient. There is a trend now of using narrowbodies for Trans-Atlantic flights. You can see where that leaves the wide-bodies. Regionals basically have only one viable market globally and that is the US and use there is not increasing.

Modern narrow-bodies are squeezing out wide bodies and regionals at either ends of the spectrum.

Anyways, China already has the ARJ-21 for regional and C929/939 for wide-bodies.

C919 is the main product. COMAC has to get production right for this before anything else. If COMAC can scale to 150 by 2028, it would make them by far and away the third largest pole in the industry. Embraer in 2023 built only 39 commercial jets and those are smaller regional E-Jets unlike C919.

Side note, Embraer does a lot of high performance business jets which is a nice niche market. I don't think COMAC needs to go in here but it supplied by another AVIC company in China maybe branching off one of the defense ones.

GiantPanda said:

Embraer in 2023 built only 39 commercial jets and those are smaller regional E-Jets unlike C919.

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COMAC is about to hit these numbers in 2024.

30+ ARJ-21 and 7-8 C919.. so by next year they will become third largest civil aircraft manufacturer.

GiantPanda said:

Side note, Embraer does a lot of high performance business jets which is a nice niche market. I don't think COMAC needs to go in here but it supplied by another AVIC company in China maybe branching off one of the defense ones.

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AVIC introduced CBJ-800 business jet in 2016 but program has been delayed.. so there is a chance, COMAC might takeover this project.

last year in October, major decisions have been taken.. COMAC started full fledge R&D with multiple projects running simultaneously.

From what I read the CFM engines used currently by C919 weigh about a tonne more than the CFM engines on 737 Max and/or A320neo. CJ1000A cannot come quick enough for COMAC.

China Southern's first C919 lands at Zhuhai Jinwan Airport for the first time.

Air China's first C919 has completed its inaugural commercial flight.

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Air China's first C919 aircraft lands at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport, Sept. 10, 2024. (Photos: China News Service/Yin Liqin)

Air China will officially deploy its first C919 aircraft on two domestic routes on Wednesday, one from Beijing Capital International Airport to Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport ,and the other, from Beijing to Hangzhou.



Air China's first C919 aircraft taxies at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport, Sept. 10, 2024. (Photo: China News Service/Yin Liqin)



Air China's first C919 aircraft passes through a water gate at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport, Sept. 10, 2024. (Photo: China News Service/Yin Liqin)





Air China's first C919 aircraft arrives at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport, Sept. 10, 2024. (Photos: China News Service/Yin Liqin)



Passengers pose for photos with Air China's first C919 aircraft at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport, Sept. 10, 2024. (Photo: China News Service/Yin Liqin)

I'm truly impressed. Air China is already doing 4 legs on their lone C919. It's getting between 6 to 7 hours of block time. Not bad for such a new aircraft in service. Even now, China Eastern is only doing 3 to 4 legs on most of its aircraft.

a little update from me on the C919 project.


They are already ad 9 to 10 hour block time for some of these aircraft. That's quite regular